The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around this time of year and it is certainly living up to its billing. Lee remains a category 3 “major’ hurricane today and continues to move slowly on a west-northwest track over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It will soon take a turn to the north as it becomes increasingly influenced by an upper-level trough that will build over the eastern states. Lee will likely have a significant impact on eastern New England this weekend with heavy rains and strong winds as it pushes towards Maine or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm or a “post-tropical” system. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Margot has reached hurricane status; however, its future looks rather harmless as it likely weakens on its northward trek to a position over the Northern Atlantic. Another tropical system is located over the eastern Atlantic and it should intensify in coming days as it pushes over some very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic.
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A strong cool front begins to approach the area later today and then passes through later Wednesday. This frontal system will renew the threat of showers and thunderstorms around here for tonight and Wednesday and, once again, any rain that falls can be on the heavy side and any storm that forms can reach strong-to-severe levels. High pressure will follow the mid-week frontal passage and will generate beautiful weather here for the period of Thursday through Monday. Temperatures in this late week/weekend stretch will generally hold in the 70’s for afternoon highs and 50’s for overnight lows…quite comfortable for the middle of September.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around this time of year and it is certainly living up to its billing. Lee is a category 3 “major’ hurricane today and continues to move slowly on a west-northwest track over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It will take a turn to the north later in the week as it becomes increasingly influenced by an upper-level trough that will build over the central and eastern states. Lee will likely have a significant impact on eastern New England this weekend with heavy rains and strong winds as it pushes towards Maine or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm or “post-tropical” system.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm Margot may indeed reach hurricane status in the near-term; however, its future looks rather harmless as it likely stays over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Another tropical system has just pushed off the west coast of Africa and is now located over the far eastern Atlantic. It is likely that this system intensifies in coming days and may ultimately present a threat to the US east coast sometime later this month.
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The week begins with a nearby frontal system and the result will be a continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region and any rain that falls can be heavy at times. An even stronger cool front approaches the area later tomorrow and passes through on Wednesday and this system will renew the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro region. High pressure will follow the mid-week frontal passage and will generate beautiful weather for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. On the tropical scene, Lee is a category 3 “major” hurricane this morning as it very slowly churns across the tropical Atlantic. It will begin to make a northward turn later in the week and could have an impact on eastern New England by the weekend…still being closely monitored.
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A frontal system will stall out in the nearby vicinity today and the result will be a continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms that’ll last through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Any rain that falls in this unsettled weather pattern can be heavy at times and any thunderstorm can be severe. In terms of temperatures, they’ll gradually drop off during the next few days with highs in the lower 80’s likely by Sunday and Monday. On the tropical scene, Hurricane Lee strengthened rapidly late yesterday all the way into a “category 5” classification…will continue to be closely monitored over the next several days.
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Lee is intensifying rapidly and is likely to become a “major” hurricane later in the day as a category 3 or even higher. The overall environment is very favorable for the strengthening of Lee with the relaxation of wind shear as it moves underneath an upper-level ridge and its WNW trek continues over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Lee has been on a consistent path to the WNW and that should bring it to a position north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
By early next week, the west-to-northwest path of Lee should change to a northerly direction which would reduce the chances of a direct impact on the US east coast. However, any small deviation in the timing or magnitude of this potential “turn” can have significant implications downstream. Two systems that will likely play a big role in the ultimate track of Lee are many days away from even forming. They include an upper-level trough that may develop over the Ohio Valley/eastern US later next week and an upper-level ridge that may intensify over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic.
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Today will be another hot and humid one in the Mid-Atlantic region, but unlike recent days, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance of showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro region will increase later this afternoon and then continue through the nighttime hours as a cool front approaches the area. This front stalls out nearby on Friday and the result will be a continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms from tomorrow through the upcoming weekend. Any rain that falls in this developing unsettled pattern can be heavy at times and any thunderstorm can be severe. In terms of temperatures, they’ll peak once again today up in the 90’s, but then gradually scale down during the next few days.
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Tropical Storm Lee is on the door step of “category 1” hurricane classification and all indications are that it will continue to intensify and reach “major” hurricane status by the weekend. In fact, the expected significant intensification of Lee could result in the storm climbing all the way to “category 5” classification sometime this weekend or early next week. The overall environment becomes very favorable for the strengthening of Lee with a relaxation of wind shear and a west-to-northwest trek over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. By early next week, the west-to-northwest path of Lee could change to a northerly direction which would reduce the chances of a direct impact on the US east coast. However, two systems that will likely dictate the ultimate storm track of Lee are many days away from even forming. They include an upper-level trough that may form over the Ohio valley/eastern US and upper-level ridge that may intensify over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic. It is simply too early to say how this upper air pattern will unfold; therefore, too early to say if Lee can indeed directly impact the US east coast.
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With high pressure still in control, the high heat and humidity will continue for another couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, the heat both this afternoon and on Thursday can break records in some spots with expected highs well up in the 90’s (see below). Later tomorrow, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a frontal system approaches the area from the northwest. This front will tend to stall out in the general vicinity late in the week and that will result in unsettled weather conditions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms.
On the tropical scene, “Lee” will be closely monitored in coming days as it intensifies rapidly and potentially becomes a threat to the US east coast. Lee will probably reach hurricane status later today and will likely become a “major” hurricane by the weekend…maybe even intensify all the way to a “category 5” storm.
Record highs for today at the nearby airport are as follows (and all are in jeopardy): DCA (98 degrees, 1954), IAD (98 degrees, 1983), BWI (98 degrees, 1983)
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A tropical wave that pushed off of Africa’s west coast several days ago has officially become tropical depression #13 in the Atlantic Ocean. This system is likely to reach named tropical storm status within 24 hours or so (will be named Lee) and very well could intensify to “major” hurricane status by the upcoming weekend. The overall environment will become increasingly conducive for intensification of the soon-to-be named tropical system in coming days as it continues on a long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear will relax as an upper-level ridge builds nearby and it’ll move over very warm waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, it appears this system may push to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles - avoiding the Caribbean Sea - and then head on a course towards the US east coast as a “major” hurricane. Whether or not this developing tropical storm ever reaches the US east coast is simply too early to call.
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