The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start now with nine named storms - the newest one being “Isaias”. Tropical Storm “Isaias” has been pounding away at Puerto Rico since last night with torrential rainfall and is now interacting with the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic). This particular island has mountainous terrain with peaks of over 10,000 feet and it is likely to limit the intensification of “Isaias” – at least in the short-term. In addition, an interaction with this northern Caribbean island frequently causes a “re-positioning” of the low-level circulation center of a given tropical cyclone so we’ll look for that to take place over the next 12-24 hours. After that, Tropical Storm “Isasis” is likely to significantly impact the Bahama Islands - perhaps as a hurricane - and likely take a track over or just off the east coast of Florida with substantial rainfall and strong winds on the table. There is a chance that the moisture field of the tropical storm then rides up along the southeast US coastline to the Carolinas - and potentially as far north as the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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A stalled-out frontal system will lift north today and raise chances for isolated PM showers and thunderstorms. It’ll stay unsettled again on Friday with the front remaining in close proximity and this same front will meander in the Mid-Atlantic region all weekend. Temperatures will edge downward on Friday with highs confined to the 80's and the 80's should rule right into the early part of next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaias will likely have a significant impact on the Bahamas and Florida this weekend and its moisture field could ride up along the east coast early next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another wave that has reached the Caribbean Sea is quite likely to become the ninth (“Isaias”). This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and had somewhat limited intensification possibilities over the past few days as it battled with dry air in the central Atlantic that originated over the Sahara Desert region of northern Africa. As such, the tropical wave appeared rather elongated and disorganized yesterday morning, but has since “escaped” the dry air mass and is now becoming better organized. There is a good chance that this system will reach tropical storm status in the next 24 hours and continue on a west-to-northwest track which will result in an impact on the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba as well as the Bahamas.
After that, the tropical system may very well impact Florida by later Saturday, but its intensification prospects beforehand may be somewhat limited due to its possible interaction with these islands and a possible increase in southwesterly wind shear. By early next week, the tropical system could begin to take a more northerly track as it interacts with an unusually strong upper-level trough that will be “digging” into the south-central US and slowing down in its eastward progression. As a result, its moisture field could very well ride northward along the east coast in the early part of next week - potentially resulting in a significant rain event all the way from Florida to the Northeast US.
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A cool frontal system passed through the region last night and the result should be a rain-free day; however, it stays rather hot with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90’s. That same front stalls out just south of here today and low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary zone on Thursday into Friday leading to more unsettled weather conditions. In addition, it should turn cooler on Friday with highs likely confined to the middle 80’s as we close out the work week. Elsewhere, a tropical system continues on a track that should take it towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then perhaps to the southern part of Florida by the latter part of the weekend. This system could ultimately have an impact on the rest of the eastern US during the early part of next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave closing in on the Lesser Antilles. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next couple of days as it continues on a general west-to-northwest track. There is a high probability that this system intensifies enough to become classified as a tropical storm and, if so, it would be named “Isaias” – the ninth named storm of the still relatively young 2020 tropical season and the earliest date for the “I” storm. There is a good chance that this system continues on a track that’ll bring it to near Puerto Rico later this week and then to the southern Bahama Islands at weeks end. After that, there is a growing chance that the likely-to-be-named “Isaias” will threaten Florida and the Southeast US by the latter part of the upcoming weekend.
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The week started off on a hot note with no rain-fall on Monday, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase later today as a cool frontal system approaches the region. Any thunderstorm late today or early tonight associated with the frontal system can be on the strong side. The front will tend to push very slowly southward through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. As a result, it'll stay somewhat unsettled and our temperatures will trend slightly downward by week's end with highs on Friday likely confined to the middle 80’s.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave over the central Atlantic. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next few days as it takes a general W-NW track. There is a good chance that this system moves first towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then to near the Bahamas over the next several days. Whether or not this tropical system ultimately impacts the Southeast US may be largely dependent on an unusually strong upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central states by the weekend.
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It’ll turn quite hot today to start the new work week in the Mid-Atlantic region with afternoon high temperatures well up in the 90’s. After a mild and muggy night, temperatures will rebound into the 90’s again on Tuesday and a frontal system will approach the area. This front could set off some strong thunderstorm activity from late tomorrow into tomorrow night. High pressure will slowly build over the Great Lakes later in the week and this should result in some relief around here by week’s end with highs likely holding in the 80’s.
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The Atlantic Basin now features three tropical systems to closely monitor in this very active early part of the 2020 tropical season. Tropical Storm Hanna is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico and is on a path to make landfall on Saturday in southeastern Texas - quite likely as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Gonzalo has been relatively steady recently in terms of its intensity, but there are signs that it should weaken over the next couple of days as it moves towards the Caribbean Sea. A third and quite large tropical wave has just emerged from the west coast of Africa and it has great potential for intensification over the next several days. This third system is likely to head to a position quite close to where Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently resides, and it very well could have an impact on the US in 10-15 days.
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A cool frontal system will stall out for awhile today along the I-95 corridor and this can lead to the formation of a few more showers and thunderstorms. The front will slip to the southeast by later tonight and this will allow for drier air to move into the Mid-Atlantic region resulting in more comfortable conditions to start the weekend. It will, however, get quite warm on Saturday afternoon with highs near 90 degrees and then after high pressure pushes off the east coast later in the weekend, temperatures will likely climb into the 90’s for highs on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active with Tropical Storm Hannah over the western Gulf of Mexico closing in on the Texas east coast and Tropical Storm Gonzalo churning to the west over the central Atlantic. This second system will likely end up pushing into the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
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