“Elsa” is a strong tropical storm that is on the verge of reaching hurricane status as it pushes slowly northward just off Florida’s southwest coastline. It is having significant impact in the state of Florida and is likely to have an impact later in the week all the way up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. In the short-term, a very unstable atmosphere could bring severe thunderstorms to the northern Mid-Atlantic later today and tonight in this hot and humid air mass.
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It’ll turn hot and humid for the next couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late today, tonight and again on Wednesday. Given the expected high and humidity, any thunderstorm that forms during the next 48 hours can be on the strong side with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. “Elsa” is a strong tropical storm this morning near the Florida Keys and has slowed down from its rapid movement during the weekend. This system will ride up to the north today just off the west coast of Florida and then cross northern Florida on Wednesday. After that, the remains of “Elsa” will likely turn to the northeast and move up along the eastern seaboard – perhaps to a position by late Thursday over the Delmarva Peninsula or southern New Jersey. Any impact here from “Elsa” would come from later Thursday into Thursday night with the potential of an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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A cold frontal system has stalled out near the east coast and this will keep it unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight with additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. An upper-level low will move directly overhead by tomorrow and this will continue to result in unsettled conditions with threat of showers as we begin the holiday weekend. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled for Sunday, July 4th, but the weather should improve some by then and then the off-day on Monday, July 5th, is likely to feature the most sunshine of the 3-day weekend and also the warmest conditions with highs at least well up in the 80’s. Elsewhere, “Elsa” has reached hurricane status this morning and threatens Hispaniola (especially on the Haiti side), Jamaica and Cuba later this weekend and then the SE US/Gulf of Mexico early next week…stay tuned.
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It’s never easy to break the back of a heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic region and this one will be no different with the formation of strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the transition and there will be torrential rainfall included in the mix. The threat for storms and heavy rainfall will continue into Friday as a slow-moving cold front works its way through the region. It’ll turn noticeably cooler on Friday and Saturday and the weather will stay unsettled as we begin the holiday weekend, but improvement will set in for Sunday and Monday.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave that exited off of the west coast of Africa last week has strengthened into Tropical Storm “Elsa” and it will enter the Caribbean Sea later tomorrow. This system is likely to become an important player for the Caribbean islands of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic), Jamaica and Cuba later in the weekend and could threaten southern Florida early next week.
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A cold frontal system will edge closer to our region later today and low pressure will form along its slow-moving boundary zone. As a result, the threat for showers and thunderstorms is quite high right through tonight and any rain that falls can be heavy at times with localized flooding a threat. The front will stick close enough to the region on Friday to continue the threat of showers and thunderstorms and temperatures will be noticeably cooler as we end the work week. An upper-level low will then move directly overhead of the Mid-Atlantic region at the beginning the holiday weekend resulting in cool conditions for early July and a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. The weather should show some improvement on Sunday and then Monday will likely turn out to be the warmest day of the long holiday weekend with the most sunshine. Elsewhere, an impressive tropical system will enter the Caribbean Sea early this weekend and will have to be closely monitored in coming days.
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There was intense heat across the Pacific Northwest earlier in the week and also quite a hot spell in the Mid-Atlantic region with strong upper-level ridging the main culprit in both parts of the nation. The heat in the Mid-Atlantic will transition to much cooler conditions by the time we get to the end of the work week and early part of the holiday weekend. This change will come about with numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall with localized flooding a real threat. The weekend will start off quite a bit cooler-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic and also very unsettled with deep upper-level low pressure moving directly overhead, but improvement and warming will come later in the weekend.
Elsewhere, an impressive tropical wave exited off of the west coast of Africa last week and it is now churning over the central Atlantic. We certainly could be dealing with a “tropical storm” nearing the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week and this system will have to be closely monitored heading into the first full week of July.
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It’ll be another very hot and humid day in the Mid-Atlantic region with high pressure still in control as it sits just off the eastern seaboard. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase by tonight and to a high level on Thursday and Friday as a slow-moving frontal system works its way into the area. In fact, there is a good chance that the next few days will include some very heavy rainfall as the front stalls out in the region and temperatures will trend downward. The holiday weekend is looking cooler-than-normal for early July and unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region with rain still a threat as it gets underway. Much like the weather during the Memorial Day weekend, the weather will tend to improve as we head towards the Monday holiday (July 5th).
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The weather for Memorial Day weekend was quite cool in the Mid-Atlantic region with some rainfall as well and the best weather day turned out to be the Monday holiday. Unfortunately, there are some similarities between that holiday weekend and what could happen this 4th of July weekend. The high heat and humidity of today and Wednesday will transition to cooler conditions for the end of the week and for the upcoming holiday weekend and the conversion is likely to include some heavy rainfall and possible strong storms. In addition to the cooler-than-normal weather this weekend, it’ll remain unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region and as with the Memorial Day weekend, the best weather day may turn out to be the Monday holiday.
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The weather for the next two days in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue to be controlled by strong high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean - in the familiar “Bermuda-high” position. As a result, the low-level flow of air will remain from a southwesterly direction on the backside of the high and this system will continue to pump hot and humid air into the region. Temperatures both today and Wednesday will soar well up into the 90's for afternoon highs to go along with high humidity values. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase for the mid and late week time periods as a frontal system slowly inches its way towards the area. In fact, there is a good chance that the second half of the week will feature downpours as the front stalls out in the region and temperatures will trend downward. The holiday weekend is looking cooler-than-normal and quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region with rain still a threat as it gets underway.
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The weather for the next few days in the Northeast US will be controlled by strong high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean - in the familiar “Bermuda-high” position. As a result, the low-level flow of air will be southwesterly on the backside of the high and this will bring hot and humid air into the Mid-Atlantic region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase by mid-week and we’ll have to watch the possibility of some heavy rainfall as we transfer to cooler conditions for the late week and weekend.
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