“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
Read More
A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region last night and today will turn out to be a cooler day than yesterday with a noticeable breeze and a mix of clouds and sun. A secondary cold front passes through the area later tomorrow and the end result of these frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions from today right through the upcoming weekend.
Read More
The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Read More
One cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early yesterday and a second one arrives later tonight. This next cold front can cause some shower activity in the area during the nighttime hours, but nothing significant in terms of total rainfall amounts. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail on Wednesday behind the front to go along with increasing amounts of sunshine. Slightly cooler-than-normal conditions are likely to continue in the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday through the upcoming weekend with plenty of sunshine on each day.
Read More
There have been some notable storms near the east coast during the late stages of October and early parts of November including Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022 which made landfall in Florida. It is at this time of year where there can be a “last gasp” from the Atlantic Basin tropical season as water is still quite warm in places like the Caribbean Sea, and southwestern Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, there is often an increasing frequency of chilly air masses moving from Canada into the US warning us that winter is not too far away. It is this combination of a waning tropical season combined with increasingly winter-like chill that can cause volatile weather patterns in late October and early November and we could be setting up for something like that for late next week into the beginning of November.
Read More
After the passage of a strong cold front, the new work week will start with windy and cooler conditions with increasing amounts of sunshine…there can be a lingering early day shower. Weak high pressure pushes into the region later today and then another cold front heads our way late on Tuesday. This next front will not be quite as strong as the system that is crossing through the region this morning, but there can be a few showers to deal with during its passage on Tuesday night. High pressure resumes control for much of the second half of the week with breezy and cool conditions to prevail.
Read More
The work week will end on a cool note, but it turns milder this weekend ahead of the next cold front that crosses the area from Sunday night into Monday. Winds will increase markedly on Sunday ahead of the cold front and temperatures should climb into the low-to-mid 70’s to close out the weekend. Showers may pop at at the end of the day on Sunday with the arrival of the cold front and are quite likely on Sunday night. In fact, there can be a few downpours on Sunday night with this cold frontal passage and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two mixed in. High pressure will build back into the Mid-Atlantic region behind the front on Monday and another cold front approaches late Tuesday.
Read More
A cold front passed through the region late yesterday and ushered in a chilly air mass to the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will struggle to climb above the 60-degree mark for afternoon highs and there will be a noticeable breeze from a north-to-northwest direction. High pressure will be in control of the weather for right into the weekend and the next chance of showers likely holds off until late Sunday or Sunday night with the arrival of the next cold frontal system.
Read More
A cold front approaches the area later today and it should pass through on the dry side later tonight. This frontal passage will usher in a chilly air mass as high pressure edges into the region on Thursday and temperatures will struggle to climb past the 60-degree mark for afternoon highs. Winds will be quite noticeable on both sides of the cold front from later today through much of tomorrow night. High pressure pushes away from the region on Friday and a warm front could result in more cloud cover as we begin the weekend. The threat of showers is likely to return late in the weekend with the approach of another cold frontal system.
Read More
A coastal storm that has been impacting much of the Atlantic seaboard during the past few days will finally weaken and exit off to the east later today. Weather conditions will be slow to improve in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the mid-week should feature some sunshine in the area ahead of the next cold frontal system. That cold front will pass through the region on Wednesday night and it’ll usher in a chilly air mass with temperatures on Thursday likely to struggle to climb above the 60-degree mark for afternoon highs despite plenty of sunshine…there will be a noticeable northwest wind as well.
Read More
