A potpourri of topics today ranging from another day with a strong thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region to an active Atlantic Basin tropical scene to an update on Comet NEOWISE which is making its closest approach to Earth later tonight. First, on the weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region, yet another wave of energy aloft will combine with considerable amounts of moisture in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere to bring another shot at strong storms later today and tonight. Second, on the tropics, an impressive tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely headed to the east coast of Texas by the early part of the weekend and it will result in heavy rainfall in that part of the southern US. A second tropical system, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, has run into a bit of dry air which has halted its intensification in recent hours as it continues to push towards the Caribbean Sea. A third tropical wave has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it may become an important player to monitor next week. Finally, Comet NEOWISE makes its closest approach to the Earth later tonight and it won’t be back around these parts for about 6800 years.
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A cool frontal system will approach the region later today and will combine with upper-level energy to produce more showers for the Mid-Atlantic region and possible strong thunderstorms. Any shower or storm today and tonight can result in additional heavy rainfall. The front stalls along the I-95 corridor region on Friday and there will still be the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Slightly drier air will arrive for the weekend and the rain chances on both Saturday and Sunday will be quite limited. As high pressure pushes off the east coast early next week into the familiar “Bermuda-high” position, the heat and humidity is likely to build up again in the Mid-Atlantic region with the development of low-level southwesterly winds on the backside of the high.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with an impressive system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and also a newly named tropical storm over the central tropical Atlantic. The Gulf system has a chance to intensify into a named tropical storm over the next couple of days as it heads towards the northwestern part of the Gulf and Tropical Storm Gonzalo could very well climb to hurricane status over the next couple of days in the central Atlantic.
Elsewhere, a wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere is combining with a stalled out frontal boundary zone and plenty of moisture to spark some strong thunderstorm activity at mid-day in the western part of the Mid-Atlantic region and across the Ohio Valley. Some of these thunderstorm cells will make it into the I-95 corridor at day’s end and likely reach strong-to-severe levels with the potential of damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
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The combination of hot and humid conditions, energy in the upper atmosphere, and a stalled out frontal boundary zone will increase chances later today for showers and thunderstorms and that threat will continue tonight as well. Given the unstable atmospheric conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region, any storm that does form can reach strong-to-severe levels with gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall. Another frontal system will approach the region on Thursday and this too will bring about a chance for showers and thunderstorms and some of these storms can be strong-to-severe as well. Following that next frontal system, some relief of the heat and humidity will arrive on Friday and it’ll remain rather seasonal on Saturday as well. Heat and humidity will build back into the region early next week as high pressure pushes off the eastern seaboard and a west-to-southwest flow of warmer and more humid air develops around here.
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A wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere is combining with a stalled out frontal boundary zone and plenty of moisture to spark some strong thunderstorm activity in the western part of the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these cells will make it into the I-95 corridor at day’s end. An even stronger wave of energy aloft will likely generate thunderstorms later tomorrow for the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these can reach severe levels with heavy rainfall, hail and potential damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become more active with two systems to monitor over the next few days and additional waves are drifting westward over Africa assuring an active last stretch of the month of July.
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A weak frontal system has stalled out across Virginia and it could become the focus area for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity and again on Wednesday. A stronger front will approach the area on Thursday and this will also result in the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any storm that forms over the next few days can be on the strong-to-severe side given all the available moisture in the atmosphere and the high levels of potential energy. Following the passage of the late week frontal system, we'll experience a bit of relief on Friday and Saturday, but it is likely to get hot again by the early part of next week.
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High pressure at all levels of the atmosphere will result in another day with excessive heat in the Mid-Atlantic region, but relief does come at the end of the week. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms later today, tonight and on Tuesday as a weak front limps through the area. An enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms is likely for later Wednesday into Thursday as a stronger frontal system approaches the region. This front should have enough push behind it to bring some relief here from the excessive heat for Friday and Saturday following its late week passage.
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We are approaching the climatologically warmest time of the year for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes regions of the country and it looks the weather pattern will live up to those long-term averages. The hottest weather of the season so far will begin this weekend and continue through the middle of next week. The hottest days during this stretch for the I-95 corridor will likely turn out to be Sunday and Monday when temperatures should climb to the mid and upper 90’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC-Boston corridor.
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A frontal system that limped through the area last night will now stall along the east coast and this will result in a continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms through tonight. In addition, high pressure over the Northeast US in recent days has pushed off the east coast and this will open the door for hot and humid air to move into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, the hottest stretch of weather so far this season is coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC-to-Boston corridor with highs well up in the 90’s by later in the weekend and also during the early part of next week. It’ll be humid as well during the hot stretch with the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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High pressure over the Northeast US will stay in control today, but a warm frontal system will arrive tonight increasing the chance for scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. That same front will stall out nearby on Friday and the result will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and tomorrow night. The overall pattern will turn hotter this weekend as a “Bermuda-high” sets up over the western Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures could top out well up in the 90’s later this weekend and early next week with the most oppressive days likely being Sunday and Monday. It’ll be humid as well during this coming hot stretch with the daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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