The week will end on a cold note as a secondary surge of cold air arrives with morning snow showers and then weak low pressure should pass by just to our south on Saturday bringing us the chance for a rain and/or snow shower. High pressure builds back into the region on Sunday and it should be a precipitation-free day. Low pressure in the middle of the country early next week will trek towards the Ohio Valley and it ultimately is likely to reform near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and become a slow-moving coastal storm. As a result, there is the threat for significant rain, ice and/or snow in the extended period from late Monday night into perhaps early Thursday.
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March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era when computer forecast models were just in their infancy and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
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A deep upper-level trough continues to sit and spin over the Northeast US and another wave of energy will rotate through today causing more instability in our area. As a result, the breeze will remain quite noticeable and there can be a few PM rain and/or snow showers. It’ll turn a bit colder in the overnight hours and temperatures on Friday are likely to hold in the lower 40's for afternoon highs. After a relatively quiet weekend, another storm will have to be monitored as it crosses the country. As we begin the new week, low pressure will be headed towards the Ohio Valley from the middle of the country. It is likely to spin off a secondary low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline which will likely become a slow-mover and this could produce rain, ice and/or snow in our region from late Monday night into Wednesday.
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If you had a chance to bet on the over/under for the number of nor’easters this month, I hope you took the over. There have been three nor’easters in the past ten days or so and there is the threat for another one around Tuesday of next week. In fact, as we approach the middle of March, it is hard to find any sign of sustained spring-like weather for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and the colder-than-normal temperature pattern is looking like it will go right into early April. In addition, instability in the upper-atmosphere will bring much of the region snow showers this afternoon with isolated snow squalls and perhaps a repeat tomorrow afternoon.
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A deep upper-level trough is now sitting over the Northeast US and short-waves of energy will rotate through it over the next couple of days. One such wave in the upper atmosphere will push through the area later today and it will generate strong winds around here and possible afternoon snow showers which can mix with rain at times. Another wave of energy will pass through later tomorrow and it could generate a rain shower or two in the region.
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Strong low pressure is moving northeastward this morning from a position well off the New Jersey coastline to a position late today east of New England. Any lingering clouds around here this morning should give to increasing amounts of sunshine and the storm’s biggest impact today will be across eastern Massachusetts and Maine where blizzard conditions could take place. On the backside of the storm, we’ll stay quite blustery and cold into tomorrow and as upper-level trough intensifies, we’ll have to watch for the possibility of snow shower activity tomorrow afternoon.
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Low pressure is currently developing off the Carolina coastline and it will intensify quite rapidly over the next 24 hours or so as it heads northeastward to a position well off the New Jersey coastline by early tomorrow and then east of New England by tomorrow night. Given the fact that this system will not hug the coast like some recent storms, its impact will be comparatively reduced in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. However, snow is still likely to break out late today or early tonight in the Philly-to-NYC corridor and it could even extend to areas to the east and northeast of the District of Columbia (e.g., Baltimore, Anne Arundel County and the Delmarva Peninsula).
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Strong low pressure will head towards the Carolina coastline this morning and then take a turn to the northeast and intensify along the way as it heads to a position well off the NJ coastline by early Tuesday and then off of eastern New England by late Tuesday. As with prior coastal storms, the greatest intensification of this storm will take place to our northeast sparing the DC metro region of anything significant in terms of precipitation. A mix of rain and snow showers is possible today and then as the storm intensifies to our northeast tonight, snow showers will threaten; especially, in areas to the east of I-95 where small accumulations are possible (e.g., Anne Arundel County).
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Our recent cold and stormy March weather pattern continues this week with yet another ocean storm to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Strong low pressure will head towards the Carolina coastline on Monday morning and then take a turn to the northeast and intensify along the way as it heads to a position off the NJ coastline by early Tuesday and then off of eastern New England by late Tuesday. It looks like the storm will come close enough to the Mid-Atlantic coastline to generate some snow for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but exactly how close it comes to the coast is still somewhat of an open question and the precise track will help determine if this is a nuisance snow or something more significant. As with the prior coastal storms, the impact looks greater as one moves northeast along the coastline so that, for example, DC likely gets impacted less than NYC, and it could become an all-out blizzard for eastern New England.
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Strong low pressure will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Monday and it could result in accumulating snowfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In addition to the persistent high-latitude blocking to our north, two key players in the upcoming storm threat will be separate waves of energy in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. These waves will ultimately consolidate into one deep upper-level trough and if the phasing takes place quick enough then a strong storm would indeed impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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