The next couple of days will be very unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region with multiple systems to deal with as well as the tropical moisture associated with the remains of Hurricane Laura. There is the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from later today through tomorrow evening and added tropical moisture will enhance the chance for heavy rain at times over the next 36 hours or so. Following all of this activity, a spectacular air mass for this time of year will ride in on Sunday on strong NW winds and those very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels will last into the first part of next week. It'll become quite unsettled again as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms each day.
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Hurricane Laura came ashore last night near the town of Cameron in southwestern Louisiana initially estimated as a category 4 storm. It has pushed northward today into upstate Louisiana and has weakened along the way to a category 1 hurricane; however, it is still producing heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts and will continue to do so into the state of Arkansas and parts of the Tennessee Valley. By the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will interact with an incoming frontal system and upper-level trough to produce some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region along with the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. All of this activity will clear the east coast by Sunday and a spectacular air mass for late August will push into the Great Lakes, Northeast US and the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Hurricane Laura came ashore last night in southwestern Louisiana as a category 4 storm and its remains will have an impact on the weather here on Saturday. A warm frontal system lifted northward through the region in the overnight hours and temperatures today will spike to near the 95 degree mark. The sudden surge of heat will also come with a threat of late day or nighttime showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can reach severe levels. Another frontal system will advance this way on Saturday and will combine with the remnants of Hurricane Laura as they push east from the Tennessee Valley region. As a result, rain is likely here on Saturday, some of it can be heavy at times, and there can be some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. All of this activity will push off the coast by Sunday and as high pressure returns so will the sunshine and the new air mass will be very comfortable for this time of year with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels.
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Hurricane Laura has reached “major” hurricane status as a category 3 storm and it should intensify into a category 4 system this afternoon as it heads on a collision course with the Texas/Louisiana border region and expected landfall later tonight. Hurricane Laura intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours in a favorable environment of low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures and continues to intensify today - now just a bit under the required levels for a category 4 classification. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall later tonight, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states on Thursday producing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and damaging wind gusts. By the early part of the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will turn to the east and get intertwined with a frontal system and an incoming vigorous upper-level trough to potentially produce some heavy rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Once off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the remnants of Hurricane Laura could actually re-intensify as it moves out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic.
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A cold front passed through the region late yesterday and the result today will generally be for some quieter weather in the region although a shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out. This same front will turn around and push northward as a warm front later on Thursday and our temperatures are likely to spike into the middle 90’s for afternoon highs. After that, we’ll monitor the remains of Hurricane Laura as they could push northward into the south-central US later in the week and then eastward this weekend into the Mid-Atlantic region – potentially resulting in some heavy rainfall around here on Saturday and possible severe weather.
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A cold front is pushing towards the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it is going to generate thunderstorms in the region late today and early tonight and some of the storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. A line of thunderstorms is now showing up on radar across northwestern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and these will likely strengthen and expand in coverage this afternoon as they move into increasingly unstable air. The most likely timetable for thunderstorm activity in the I-95 corridor is 5-9 PM.
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Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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A cold front will approach the region later today and there are likely to be scattered PM showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. After a generally quiet day on Wednesday, this same front will lift back to the north as a warm front by early Thursday and our temperatures are likely to spike into the middle 90’s for afternoon highs. After that, we’ll monitor the remains of Tropical Storm Laura as they could push northward into the south-central US later in the week and then could turn eastward and impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday – potentially bringing some heavy rainfall here and strong thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Laura could reach "major" hurricane status before making landfall late Wednesday night possibly near the TX/LA border.
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While the main focus of attention has been on tropical activity in recent days, there has been some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region and that threat will continue from this afternoon into mid-week. A surface trough of low pressure situated in the I-95 corridor is helping to fuel the formation of numerous showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these will make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later in the day and early tonight. A cold frontal system will then approach the I-95 corridor later Tuesday and it too can generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. As that same frontal system stalls out just to the south of here on Wednesday, there still can be some strong thunderstorm activity to monitor at mid-week.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened as it nears the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in its vicinity. The low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Marco has been displaced from the main area of convection (thunderstorms) and it will tend to dissipate over the next few days.
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