*A high impact weather event today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region with heavy rainfall, the potential for widespread flooding, and a tornado threat as well*. The remnants of Ida will get “re-invigorated” today as this tropical depression encounters a stalled-out frontal boundary zone and interacts with a strong upper-level jet streak. Flooding is a serious concern for the next 24 hours or so given the already well-saturated grounds and the prospects of several inches of rainfall. Cool air for early September will follow the storm for Thursday, Friday and Saturday confining afternoon highs to the 70’s in most spots.
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Ida has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but its impact is far from over. A heavy rain and flooding event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night and there is a severe weather threat as well to include the possibility of tornadoes. The axis of heaviest rainfall may set up just to the north and west of the I-95 corridor and the greatest chance of severe weather may be just to the south and east of there. The remnants of Ida will get “re-invigorated” later tomorrow as it encounters a stalled-out frontal boundary zone and interacts with a strong upper-level jet streak.
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A heavy rain and flooding event is likely for the region from Wednesday into early Thursday. The remnants of Ida will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and its associated rainfall shield will actually tend to become “re-invigorated” and broaden out as it encounters a stalled-out frontal boundary zone and an upper-level jet streak. A general 2-4 inch rainfall is likely in the DC metro region from tomorrow into early Thursday and isolated higher amounts of up to 6 inches are even possible; especially, on the northwest side of Route I-95. Thunderstorms can mix into the picture and - as is somewhat customary with tropical systems in the middle latitudes - isolated tornadoes will be a threat to the east of the storm track. The greatest threat for severe weather during this storm will take place to the south and east of the District. Cool air for the beginning of September will follow the departure of the tropical storm with highs in the late week and early this weekend confined to the 70’s in much of the DC metro region.
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Hurricane Ida came ashore on Sunday in southern Louisiana as a strong category 4 storm following rapid intensification in the prior 24 hour period. Substantial rain fell yesterday and last night in the Gulf coastal region and damaging wind gusts knocked out power for over a million people as of earlier today including all of New Orleans. Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm, but its impact is far from over.
A major rain event associated with the remnants of Ida is coming first to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and then to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Wednesday into early Thursday. In fact, there will be a tendency for the tropical system to be “re-invigorated” in the Mid-Atlantic region as it interacts with an upper-level jet and a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. A swath of significant rainfall amounts of up to several inches will take place during the next 72 hours all along the post-landfall track of Ida extending from the southern states to the Northeast US and flooding will be a big concern all along the path. In addition to the heavy rain threat, severe weather will be on the table including the possibility of tornadic activity on the eastern side of the storm track.
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“Major” Hurricane Ida slammed into Louisiana on Sunday as a category 4 storm and the remnants will move slowly to the north today and then to the northeast over the next couple of days. A stalling frontal system will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and then will act as a pathway for Ida’s tremendous levels of moisture to push in here at mid-week. Significant rainfall will push into the Tennessee Valley over the next 24 hours and then reach the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Wednesday to early Thursday. Rainfall amounts of up to several inches is possible in the Mid-Atlantic region and given the already well saturated grounds, flash flooding is a strong likelihood in many areas. Cooler, drier air pushes in for the late week on the heels of the mid-week tropical rainfall event with highs generally confined to the 70’s.
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Hurricane Ida is making a run at Category 5 status in the remaining few hours before landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coastline. The latest observations of Ida include a well-defined eye, max sustained winds at 150 mph after rapid intensification of this system in the past 24 hours, and a northwest movement towards the Louisiana coastline. After landfall later today, Hurricane Ida will remain quite strong as it moves inland and it will gradually turn to the north in the nighttime hours and then take a turn to the northeast by mid-week. The post-landfall track will bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US in the Wednesday/Thursday time period.
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The Atlantic Basin remains active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one just to the south of western Cuba is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Storm Ida” will undergo rapid intensification this weekend once it gets past Cuba and out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The expected rapid intensification is likely to result in a “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) of Ida before it makes landfall likely in the northern Gulf coastal region late Sunday or Sunday night. After landfall, the remnants of Ida will turn north initially and then to the northeast and tropical storm conditions could exist all the way into the Tennessee Valley. This post-landfall track would bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley early next week – the last thing they need after recent flooding rains – and perhaps to the Mid-Atlantic region around mid-week.
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A cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region later today and then inch its way through, but it’ll stall out right near here by early tomorrow. Its close proximity during the next 48 hours will likely result in numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms that form between later today and late tomorrow can be on the strong-to-severe side and any shower or storm can result in torrential rainfall...watch out for localized flooding. On the tropical scene, there is a serious threat for a powerful hurricane by later Sunday in the northern Gulf coastal region. This tropical system is likely to undergo rapid intensification and could attain “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a potential landfall late in the weekend. After landfall, the remnants of "Ida" are likely to turn to the north initially and then to the northeast and could bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region around mid-week.
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The Atlantic Basin remains quite active today with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the west-central Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Tropical Depression 9” can reach hurricane status by the early part of the weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and then perhaps close in on the western/central Gulf coast by later Sunday or Monday. There is even the chance that TD 9 undergoes rapid intensification and strengthens enough in coming days to reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher).
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High pressure will remain in control through tonight and then a cold front will arrive in the area on Friday. This front will not have much of a push behind it and is likely to stall out in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Its proximity on Saturday and Sunday should bring us a bit of relief in the temperature department and there will continue to be a threat of showers and thunderstorms. On the tropical scene, there is a growing threat for a hurricane - perhaps even "major" - Louisiana coastal region by the early part of next week.
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