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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

7:00 AM | *Occasional showers today and a possible strong thunderstorm...shower threat returns this weekend and continues into next week*

Paul Dorian

A slow-moving cool front will bring us occasional showers today and there can be a strong thunderstorm mixed in as well. A cooler-than-normal air mass will push into the region early this weekend resulting in comfortable temperatures for the weekend and the first half of next week. The atmosphere will become increasingly unsettled, however, with the combination of cool air aloft and a slow-moving upper-level trough moving in overhead. Showers cannot be ruled out later Saturday and there is a likelihood for showers on Sunday, Monday and perhaps Tuesday as well.

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7:00 AM | *Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase for late today and tonight as front approaches the region*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure over the Great Lakes region will intensify today and a trailing cold front will approach our area from the northwest. The approach of the front will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms around here by day's end and it'll keep it unsettled tonight and on Thursday as it drags very slowly through the region. A cooler-than-normal air mass will push into the region early this weekend resulting in more comfortable weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday and the cooler-than-normal weather will stick around into the early part of next week. With cooler air aloft, the weekend and early part of next week will become somewhat unsettled and showers will likely be a threat on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

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7:00 AM | *Much warmer air pushes into the region as high pressure shifts off the coast*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will push off the coast today and this will allow for much warmer air to move into the Mid-Atlantic region from the southern states. A frontal system will approach the area late Wednesday and increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms and then this same front will stall out in the area and weaken later in the week. Another frontal system will follow early this weekend and it can bring us a chance of showers and thunderstorms on either weekend day.

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12:00 PM (Monday) | *Recap of the “derecho” that blasted through Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Wednesday, June 3rd...a look back at June 2012*

Paul Dorian

A “derecho” is defined as a widespread, long-lived wind storm associated with bands of quickly moving showers and thunderstorms. Although a “derecho” can produce destruction similar to that of a tornado, the damage typically occurs in one direction along a relatively straight path. By definition, if the extent of wind damage is for more than 250 miles, includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph along its path, and also includes several, well-separated wind gusts of 75 mph or greater, then the event may be classified as a “derecho”. One such event took place last Wednesday, June 3rd, across much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey - and some are still feeling the impact.

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7:00 AM | *A very nice start to the week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will control the weather today in the Mid-Atlantic region and provide us with plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions, but it’ll turn warmer on Tuesday after it shifts off the east coast. A cold front will then approach from our northwest on Wednesday night – perhaps accompanied by showers and thunderstorms – and then it may stall out and slowly weaken around here later in the week. Another cold front is likely to arrive from the northwest early in the weekend. Elsewhere, the remains of Tropical Storm Cristobal will push northward over the next few days producing heavy rainfall all along the Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian border.

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11:00 AM (Fri.) | **Continued unsettled conditions with additional very heavy rainfall and strong storms…nicer weather Sun/Mon…Cristobal to turn north and approach the north-central Gulf on Sunday**

Paul Dorian

There are two important weather stories here at the end of the work week with continued very unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and also tropical depression Cristobal which remains just inland over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico at mid-day. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday was accompanied by severe thunderstorm activity and a stalled out frontal boundary zone will remain the focus area for showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours or so. Any rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region can be heavy at times with the potential of localized flash flooding and any thunderstorm that forms can be strong-to-severe with gusty winds.

Meanwhile, tropical depression is parked inland over Mexico, but it is likely to move back out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third named tropical system of this young tropical season – will close in on the north-central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas should remained focused on this threat.

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7:00 AM | ***Very unsettled pattern continues with the threat for more heavy rainfall and strong storms...Cristobal to turn north this weekend and heads towards the north-central Gulf coast***

Paul Dorian

The very unsettled weather pattern continues today, tonight and tomorrow as a stalled out frontal system remains the focus area for showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Any rain that falls over the next 24-36 hours is likely to be heavy at times with the potential of localized flash flooding and any storm that forms can be strong with gusty winds. A strong cold front will finally push completely through the area on Saturday night and this will set the stage for much nicer weather on Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, tropical depression Cristobal remains parked just inland over Mexico this morning, but it should head out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by tonight and then move generally in a northward direction over the next couple of days. This kind of a track would bring Cristobal in the vicinity of southern Louisiana by late in the weekend likely as a strong tropical storm, but there is the chance that it reaches minimal hurricane status - all should closely monitor the situation from the Panhandle of Florida-to-Texas.

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9:30 AM (Wed.) | ***Sudden burst of summer to be accompanied by strong-to-severe storms…potential of heavy rain bands on Thursday…Tropical Storm Cristobal could impact the central Gulf coast***

Paul Dorian

There are two important weather stories here at mid-week with a sudden surge of summer-like conditions into the Mid-Atlantic region and the development of a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region will be accompanied by some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in some spots later today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The highest probability of the severe storm activity will be to the north of the PA/MD border with one shot around mid-day and then another shot from later this afternoon into tonight. This front stalls nearby on Thursday and this could result in some heavy rain bands tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal has intensified in the overnight hours, but it may very well weaken over the next couple of days as it moves inland over Mexico. However, by the end of the week, TS Cristobal is likely to move back out over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third tropical storm of this young tropical season – will close in on the central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes should remained focused on this threat from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas.

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7:00 AM | **A blast of summer heat and humidity today...chance for a strong storm later today/tonight...active tropical scene**

Paul Dorian

A warm front has lifted north of the region and the result today will be a blast of summer-like temperatures and humidity. In fact, temperatures this afternoon should climb to the lower or middle 90’s in many spots to go along with the noticeable humidity and there can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight and on Thursday and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe and any rainfall that occurs can be heavy at times. A frontal system will stall nearby on Thursday and keep it unsettled here through the remainder of the work week with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Another cool front will arrive this weekend and it should become more comfortable around here on Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal should head northward over the next few days towards the central/western Gulf coast.

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7:00 AM | *Hottest weather yet arrives on Wednesday following passage of warm front...active tropical scene*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will move offshore today and a warm front will lift northward bringing us a chance of an afternoon shower or two. Behind the warm front, temperatures will soar into the 90’s on Wednesday – the hottest weather so far this season - and there can be a shower or thunderstorm in the area. Any storm that forms on later tomorrow or tomorrow night can be on the strong-to-severe side. A cold front will arrive later in the week and it’ll tend to stall out in the region keeping us on the unsettled side into the weekend. A stronger cold front should push through the region by the middle of the weekend paving the way for a nicer day on Sunday. Elsewhere, all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal should head northward over the next few days towards the central/western Gulf coast.

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