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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Space Weather

8:15 AM | *NASA's Mars rover mission off to a great start...see numerous new images...listen to the Martian wind...one highlight of the mission will be the deployment of a mini-helicopter*

Paul Dorian

NASA’s fifth Mars rover, Perseverance, successfully landed on the red planet last Thursday, February 18th and it will remain there for nearly two years searching for ancient life and exploring the surface. There have already been several newly released images by NASA and you can actually listen to a ~10 mph wind on the red planet (see below). Perseverance is the most technologically advanced robot NASA has sent so far having traveled 293 million miles to reach the planet over the course of more than six months. One of the highlights of the mission will be the deployment of a 19 inch tall helicopter named “Ingenuity” which will become the first rotorcraft ever used beyond Earth.

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*Jupiter and Saturn continue to converge for a rare “Great Conjunction” on Monday, December 21st*

Paul Dorian

If you step outside tonight shortly after sunset and look to the southwest sky you should see Jupiter and Saturn quite close together. The two giant gas planets have actually been converging in recent weeks in terms of their appearance to us here on Earth and they will appear closest together on Monday, December 21st - the day of the winter solstice and the day of what is being called the “Great Conjunction”. In fact, it has been many, many centuries since the two giant gas planets have appeared so close together and have been so easy to see.

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7:15 AM | *Jupiter and Saturn are converging for a rare “Great Conjunction” on the day of the winter solstice - December 21st*

Paul Dorian

You may have already noticed two close together bright objects in the sunset sky in recent weeks which happen to be the giant gas planets of Jupiter and Saturn. These two planets are actually converging for an even closer encounter in terms of their appearance to us here on Earth - the likes of which haven’t been seen in many, many centuries. Jupiter and Saturn currently appear about 2 degrees apart and they will actually look only 0.1 degrees apart by the time we get to the winter solstice on December 21st - the day of the “Great Conjunction” of 2020.

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11:45 AM (Tuesday) | *Solar cycle 25 is underway and the number of sunspots is on the rise*

Paul Dorian

After a deep solar minimum, the number of sunspots on our nearest star has been on the increase in recent weeks heralding the new solar cycle #25. The last solar cycle, #24, was one of the weakest in terms of the number of sunspots in more than a century since solar cycle #14 peaked in February 1906 and it continued a downward trend in cycle strength since around 1980 when cycle #21 reached a peak. Many predictions of solar cycle #25 have it just about as weak as its predecessor with a peak likely to arrive sometime in the middle of 2025. Even weak solar cycles, however, can produce significant solar storms and it’s something we’ll monitor closely in coming months.

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7:15 AM | *Rocket launch scheduled for tonight at NASA/Wallops Island may be visible throughout the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

Just 100 miles up the coast from where the Wright brothers first flew their airplane at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, Northrop Grumman is scheduled to launch its Cygnus cargo spacecraft aboard the Antares rocket from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS), located at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. The rocket launch is scheduled for 9:38 PM Thursday, October 1st at NASA’s Wallops Island Facility and it may be visible throughout the Mid-Atlantic region (launch was originally scheduled for Tuesday, but was scrubbed due to rainy weather conditions).

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7:15 AM | *The “Carrington Event” of 1859...a massive solar storm and what it could mean in today’s world*

Paul Dorian

The sun continues to be quiet with no visible sunspots during the last eleven days and it has been without sunspots 68% of the time this year which is slightly less than the 77% experienced during all of 2019. In fact, last year turned out to be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 with 281 spotless days as the solar minimum phase intensified from the year before. Back-to-back years of very high levels of spotlessness on the sun would certainly support the notion that this is indeed a noteworthy and deep solar minimum. Solar minimum represents the end of solar cycle #24 which featured the fewest number of sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Some of the latest predictions for solar cycle #25 suggest that it may be about as weak as solar cycle #24 with a peak around July 2025. Even weak solar cycles, however, can produce significant solar storms. In fact, it was this same time of year back in 1859 when a super solar storm - now known as the “Carrington Event” - took place during another weak solar cycle (#10). The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth.

Recent studies have warned that these type of super solar storms may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies of solar superstorms leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts according to spaceweather.com, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. This skewed perceptions of “The Carrington Event” of 1859, highlighting its importance while causing other superstorms to be overlooked. A super storm of the same magnitude as “The Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.

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10:00 AM (Friday) | *Something Unusual Just Flew Past the Sun*

Paul Dorian

Courtesy spaceweather.com, NASA/SOHO:

On August 7th, an unusual object flew past the sun. "It was a triple comet," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC, who made this animation using coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). "The two main components are easy to spot, with the third, a very faint, diffuse fragment following alongside the leading piece," he says.

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10:00 AM | *The annual Perseid meteor shower peaks August 11-13*

Paul Dorian

The annual Perseid meteor shower is already underway and this year’s peak activity will come in the early morning hours of August 11-13 (Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday). The peak viewing this year will take place at a time when the moon is just past its last quarter phase (i.e., about 47% full) so it won’t be ideal, but not a deal breaker. The Perseid meteor shower comes every August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun.

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2:00 PM (Thurs.) | *Strong thunderstorm threat continues in the Mid-Atlantic…an active tropical scene with two systems to monitor…Comet NEOWISE makes is closest approach to Earth*

Paul Dorian

A potpourri of topics today ranging from another day with a strong thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region to an active Atlantic Basin tropical scene to an update on Comet NEOWISE which is making its closest approach to Earth later tonight. First, on the weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region, yet another wave of energy aloft will combine with considerable amounts of moisture in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere to bring another shot at strong storms later today and tonight. Second, on the tropics, an impressive tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely headed to the east coast of Texas by the early part of the weekend and it will result in heavy rainfall in that part of the southern US. A second tropical system, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, has run into a bit of dry air which has halted its intensification in recent hours as it continues to push towards the Caribbean Sea. A third tropical wave has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it may become an important player to monitor next week. Finally, Comet NEOWISE makes its closest approach to the Earth later tonight and it won’t be back around these parts for about 6800 years.

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7:15 AM (Monday) | *Closest images ever taken of the Sun...new "campfires" phenomenon already revealed*

Paul Dorian

The Solar Orbiter spacecraft represents an international collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA and was launched at Cape Canaveral on February 9, 2020 to study our closest star. The Solar Orbiter completed its first close pass of the Sun in mid-June and took the closest pictures ever from just over 47 million miles away (about half the distance from the Earth to the sun). These images will help scientists better understand the Sun’s many atmospheric layers and how it drives space weather near the Earth and throughout the solar system. Other images from the spacecraft will come later in the mission when the Solar Orbiter is even closer to the Sun.

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