An active weather pattern will result in plenty of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days with a soaker tonight and then additional rain later on Thursday. After that, it doesn’t exactly clear out as a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will set up shop over the northeastern part of the nation for Friday and Saturday bringing us cool, unsettled weather will additional showers possible.
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A soaking rain event is on the way for the DC metro region from later this morning into early Wednesday and that will not be the end of the rain for this active weather week. Low pressure will pass nearby later tonight and then a cold front will approach the area later Thursday with additional rain and possibly a thunderstorm. An upper-level low will keep it unsettled around here on Friday and Saturday and it’ll be on the cool side. Looking ahead, there are signs for a decent warm up next week in the eastern states.
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High pressure will be in control today, but this will no doubt turn out to be quite an active week of weather. It looks like a soaking rain event is on the way for Tuesday night and Wednesday and then more rain is likely during the second half of the week. Low pressure will approach the area later tomorrow and a second one arrives on Thursday along a strong cold frontal system. Following the passage of the cold front, a colder-than-normal air mass will arrive for the end of the week and stick around into the weekend.
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Following the passage of a strong cold front, it’ll turn cooler today, but it remains windy and quite unsettled as a large upper-level trough of low pressure swings through the northeastern part of the nation. Clouds will dominate the skies with a chance of showers today and perhaps even a thunderstorm. The weather calms down tonight and temperatures will drop down into the middle 30’s in many suburban locations. Another upper-level trough will move over the Mid-Atlantic region during the second half of the weekend which will bring us a chance of showers on Saturday night and Sunday. And yet another system threatens to pull out of the southern US next week and bring us a soaking rain event on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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There was a severe weather outbreak yesterday across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley and many of the same catalysts will move in the eastern states by later today. At the surface, strong low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into western Quebec and it’ll help to lift a warm front across our area paving the way for a surge in temperatures into the 70’s in many spots. This surge in temperatures will be aided by intervals of sunshine that should develop later today just ahead of a strong cold frontal system. This front will move from west-to-east and it’ll approach the I-95 corridor region by the end of the day.
In the upper atmosphere, a complex weather pattern will feature multiple jet streaks and numerous shortwaves - all leading to increasing upward motion later today/tonight centered right over the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers will be of the isolated-to-scattered variety for the bulk of the day; however, more numerous showers will overspread the region by the early evening hours. In addition, the threat for severe thunderstorm activity will increase as we go through the evening hours with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes on the table.
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*Strong-to-severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into the evening*
A strong cold front will push towards the east coast today and the result here will be a windy and much warmer day with gusts to 45 mph or so and temperatures surging to near 70 degrees. Showers will be rather scattered in nature through the bulk of the morning, but become more numerous later in the day. Rain later today into tonight can be heavy at times and there can be a severe thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture along with a continuation of the strong winds. It turns cooler on Friday following the passage of the cold front, but still somewhat unsettled, and more showers are possible by the second half of the weekend.
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Warmer air to our south and west will make an advance in this direction today and for awhile, it will be forced to ride up and over the cold air mass still in place. As a result of this “overrunning” process, there can be a bit of rain and/or ice early today, but it’ll turn much milder this afternoon and a plain rain shower is possible along with partial sunshine. By tomorrow, the warmer air will win out in its entirety and temperatures are likely to surge into the 70’s, but this dramatic warm up will come at a cost. Showers are likely to develop in the afternoon hours and the late day and evening could feature some strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity in the region as a cold front closes in on the eastern seaboard. The passage of this next cold front will result in a cooler air mass for Friday and highs will be near the 60 degree mark on both weekend days.
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A severe weather outbreak on Wednesday and Wednesday night is coming to the same part of the nation that was hit hard last week including the Deep South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. One of the highest weather risks in this region will be for damaging wind gusts aided by strong jet streaks in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In addition, tornadoes may become rather numerous with many ingredients coming together in the atmosphere for rotation to form in many locations. The severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states on Thursday - albeit not quite as high - as a strong cold front pushes towards the coast and damaging wind gusts will again be on the table. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue for the central and eastern US into at least the middle of April and this will likely result in additional severe weather outbreaks.
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The unusual chill will stick around into early tomorrow and then much warmer air to our south and west will an advance in this direction. Initially, the warmer air will be forced to ride up and over the entrenched cold air mass late tonight and early Wednesday and this “overrunning” process can result in a bit of rain or ice. It should turn much milder tomorrow afternoon with a plain rain shower possible along with some partial sunshine. By Thursday, the warmer air will win out in its entirety and temperatures are likely to surge to 75 degrees in the DC metro region. This dramatic warm up on Thursday will come at a cost, however, as showers are likely and a strong-to-severe thunderstorm can form along and just ahead of incoming strong cold front. That same front may cause another outbreak of severe weather later tomorrow into Wednesday night across much of the same area that was hit last week (Deep South, Tennessee Valley). The passage of this next cold front will result in a cooler air mass around here for Friday and it remains on the cool side this weekend.
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This is quite impressive cold today in the Mid-Atlantic region with many spots likely to have a real struggle to reach the freezing mark for highs – very late in the season for that to occur. The combination of early morning “spring-strength” sunshine and very cold conditions aloft has quickly destabilized the atmosphere and numerous snow showers and heavier snow squalls will affect the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick accumulation and create dangerous driving conditions. Winds remain strong as well today from a northwesterly direction producing wind chills even lower than the unusually cold actual air temperatures. Unfortunately, it looks like the cold air outbreaks can continue into the middle part of April.
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