The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the Philly metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. The day should feature lots of clouds and scattered showers…perhaps a late day thunderstorm. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night as the “back door” cool front turns around and pushes to the north as a warm front. Any storm that occurs tonight through tomorrow night can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn much warmer on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier in the week will not make a return. The weekend closes out with plenty of sunshine on Sunday, warm conditions, and a reduced chance of rain.
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The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be reduced here today compared to the recent high heat and then it’ll turn even cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).
There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.
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Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.
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The official high temperature yesterday recorded at Philly International Airport (PHL) was 101 degrees which broke a record for the date and was the first triple-digit reading since July 2012. The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure parked overhead during the past couple of days will begin to break down later today and also shift slowly to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and the combination of these two systems will allow for the formation of a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England over the next couple of days. As a result, relief is in sight here in terms of temperatures (70’s on Friday) and precipitation chances will be on the rise. There can be scattered shower and thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight and that threat of rain should increase some on Thursday. Any storm that forms either late today or on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region can reach strong-to-severe levels. Unsettled weather conditions will continue on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and a look ahead to next week suggests temperatures could be quite reasonable as the calendar shifts from June to July.
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There were some records tied or broken on Monday and a few spots reached the century mark; however, the peak of this current hot spell comes today with numerous 100-degree readings likely all along the DC-to-Boston corridor. In fact, it is possible that 100-degree readings are experienced later today in each state all the way from Maine-to-Florida. In Philadelphia on Monday, temperatures reached 99 degrees which broke the record for the date set just one year ago, and 100 degrees is certainly on the table for this afternoon which would be the first at “PHL” since July of 2012.
There is relief in sight for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and, in some cases, there can be a dramatic drop in temperatures following the passage of a back door cool front. The overall weather pattern becomes unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Wednesday afternoon and then increasing on Thursday...any thunderstorm that forms on either day can be strong-to-severe. Looking ahead to next week, overall temperatures look quite reasonable for much of the eastern half of the nation as the calendar transitions from June to July.
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Yesterday featured high temperatures near the 100 degree mark in many locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a record-breaking 99 degrees recorded at Philly International Airport (PHL). The bad news with respect to this current hot spell is that the peak may actually come later today with numerous 100 degree readings on the table in the I-95 corridor compared to Monday. The good news is that much relief is in sight by the end of the work week on Friday and next week looks much closer-to-normal in terms of overall temperatures.
The last time Philadelphia officially reached 100 degrees at the International Airport (PHL) was on July 18th, 2012…and it could happen again later today. The very strong ridge of high pressure to our north will weaken later in the week and also shift southward. As a result, the heat will not be as intense here on Wednesday and there will be a chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures drop even further on Thursday as a back door cool front approaches the region and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase. Any thunderstorm that forms on both Wednesday and Thursday can be strong-to-severe. This back door cool front could actually bring much relief by Friday as an ocean flow of air could develop and end the work week on a cool note.
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High heat and humidity will be the rule for the next few days in the Mid-Atlantic region with very strong high pressure ridging in control. Temperatures will climb right through the 90’s on Monday and Tuesday and flirt with the 100-degree mark in some locations. The last time Philadelphia officially reached 100 degrees at the International Airport (PHL) was on July 18th, 2012. The strong ridge tends to weaken later in the weak - beginning on its northern perimeter - and this should lead to afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around here beginning at mid-week and that threat of PM rain likely lasts right through the weekend. There will be a reduction in temperatures later in the week as the ridge breaks down such that we’ll likely be back in the lower 80’s for highs by week’s end.
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Powerful thunderstorms barreled through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor late yesterday causing widespread damaging wind reports and power outages (e.g., ~250,000 customers without power in SE PA). The passage of the surface cold front has lead the way to noticeably lower humidity today in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be plenty of sunshine to go along with warm conditions.
The moderate humidity of today will give way to an extended stretch of high heat and humidity from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. A very strong ridge of high pressure that has been stuck out west in recent days will move into the eastern states by later this weekend. This repositioning of the strong upper-level ridge will lead to high temperatures well up in the 90’s for multiple days all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...perhaps some spots can reach the 100-degree mark during this stretch. One final note, there is a good chance for a complex of thunderstorms to drop southeastward across New York State and New England later this weekend and there is a slight chance it could produce a shower or thunderstorm in the Philly metro region on Sunday.
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Many ingredients are coming together to raise the chance of severe weather later this afternoon and evening in the Mid-Atlantic region. A strong surface cold front, high heat and humidity, and an impressive upper-level disturbance will help to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and there are likely to be strong-to-severe thunderstorms impacting the I-95 corridor somewhere between 2pm and 8pm. The cold front clears the coast by late tonight and Friday will turn out to be a less humid day featuring plenty of sunshine and warm conditions.
The moderate humidity expected on Friday will give way to an extended stretch of high heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. A very strong ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern states, and this will lead to high temperatures well up in the 90’s for multiple days all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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The atmosphere will become quite unstable later today with the approach of a surface cold frontal system combined with a disturbance in the upper part of the atmosphere. As a result, the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be high and any thunderstorm that forms can be severe with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts. There is also that chance in this expected thunderstorm activity for large hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Temperatures today will climb to uncomfortably warm levels near 90 degrees and the humidity will be a very noticeable factor as well.
After a sunny and warm day to end the work week, very strong high pressure ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere will push eastward this weekend. This system will end up directly overhead in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the early part of next week and likely stay put until at least the middle of next week. As a result, high heat and humidity is on the way for an extended period of time from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week.
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