A broad upper-level trough remains in place overhead and is producing enough instability for numerous showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro region. Some of the rain will be heavy at times this morning and mid-day...watch out for localized flooding conditions. Meanwhile, the storm track of Tropical Storm Henri will become increasingly influenced this weekend by building high pressure over southeastern Canada and this system is likely to turn to the north and intensify into a hurricane – potentially resulting in a direct impact on Long Island or New England by late Sunday.
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Tropical Storm Henri remains a threat to Long Island and New England where it could make a direct impact as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane late in the upcoming weekend. This system will become influenced by expanding high pressure over southeastern Canada and a developing upper-level trough over the Appalachian Mountains causing it to make a sharp right turn in the near-term. In addition, more favorable environmental conditions will allow for intensification of Henri this weekend from the current tropical storm status to hurricane levels and it could very well be closing in on Long Island and southern New England as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by late in the day on Sunday. All residents from the northern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England should closely monitor the movement of Tropical Storm Henri.
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The remnants of Tropical Storm “Fred” have moved to the north of here into upstate New York and the chance for rain here today will diminish; but not disappear completely. The atmosphere will remain unstable enough for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms later today as well as tonight and on Friday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Henri” continues to churn slowly out over the western Atlantic Ocean and is on the doorstep of attaining hurricane status (max sustained winds now at 70 mph). The unfolding upper air pattern may allow for movement of Henri towards New England later this weekend and all residents along the Northeast US coastline should monitor this system in coming days.
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The remnants of Tropical Storm “Fred” continue to push to the northeast today and are now centered over the southwestern part of Pennsylvania. Its tropical moisture field has spread throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and is enhancing the chance for downpours later today and tonight and also the chance for severe thunderstorm activity which may include isolated tornadoes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm “Henri” continues to spin out over the Atlantic Ocean and is likely to intensify into hurricane status in the near-term. There are some “red flags” in the developing weather pattern that suggest “Henri” should be very closely monitored in coming days; especially, for coastal residents of the Northeast US.
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Tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Fred has pushed northward into the Mid-Atlantic region and will enhance the chance of showers and thunderstorms around here. The heaviest rainfall today and tonight will take place to the north and west of the District where enough rain can fall to result in localized flash flooding conditions. The remnants of Fred push to our north by Thursday morning and then attention shifts to Henri out over the Atlantic. This system is likely to reach hurricane in the near-term and may come "too-close-for-comfort" to the east coast late in the week or this weekend. As a result, Henri needs to be closely monitored by all residents along the east coast; especially, those up in New England.
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Tropical Storm Fred came ashore late yesterday in western Florida and the remains are now pushing north-northeastward across the northwestern part of Georgia. Despite its recent weakening, this system continues to produce some significant rainfall and strong thunderstorm activity in the Southeast US and Tennessee Valley and it will likely do so tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Grace is moving westward through the Caribbean Sea and is likely to reach the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by Thursday – probably as a hurricane. Finally, Tropical Storm Henri has formed over the Atlantic and is currently meandering not too far from the island of Bermuda. This system is quite worrisome in that it may come awfully close to the US east coast before hopefully turning away…needs to be very closely monitored.
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Tropical Storm “Fred” came ashore last evening in the western part of Florida and has since weakened into a tropical depression. This system will, however, continue to produce significant rainfall as it pushes northward along the Appalachian Mountains during the next 24-48 hours. The biggest impact in the Mid-Atlantic region will come later tomorrow into Thursday when significant rain can fall in some spots; especially, on the western side of Route I-95. In addition to the threat of some significant rain, there is the chance that thunderstorms at mid-week reach strong-to-severe levels with isolated tornadoes on the table in the Mid-Atlantic region. By later Thursday, the remnants of "Fred" will have passed by to the north, but the weather will remain somewhat unsettled going into the weekend. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm "Grace" is likely headed west towards the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and Tropical Storm "Henri" will meander over the Atlantic Ocean in coming days not too far from the island of Bermuda.
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Tropical Storm “Fred” is strengthening as it closes in on the Panhandle region of Florida and it could even reach hurricane status before making landfall this evening. “Fred” will weaken quickly after landfall in terms of its wind field; however, its tropical moisture field will push northward over the few days resulting in significant rainfall from the Gulf coast to Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. “Grace” has weakened (temporarily) to tropical depression status and is likely to take a track much farther to the south of “Fred” as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure over the western Atlantic. A third system over the Atlantic will tend to meander not too far from Bermuda and it could very well become Tropical Storm “Henri” in the near-term.
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The week ahead looks to be very unsettled with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain will be heavy at times. In fact, the rain chances this week will be enhanced by the addition of tropical moisture that will feed in from the southern states and localized flash flooding could become a widespread concern in the Mid-Atlantic regio. It will also be much cooler this week compared to last with high temperatures confined to the 80's and generally below-normal for the middle of August. The Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active with "Fred" and "Grace" on the playing field. "Fred" has regained status as a tropical storm and should reach the western part of Florida's Panhandle by late tonight and then its moisture field will push northward into the Tennessee Valley and then the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week. Meanwhile, "Grace" will take a more southerly path compared to "Fred" and likely end up in the southern/western part of the Gulf of Mexico.
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The Mid-Atlantic region remains quite hot and humid today and there is a chance for scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from later in the day through early tonight. Today will be the last day of the oppressive heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic as a cool frontal system will usher in more comfortable air for the weekend; especially, by the time Sunday rolls around when afternoon temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 80’s and humidity will be much more bearable.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin remains quite active with two systems to monitor. The first system that was at one time classified as Tropical Storm “Fred” is now a “depression”, but it is likely to regain storm status again in the near future. This system will push towards the Florida Keys by early tomorrow then likely to a position over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, “Fred” will head towards the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle and it could intensify further before making a landfall sometime late Monday. A second system that is now over the central Atlantic is very likely to become Tropical Storm “Grace” and it is likely to take a more southerly track to its predecessor “Fred” and possibly end up in the southern/western Gulf of Mexico.
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