The annual Perseid meteor shower is already underway and this year’s peak activity will come in the early morning hours of August 11-13 (Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday). The peak viewing this year will take place at a time when the moon is just past its last quarter phase (i.e., about 47% full) so it won’t be ideal, but not a deal breaker. The Perseid meteor shower comes every August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun.
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A potpourri of topics today ranging from another day with a strong thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region to an active Atlantic Basin tropical scene to an update on Comet NEOWISE which is making its closest approach to Earth later tonight. First, on the weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region, yet another wave of energy aloft will combine with considerable amounts of moisture in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere to bring another shot at strong storms later today and tonight. Second, on the tropics, an impressive tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely headed to the east coast of Texas by the early part of the weekend and it will result in heavy rainfall in that part of the southern US. A second tropical system, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, has run into a bit of dry air which has halted its intensification in recent hours as it continues to push towards the Caribbean Sea. A third tropical wave has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it may become an important player to monitor next week. Finally, Comet NEOWISE makes its closest approach to the Earth later tonight and it won’t be back around these parts for about 6800 years.
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The Solar Orbiter spacecraft represents an international collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA and was launched at Cape Canaveral on February 9, 2020 to study our closest star. The Solar Orbiter completed its first close pass of the Sun in mid-June and took the closest pictures ever from just over 47 million miles away (about half the distance from the Earth to the sun). These images will help scientists better understand the Sun’s many atmospheric layers and how it drives space weather near the Earth and throughout the solar system. Other images from the spacecraft will come later in the mission when the Solar Orbiter is even closer to the Sun.
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First, there was Comet ATLAS in April which disappointed sky watchers as it broke apart into pieces. Then there was Comet SWAN in May which also disintegrated. And now we have a third comet named NEOWISE and this one is coming through and could be visible until mid-August. In recent days, this comet has dazzled sky watchers and may be the brightest comet since 1997 (Hale-Bopp). The comet will be easier to see in coming days as it climbs in the evening sky towards the Big Dipper (aka Ursa Major).
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As Yogi Berra would say…”its déjà vu all over again”. First, there was Comet ATLAS in April which broke apart into pieces. Then there was Comet SWAN in May which also disintegrated. And now we have a third opportunity for a visible comet as NEOWISE is creating some hope as it plunges towards the sun. In fact, in the last couple of days, Comet NEOWISE has nearly tripled in brightness raising expectations for an unaided eye view when it emerges from the sun’s glare in mid-July.
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Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) are the highest clouds on Earth and float near the edge of space in a layer of the mesosphere no more than a few kilometers thick. These unusual clouds are seeded by meteoroids and are quite rarely seen in the US as they are primarily detected in the higher latitudes above +55°N during the late spring or early summer. In 2020, NASA’s Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) spacecraft first spotted wisps of noctilucent or “night-shining” clouds over the Arctic region in the latter part of May. In recent days, however, these clouds have been seen in the continental US (Washington, Minnesota) and the growing chill aloft suggests this summer could be as good or maybe even better than last summer when records were set for low-latitude sightings. In fact, temperatures in recent days in the mesosphere layer of the atmosphere have be the lowest since 2007 when NASA’s AIM spacecraft began monitoring noctilucent clouds. Research studies have shown that these clouds tend to be more prevalent during solar minimums and we have been in the midst of one since last year.
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It has been 9 years since the US has sent its own astronauts into orbit, but that drought is expected to end on Wednesday with a Florida rocket launch…that is, if the weather permits and there is the threat of showers and thunderstorms. Should the launch take place on Wednesday, it will be a public-private partnership that returns the US to the business of human spaceflight. Not since the retirement of NASA’s space shuttle fleet in 2011 has the US possessed the capability to send its astronauts into orbit and the success of this week’s mission known formally as SpaceX Demo-2 may shape the direction of spaceflight for a generation. If the weather prevents the launch on Wednesday, another attempt will be made on Saturday and, if needed, a third attempt is set for Sunday.
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It was during the height of the Cold War and a powerful solar storm could have led to a disastrous military conflict between the US and Soviet Union if not for the early efforts of the US Air Force to monitor solar activity. On May 23rd, 1967, a solar storm took place that was so powerful, it jammed radar and radio communications in polar regions and the US Air Force actually began to prepare aircraft for war thinking the nation’s surveillance radars were being jammed by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, space weather forecasters in the military suspected there might be another cause and they relayed information about the possibility that a solar storm could have been the reason for the disrupted radar and radio communications. As it turned out, this information was enough to keep the planes on the ground and the US avoided a potential nuclear weapon exchange with the Soviet Union.
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The sun continues to be very quiet and it has been without sunspots 77% of the time this year which is the same exact percentage experienced during all of 2019. In fact, last year turned out to be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 with 281 spotless days as the solar minimum phase intensified from the year before. Back-to-back years of very high levels of spotlessness on the sun would certainly support the notion this is indeed a noteworthy and deep solar minimum. Solar minimum represents the end of solar cycle #24 which featured the fewest number of sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Some of the predictions for solar cycle #25 suggest that it may peak in July 2025 and continue the trend of weakening solar cycles that began around 1980 when solar cycle 21 peaked in sunspot activity.
One of the natural effects of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more and more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. In fact, one measurement indicates that cosmic ray activity is very close to an all-time high for the satellite era. The intensification of cosmic rays can have important consequences on such things as Earth’s cloud cover and climate, the safety of air travelers, and as a possible trigger mechanism for lightning.
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This information may fall under the “haven’t we heard this before” category, but there is a comet out there that may be visible during the next few weeks. Comet SWAN (C/2020 F8) was discovered in late March and it has now crossed the equator and is visible in the northern hemisphere. The comet has faded a bit since last week, but it is still a relatively easy binocular object in the hours just before sunrise at magnitude +6, but barely above the (northeastern) horizon.
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