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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: PHL

7:00 AM | *Storm system gradually pulls away today...weekend and first half of next week quite chilly despite plenty of sunshine*

Paul Dorian

The coastal storm that spread precipitation into our region on Thursday will gradually push away this morning and there will be clearing skies by tonight.  High pressure edges this way and will control the weather through the weekend and right through the first half of next week. Temperatures will average below-normal for this time of year with highs generally doing no better than the 40 degree mark during the next several days despite plenty of sunshine. Late next week, a storm can form near the east coast at the leading edge of an incoming Arctic air mass…something we’ll need to monitor in coming days. Christmas weekend to follow is looking quite cold in the eastern half of the nation.

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12:45 PM | *****Record-breaking Arctic outbreak next week and a very cold looking Christmas weekend……major storm may precede the Arctic blast…significant snow next 24 hours interior Northeast US*****

Paul Dorian

A record-breaking Arctic air outbreak will blast into the US next week. This frigid air mass will spread south and east next week - no doubt breaking numerous low temperature records along the way - and reach the eastern states by week’s end. A very cold Christmas weekend is in store for much of the eastern half of the nation. In fact, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (Saturday, Sunday) could turn out to the coldest such in many years across much of the eastern half of the nation. With respect to snow chances, there may very well be a major storm system that forms on the leading edge of the Arctic blast at the end of next week in the eastern US which raises hope for a white Christmas in many locations.

Meanwhile, in the short-term, the major storm that has pounded much of the country in recent days with blizzard conditions in northern areas and severe weather in southern states is now impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.  Rain will be the dominate precipitation type from here on out in the immediate I-95 corridor to go along with increasingly strong easterly winds. Significant snow is on the table for upstate PA, upstate NY, and the interior part of New England with some spots likely to receive more than a foot. Following this storm, much of the nation will experience colder-than-normal conditions this weekend with virtually coast-to-coast below-normal temperatures.

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6:30 AM | ***Wintry mix arrives early this morning...can cause slick spots; especially, in the N/W suburbs...plain rain later today and tonight and it can become heavy at times***

Paul Dorian

The precipitation field associated with a weakening storm system over the western Great Lakes and a newly developing secondary storm system over the Carolinas has arrived in the Philly metro region and is advancing from southwest-to-northeast. There can be small accumulations of ice and/or snow; especially, in the northern and western suburbs…watch out for slick spots throughout the morning. Increasingly strong easterly winds will develop later today as the low pressure system intensifies near the coast and this will pump in slightly milder maritime air leading to a transitioning of any wintry mix to plain rain by afternoon. The rain can get heavy later today and tonight to go along with those strong winds.  Temperatures will hold steady or even rise slightly tonight so I do not expect a freeze-up in the overnight hours.  The rain winds down tomorrow morning and the weekend will turn gradually colder and below-normal for this time of year.  

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1:00 PM | ****An icy mess early tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly corridor; especially, N/W suburbs…plain rain later along I-95 and some will be heavy…major Arctic outbreak into the US later next week****

Paul Dorian

A powerful storm that has caused problems in much of the nation in recent days will impact the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tonight into early Friday. Heavy snow associated with this impactful storm system fell this past weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California and southern Cascades. Significant snow then fell from Monday into Tuesday across the northern Rockies and Northern Plains and today’s blizzard conditions will extend east to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, in the warm sector of this large-scale storm system, severe weather including isolated tornadoes broke out yesterday from Texas/Oklahoma to Louisiana and the threat zone today will shift slightly to the east to include Mississippi and Alabama.

By late tonight, precipitation will break out in the Mid-Atlantic and an icy mess is on the table for early Thursday from DC-to-Philly; especially, in the northern and western suburbs of those cities. Increasingly strong easterly winds will pump in slightly milder maritime air later tomorrow bringing about a transition to plain rain and some of it will become heavy at times into the nighttime hours to go along with those strong winds. 

Looking ahead, a major Arctic air outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the frigid air mass will likely last stick around right through the Christmas weekend in much of the central and eastern US.  Arctic cold has gripped Europe for the past several days and this is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold weather pattern will remain quite active as well next week increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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7:00 AM | ***A wintry mix develops early tomorrow morning...small accumulations of snow/ice are likely with slick spots possible...plain rain later tomorrow/tomorrow night and it can get heavy***

Paul Dorian

A wintry mix of snow and ice pushes in early tomorrow morning from southwest-to-northeast likely arriving between about 7 and 9am in the Philly metro region. The movement of the precipitation means it will begin first in places like West Grove and Chadds Ford (Chester County) and last in places like Doylestown and New Hope (Bucks County). Small accumulations of snow and ice are likely tomorrow morning; especially, in the normally colder far northern and western suburbs…watch out for slick spots, the ground has been cold lately.

Low pressure will form over the Carolinas on Thursday and then intensify as it moves near or over the Delmarva Peninsula tomorrow night to a position just off Long Island by mid-day Friday. As the developing storm intensifies near the Delmarva Peninsula later tomorrow, easterly winds will increase here and pump in milder maritime air causing a changeover of the precipitation to plain rain. The rain can get quite heavy by tomorrow night and winds will be quite strong off the ocean with coastal flooding a possibility. The rain winds down on Friday morning and it turns colder this weekend.

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2:00 PM | ***Blizzard/severe weather today…an icy mess in parts of I-95 corridor early Thursday…significant snows interior Mid-Atl./NE US…widespread Arctic outbreak in US later next week***

Paul Dorian

A major storm system continues to wreak havoc across the nation today with blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the south-central US.  This same system dumped 6 feet of snow over the weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California. As this initial storm system grinds to a halt over the Upper Midwest later this week, a secondary storm will form near the eastern seaboard.  This system will bring significant snows to interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Thursday into Friday while the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is likely to experience a wintry mix at the onset of the event followed by heavy (plain) rain and strong winds. 

Looking ahead, an Arctic outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the biting cold will likely last right through Christmas weekend in the central and eastern states.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia which is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active later next week with storm chances increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.

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7:00 AM | ***Wintry mix on Thursday morning...can leave a small accumulation of snow and/or ice before a changeover to plain rain...heavy rain/strong winds on Thursday night***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure has pushed into the central states and will generate blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains with heavy snow and powerful winds.  This storm will push to the northeast tonight and the blizzard conditions will extend from the Dakotas and Minnesota into the northern half of Wisconsin. Meanwhile, on the storm’s warm side, severe weather is breaking out already today across Texas and Oklahoma and the threat will shift eastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from later today into Wednesday.

The initial primary surface low pressure system will grind to a halt and weaken as it reaches the Great Lakes due to a strong blocking pattern in the atmosphere over Canada.  This will lead to the development of a secondary storm system near the east coast on Thursday resulting in widespread precipitation on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region.  The precipitation will likely break out in the Philly metro region in the early-to-mid morning hours on Thursday and a small accumulation of snow and/or ice is on the table for the morning commute time or shortly thereafter. Precipitation will then change to plain rain on Thursday afternoon as easterly winds bring in some low-level milder air and the winds will kick up as well. In fact, heavy rain and strong easterly winds are possible on Thursday night as the storm intensifies near the coast.

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1:00 PM | ***Wintry mix at onset of late week storm system in Mid-Atlantic region…very cold pattern now across much of Europe/Asia…sets up across US later next week…active pattern continues***

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has become quite active and the latest storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation during the next few days.  In fact, this system has already contributed to several feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades out west and blizzard conditions will develop on Tuesday across the northern Rocky Mountain states. By tomorrow night and Wednesday, this storm system will bring blizzard conditions to the and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 

At the same time, the warm sector of this storm will likely feature some severe weather from later tomorrow into Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.  On Thursday, the precipitation field from this impactful storm system will reach the Mid-Atlantic region and the onset is likely to feature a wintry mix - even into the I-95 corridor before an eventual changeover to plain rain.

Looking ahead, a very cold pattern is destined to develop across the central and eastern US later next week.  Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia – often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US.  The cold pattern will remain quite active as well increasing the chances for a White Christmas in much of the northern US.

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7:00 AM | **Wintry mix-to-plain rain the likely scenario on Thursday/Thursday night**

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will continue this week with a strong storm system wreaking havoc on much of the nation. Low pressure will intensify and push into the central states on Tuesday with blizzard conditions likely in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, in the storm’s warm sector, severe weather could break out later tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Lower Mississippi Valley including the possibility of tornadoes. The initial primary low pressure system will grind to a halt as it reaches the northern Great Lakes due to a strong blocking pattern in the atmosphere over central/northeastern Canada.  A secondary storm will likely then develop near the Delmarva Peninsula later in the week and this could result in a wintry mix at the onset of the event on Thursday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor followed by plain rain.

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7:00 AM | **A rain/snow mix possible here on Sunday...stronger system reaches us later next week**

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will feature a couple of storm systems to deal with between later this weekend and the end of next week.  The first low pressure system will form over the Midwest on Saturday and then push its precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. There may be enough cold air around for some snow; especially, across interior and higher elevation locations.  A stronger storm system will wreak havoc across much of the nation next week with a possible severe weather outbreak on Tuesday in the Lower Mississippi Valley and a blizzard in the Northern Plains, This system could impact the Mid-Atlantic later next week and frozen precipitation may be in the mix. We’ll have to monitor the possibility of re-development of surface low pressure near the eastern seaboard as the initial primary low heads into strong blocking in the atmosphere over Canada.

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