A cold and active weather pattern will continue this week across the eastern US and there is continued potential for an intense ocean storm at week’s end. Many ingredients are likely to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure somewhere off the US east coast. These ingredients include the following: strong jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of very cold air to the north and west, relatively warm waters in the western Atlantic, and deepening low pressure aloft that will at some point take on a “negative” tilt in its axis orientation. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding intense ocean storm scenario.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is the potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the late Friday/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for rapid intensification of surface low pressure, but whether it pushes far enough offshore for just a minimal impact around here or comes closer to the coast with a bigger impact remains unclear at this point…stay tuned.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is growing potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the Friday night/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure including the following: jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of cold air to the north and west, and deepening low pressure aloft that takes on a “negative” tilt. At this time, it is just too early to tell if this ocean storm will track well off the coast, close in or perhaps even ends up taking a slightly inland track which is a scenario that is still on the table though not too likely. It certainly looks like it’ll be an interesting next few days as we track this growing threat.
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The passage of a cold front on Sunday night has ushered in a reinforcing cold air mass for the Mid-Atlantic region as we begin a new week. High pressure will control the weather around here today, but by Tuesday we’ll come under the influence of weak low pressure that can generate a bit of snow and/or rain in the region. Arctic high pressure takes over at mid-week and Wednesday could very well turn out to be the coldest day of the season so far. At the end of the week, a strong storm is likely to form just off the eastern seaboard. This storm can have a significant impact on the region in the Friday night/Saturday time frame depending on its ultimate track…stay tuned…it’ll be an interesting week.
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The passage of an Arctic front early yesterday paved the way for bitter cold air to push into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures today will stay well below-normal for late January. Low pressure will move offshore later tonight to the east of the Carolinas and its precipitation shield should also remain to our south and east. The overall weather pattern, however, remains quite cold and active and there may be another low pressure system to deal with by the middle of next week and perhaps even another threat by the subsequent weekend.
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Rain will change to snow later this morning from northwest to the southeast with the arrival of an Arctic air mass and accumulations are likely to fall into the coating to an inch or two inch range – watch out for slick spots on the roads later today as temperatures slowly fall. In fact, the high temperatures for the day have likely already been reached and should drop slowly through the remainder of the day as Arctic air continues to filter into the region. Bitter cold conditions for tonight with late night lows likely near 15 degrees in many spots and highs tomorrow will certainly do no better than the middle 20’s as the Arctic air mass becomes quite well established. Low pressure will then attempt to push northward just off the eastern seaboard by the early part of the upcoming weekend. Currently, that system appears to be more likely to generate accumulating snow to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a possible focus zone in the region from southeastern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to coastal southern New Jersey…still something to monitor though.
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An Arctic frontal system will work its way through the Mid-Atlantic region early tomorrow and some “post-frontal” snow can cause slick spots on the roads from about the time of the AM rush hour to around mid-day. Rain will break out later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of the Arctic front, but then as colder air filters into the region, precipitation will mix with and then change over to snow right around morning commute time on Thursday. Accumulations are likely to end up in the 1-3 inch range by mid-day tomorrow after the changeover takes place. Bitter cold conditions will follow the system for tomorrow night and Friday with overnight lows in the 10-15 degree range and highs doing no better than the 20’s to end the work week.
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Accumulating snow is likely early tomorrow upon the arrival of the next Arctic air mass as low pressure will form along an incoming frontal boundary zone. Rain will break out later this evening ahead of the Arctic front, but then mix with or change to snow towards daybreak in the northern and western suburbs as colder air filters into the region. The threat of snow will be greatest for about a 5 or 6 hour period from its likely beginning in the 6-8 AM time period. I expect accumulations of 1-3 inches in the DC metro region with isolated higher amounts possible, and while not a significant amount, the timing of the snow will not be great as it will coincide with at least part of the AM rush hour on Thursday. Bitter cold air will flow in behind the system on Thursday night and Friday and then another low pressure system will have to be watched for the early part of the weekend. Currently, that system is more likely to generate accumulating snow to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a possible focus on the zone from southeastern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to coastal southern New Jersey…still a close call though.
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An Arctic frontal boundary zone will be a key player in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days as it will be a focus area for the formation of low pressure systems. One such low pressure system should bring a period of accumulating snow early Thursday upon the arrival of the next Arctic blast. Another low pressure system will form along the stalled-out frontal boundary zone at week’s end and the extent to which it can push to the north will dictate how much snow, if any, can fall on Friday night and/or Saturday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system will have to be watched for later in the upcoming weekend as the cold and active weather pattern in the eastern US will continue right through the rest of the month.
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The overall weather pattern looks active and quite cold for the next couple of weeks with multiple snow threats and cold air outbreaks on the table. The first threat of snow will come early Thursday with the arrival of the next Arctic air mass. Low pressure is likely to form along the incoming frontal boundary zone and overnight rain can change to a period of snow early on Thursday. This looks like a minor-to-moderate type of event - perhaps on the order of a coating to 2 or 3 inches - but the timing may not be all that good as it could coincide with the AM rush hour on Thursday. Very cold air will follow for Thursday night and Friday as we get well into the next Arctic air mass. Looking ahead, there is the threat for more snow on Friday night and Saturday and this one has a great deal of potential. One question at this point is how far north up the coast this system can come late in the week as it moves along the same stalled-out frontal boundary zone…stay tuned…an interesting couple of weeks.
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