The month of December is well underway and there have already been some impressive snow accumulations for the month in such places as the Upper Midwest, western US and, most recently, in a large swath from Texas to North Carolina/Virginia with the very latest major winter storm. As it turned out, the month of November ended up with the most snowfall ever recorded in North America during the satellite era which goes back to the 1960’s. Unusual cold for the month from Mexico-to-US-to-Canada contributed to this snowfall record in North America. The November snowfall extent in the Northern Hemisphere was the third highest ever recorded in the satellite era and continues an upward trend in recent years.
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The winter has gotten off to a fast start across much of the nation and it looks like the overall cold and stormy weather pattern will continue as we head through the first half of December. Colder-than-normal conditions have been widespread through the month of November so far and snowfall has been unusually early and unusually high in many places. Signs point to more widespread cold across the US during the first couple weeks of December and the next ten days may feature copious amounts of snow in many of the same areas that received snow earlier this month.
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It’s not too often that still-falling leaves can be seen on top of snow in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US as that would require an early snowfall during the latter part of October or November which is certainly less likely than during the winter season. This week’s abnormally cold and stormy weather pattern across the much of the eastern half of the nation has resulted in some unusual snowfall observations for the month of November. In fact, wintertime snowfall has actually been in a relatively long-term upward trend across the entire Northern Hemisphere with some of the snowiest winters recorded taking place during just the last decade.
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The sun is blank again today and has been without sunspots about 60% of the time this year as the current historically weak solar cycle heads towards the next solar minimum. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless. That last solar minimum actually reached a nadir in 2008 when an astounding 73% of the year featured a spotless sun - the most spotless days in a given year since 1913. All indications are that the fast-approaching next solar minimum may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century.
One of the natural consequences of a solar minimum is for the upper part of the Earth’s atmosphere to cool down. Another natural impact of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. The intensification of cosmic rays can have important consequences on such things as the safety of airline passengers and astronauts in space, Earth’s cloud cover and climate, and possibly even on lightning.
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Hurricane Lane weakened some in the past 24 hours as it has encountered increased southwesterly wind shear, but it remains a “major” category 4 storm as it slowly closes in on the Hawaiian Islands from the south. There is still a good chance that Hurricane Lane will not make actual landfall on any of the island chain; however, it'll still generate tremendous amounts of rainfall on parts of the state and some sections can experience hurricane conditions (e.g., Maui, Oahu). The fact that it is a slow mover and will come close to the island chain will allow for a prolonged period of torrential rainfall, especially, on windward facing slopes with up to two or three feet possible on the Big Island. This is very likely not going to be the last tropical threat for Hawaii this season as warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a developing El Nino in the central Pacific Ocean will likely aid in the formation of additional systems in coming days.
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In general, the Pacific Ocean has had more tropical activity this season compared to the Atlantic Basin and that trend should continue in the near term. Sea surface temperatures are playing a role in this trend and they are currently warmer-than-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii with a major hurricane headed in that direction. Fortunately, Hurricane Lane is likely to not make a direct hit on the islands and it should undergo steady weakening in coming days due to increasing amounts of wind shear. Nonetheless, Hurricane Lane will be a formidable storm for the state of Hawaii with potential significant impact in terms of rainfall; especially, on the Big Island. This is very likely not going to be the last tropical threat for Hawaii this season as warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a developing El Nino in the central Pacific Ocean will likely aid in the formation of additional systems in coming days.
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It was shortly after noon on August 24th in the year 79 A.D. and Mount Vesuvius sent a tall cloud of steam and ash high up into the atmosphere. The ancient Roman town of Pompeii near modern day Naples was soon covered in complete darkness and the thickness of the falling debris increased by about 6 to 8 inches per hour. The rocks which comprised the debris were up to 3 inches in diameter and fell with a speed of up to 100 miles/hour. This first phase of the eruption led to casualties primarily caused by roof collapses. After 12 hours of continuous explosive activity, the second phase of the eruption began and it was characterized by substantial flow of lava down the sloping Mount Vesuvius and this caused additional deaths and destruction. In fact, the eruption of Mount Vesuvius spewed 1.5 million tons of lava per second into Pompeii and surrounding towns. In a short period of time, two thousand people were killed, the small towns of Herculaneum, Oplonti and Stabiae were destroyed, and Pompeii was changed forever.
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The Atlantic Basin has been relatively quiet in recent days in terms of tropical activity and it continues to look like this will be a less active tropical season compared to 2017. One of the main factors that led us to an outlook for a less active tropical season back in the springtime was the large patch of colder-than-normal water at that time in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This continues to exist and is quite likely an inhibiting factor for the formation or intensification of tropical activity in the tropical Atlantic and there are a couple other factors as well that are likely deterring activity. First, Saharan Desert (dry) air has persistently flowed westward from western Africa and into the tropical Atlantic and there are signs that this general pattern will continue into at least the near future. In addition, wind shear has been quite prominent across the tropical Atlantic in recent days and there are reasons to believe that this will continue to impede tropical activity in coming weeks. Don’t let your guard down; however, as all it takes is a direct hit by one storm to make it a memorable tropical season.
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In recent days, Arctic sea ice volume has been running at levels above the mean of the base period from 2004-2013 and it is above the levels seen during each of the past three years. Arctic sea ice extent has been relatively stable during the past decade or so albeit consistently at below-normal levels. This recent uptick in Arctic sea ice volume relative to prior years and the relative stability over the past decade or so in sea ice extent is related to long-term temperature trends in the Arctic region. Specifically, despite the fact that Arctic temperatures have often run at above-normal levels in the cold season during recent years, they have usually been running at nearly normal levels during the all-important summer melting season. Above-normal temperatures during the cold season in the Arctic are usually well below freezing which minimizes the overall impact on the melting of sea ice. The summer season is when temperatures are typically slightly above the freezing mark and any sustained warmer-than-normal conditions during those particular months would likely have an important impact on sea ice; however, this scenario has not been happening for many years.
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One of the most important stories in recent weeks in the world of weather and climate has been the abnormally cold waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. This colder-than-normal patch of water just south of Greenland has been sustained for several weeks now and it is likely playing a role in Greenland’s extensive and abnormally high snow/ice pack for this time of year. In addition, this cold water just south of Greenland may be playing a role in overall colder-than-normal air temperatures in the Arctic region during their all-important summer melting season and the latest estimates of Arctic sea ice extent which compare favorably to recent years.
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