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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: PHL

1:00 PM | ****An icy mess early tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly corridor; especially, N/W suburbs…plain rain later along I-95 and some will be heavy…major Arctic outbreak into the US later next week****

Paul Dorian

A powerful storm that has caused problems in much of the nation in recent days will impact the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tonight into early Friday. Heavy snow associated with this impactful storm system fell this past weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California and southern Cascades. Significant snow then fell from Monday into Tuesday across the northern Rockies and Northern Plains and today’s blizzard conditions will extend east to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, in the warm sector of this large-scale storm system, severe weather including isolated tornadoes broke out yesterday from Texas/Oklahoma to Louisiana and the threat zone today will shift slightly to the east to include Mississippi and Alabama.

By late tonight, precipitation will break out in the Mid-Atlantic and an icy mess is on the table for early Thursday from DC-to-Philly; especially, in the northern and western suburbs of those cities. Increasingly strong easterly winds will pump in slightly milder maritime air later tomorrow bringing about a transition to plain rain and some of it will become heavy at times into the nighttime hours to go along with those strong winds. 

Looking ahead, a major Arctic air outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the frigid air mass will likely last stick around right through the Christmas weekend in much of the central and eastern US.  Arctic cold has gripped Europe for the past several days and this is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold weather pattern will remain quite active as well next week increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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7:00 AM | ***A wintry mix develops early tomorrow morning...small accumulations of snow/ice are likely with slick spots possible...plain rain later tomorrow/tomorrow night and it can get heavy***

Paul Dorian

A wintry mix of snow and ice pushes in early tomorrow morning from southwest-to-northeast likely arriving between about 7 and 9am in the Philly metro region. The movement of the precipitation means it will begin first in places like West Grove and Chadds Ford (Chester County) and last in places like Doylestown and New Hope (Bucks County). Small accumulations of snow and ice are likely tomorrow morning; especially, in the normally colder far northern and western suburbs…watch out for slick spots, the ground has been cold lately.

Low pressure will form over the Carolinas on Thursday and then intensify as it moves near or over the Delmarva Peninsula tomorrow night to a position just off Long Island by mid-day Friday. As the developing storm intensifies near the Delmarva Peninsula later tomorrow, easterly winds will increase here and pump in milder maritime air causing a changeover of the precipitation to plain rain. The rain can get quite heavy by tomorrow night and winds will be quite strong off the ocean with coastal flooding a possibility. The rain winds down on Friday morning and it turns colder this weekend.

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2:00 PM | ***Blizzard/severe weather today…an icy mess in parts of I-95 corridor early Thursday…significant snows interior Mid-Atl./NE US…widespread Arctic outbreak in US later next week***

Paul Dorian

A major storm system continues to wreak havoc across the nation today with blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the south-central US.  This same system dumped 6 feet of snow over the weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California. As this initial storm system grinds to a halt over the Upper Midwest later this week, a secondary storm will form near the eastern seaboard.  This system will bring significant snows to interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Thursday into Friday while the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is likely to experience a wintry mix at the onset of the event followed by heavy (plain) rain and strong winds. 

Looking ahead, an Arctic outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the biting cold will likely last right through Christmas weekend in the central and eastern states.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia which is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active later next week with storm chances increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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7:00 AM | ***Wintry mix on Thursday morning...can leave a small accumulation of snow and/or ice before a changeover to plain rain...heavy rain/strong winds on Thursday night***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure has pushed into the central states and will generate blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains with heavy snow and powerful winds.  This storm will push to the northeast tonight and the blizzard conditions will extend from the Dakotas and Minnesota into the northern half of Wisconsin. Meanwhile, on the storm’s warm side, severe weather is breaking out already today across Texas and Oklahoma and the threat will shift eastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from later today into Wednesday.

The initial primary surface low pressure system will grind to a halt and weaken as it reaches the Great Lakes due to a strong blocking pattern in the atmosphere over Canada.  This will lead to the development of a secondary storm system near the east coast on Thursday resulting in widespread precipitation on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region.  The precipitation will likely break out in the Philly metro region in the early-to-mid morning hours on Thursday and a small accumulation of snow and/or ice is on the table for the morning commute time or shortly thereafter. Precipitation will then change to plain rain on Thursday afternoon as easterly winds bring in some low-level milder air and the winds will kick up as well. In fact, heavy rain and strong easterly winds are possible on Thursday night as the storm intensifies near the coast.

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1:00 PM | ***Wintry mix at onset of late week storm system in Mid-Atlantic region…very cold pattern now across much of Europe/Asia…sets up across US later next week…active pattern continues***

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has become quite active and the latest storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation during the next few days.  In fact, this system has already contributed to several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades out west and blizzard conditions will develop on Tuesday across the northern Rocky Mountain states. By tomorrow night and Wednesday, this storm system will bring blizzard conditions to the and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 

At the same time, the warm sector of this storm will likely feature some severe weather from later tomorrow into Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.  On Thursday, the precipitation field from this impactful storm system will reach the Mid-Atlantic region and the onset is likely to feature a wintry mix - even into the I-95 corridor before an eventual changeover to plain rain.

Looking ahead, a very cold pattern is destined to develop across the central and eastern US later next week.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia – often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active as well increasing the chances for a White Christmas in much of the northern US.

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7:00 AM | **Wintry mix-to-plain rain the likely scenario on Thursday/Thursday night**

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will continue this week with a strong storm system wreaking havoc on much of the nation. Low pressure will intensify and push into the central states on Tuesday with blizzard conditions likely in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, in the storm’s warm sector, severe weather could break out later tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Lower Mississippi Valley including the possibility of tornadoes. The initial primary low pressure system will grind to a halt as it reaches the northern Great Lakes due to a strong blocking pattern in the atmosphere over central/northeastern Canada.  A secondary storm will likely then develop near the Delmarva Peninsula later in the week and this could result in a wintry mix at the onset of the event on Thursday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor followed by plain rain.

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7:00 AM | **A rain/snow mix possible here on Sunday...stronger system reaches us later next week**

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will feature a couple of storm systems to deal with between later this weekend and the end of next week.  The first low pressure system will form over the Midwest on Saturday and then push its precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. There may be enough cold air around for some snow; especially, across interior and higher elevation locations.  A stronger storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation next week with a possible severe weather outbreak on Tuesday in the Lower Mississippi Valley and a blizzard in the Northern Plains, This system could impact the Mid-Atlantic later next week and frozen precipitation may be in the mix. We’ll have to monitor the possibility of re-development of surface low pressure near the eastern seaboard as the initial primary low heads into strong blocking in the atmosphere over Canada.

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2:00 PM (Fri.) | ****Rain/snow in Mid-Atl. on Sunday…mid-week Northern Plains blizzard, MS/TN Valley severe weather threat...wintry mix possible in Mid-Atl. Thurs/Fri...…cross-polar flow****

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern across the nation will be quite active from later this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats. One low pressure system will form over the Midwest on Saturday and then its precipitation shield will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. Enough cold air will be around for snow on Sunday in much of the northern Mid-Atlantic with accumulations of up to a few inches likely in some interior and higher elevation locations. Another storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation next week with a possible severe weather outbreak late Tuesday/Tuesday night in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and blizzard conditions across the Northern Plains. This system and its precipitation field likely reaches the eastern states later next week and frozen precipitation will likely be in the mix: especially, if re-development of a surface low takes place near the east coast which could make for more of a serious winter storm threat in the Mid-Atlantic. The evolving pattern should feature more sustained cold air in the eastern states following that mid-to-late week storm system and “cross-polar flow” later this month will assure some very cold air masses reaching into North America.

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7:00 AM | **Active weather pattern...rain/snow mix is possible Sunday/Monday...another system next mid-week**

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will bring us multiple storm systems to deal with into the middle of next week.  One system will push out of the Midwest on Saturday and head to the Mid-Atlantic with precipitation from Sunday into early Monday. As this system drops south and east to the coastline late in the weekend, it can draw enough cold air for a combination of snow and rain; especially, across interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic. Another system can spawn a severe weather outbreak around next Tuesday in the Lower Mississippi Valley, and then its precipitation field will likely reach the Mid-Atlantic at the middle of next week. It may be cold enough for some frozen precipitation to be mixed in here with that system as well.

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12:30 PM | **Active pattern setting up with multiple storm threats in coming days…possible severe weather outbreak in the Lower MS Valley next week**

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern will be quite active from this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats in the northeastern US and a possible severe weather threat around Tuesday of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Cold air is trying to work its way into the northeastern US on a consistent basis, but likely won’t be able to until later next week. Nonetheless, there will be enough cold air around for a likely Sunday/Monday storm threat to at least produce a chance of accumulating snow in the northeastern states. Another storm system will likely arrive in the eastern states by the middle of next week and there may be enough cold air around for some frozen precipitation at the onset in portions of the Northeast US. More sustained cold air will follow later next week.

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