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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

7:00 AM | **An Arctic air mass arrives on strong NW winds...below-freezing temperatures in the overnight hours**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front came through the region last night and it has ushered into the Mid-Atlantic region an unseasonably cold air mass for this time of year with its origins up in the Arctic region. Temperatures today will do no better than the mid-to-upper 40’s for afternoon highs and there will be a strong NW wind producing much lower wind chill values. Temperatures are likely to drop to below-freezing later tonight bottoming out near 30 degrees across some suburban locations. With high pressure in control at mid-week, there should be plenty of sunshine on Wednesday; however, temperatures will remain below-normal throughout the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | **An unusually cold air mass in the Mid-Atlantic region during the first half of the week...near 30 degrees late tomorrow night for low temperatures**

Paul Dorian

A cold front came through the region last night and low pressure has tracked along it into the northeastern part of the nation bringing with it occasional shower activity. A secondary cold front pushes through late tonight and it will usher in an unusually cold air mass to the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures are going to fall to the middle 30’s late tonight following this initial frontal system and then to near 30 degrees late Tuesday night following the passage of the secondary cold front.

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6:15 AM | *Unsettled right through the weekend with rain at times...maybe a few more strong thunderstorms...cold snap next week...at or below freezing on Tuesday night*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains unsettled right through the upcoming weekend with a series of frontal systems producing occasional rain, heavy at times, and a few more strong thunderstorms can mix into the picture. The weather turns colder early next week with an initial cold frontal passage on Sunday night and then a secondary on Monday night. Temperatures are likely to drop to or slightly below the freezing mark on Tuesday night during this upcoming early April cold snap.

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6:15 AM | *A surge in temperatures today following the passage of a warm front...unsettled conditions through the weekend*

Paul Dorian

Temperatures should surge today following the overnight passage of a warm frontal system with highs this afternoon near 80 degrees. This warm front (and additional fronts) will keep it unsettled around here from today through the upcoming weekend with occasional showers and maybe a few strong thunderstorms mixed into the picture. Looking ahead, a colder-than-normal air mass arrives in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Monday and it looks like the first half of next week will feature below-normal temperatures for this time of year with near-freezing conditions likely on Tuesday night.

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***Severe weather outbreak likely with multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes...a multi-day extreme rain/flooding event...areas of concern include TN Valley, MS Valley, OH Valley, and Mid-South***

Paul Dorian

The risk is high today for a severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South and this threat includes the possibility of multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes. Numerous ingredients are coming together to result in a widespread severe weather outbreak later today and tonight including strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, a clash of air masses with cold, dry air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the east and south, and a strong surface low pressure system with its attendant cold front. In addition to the severe weather, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way for much of this same part of the nation from later today through the first half of the weekend with widespread flooding a serious concern.

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7:00 AM | *A warm frontal passage later tonight leads to a surge in temperatures on Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 70's*

Paul Dorian

It starts off chilly this morning, but temperatures should be able to climb back to near 60 degrees this afternoon with plenty of clouds around as a warm front approaches the area. That warm front can produce a shower or two around here later tonight and then temperatures should surge on Thursday following its passage with tomorrow’s highs in the upper 70’s. This front (and additional fronts) will keep it somewhat unsettled around here for the late week and weekend with a daily shot at some shower activity and a few thunderstorms may be mixed into the picture. Looking ahead, a colder-than-normal air mass arrives in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Monday and it looks like the first half of next week will feature below-normal temperatures for this time of year.

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***Severe weather on Wed/Wed Night with multiple strong tornadoes a risk...a multi-day extreme rain/flooding event...both of which will be focused on the Middle MS Valley/TN Valley/Ohio Valley***

Paul Dorian

An on-going active weather pattern will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight across the middle of the country and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will become enhanced across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley and, this time, multiple strong tornadoes will be on the table. In this same part of the nation, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way from later tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with widespread serious flooding a real concern.

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7:00 AM | *Windy and cooler today following the passage of a cold frontal system*

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front passed through the region in the overnight hours and cooler air will follow for today along with strong NW winds that can gust up to 35 mph or so. After a cold night with lows near 40 degrees, it’ll be breezy and mild on Wednesday along with partly sunny skies. A warm front will arrive on Wednesday night with scattered showers and temperatures should surge on Thursday following its passage with Thursday afternoon highs likely near the 80-degree mark. This front (and additional fronts) will keep it unsettled around here for the late week and weekend with a daily shot at some shower activity. Looking ahead, a colder-than-normal air mass arrives in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early next week and it looks like much of next week will feature below-normal temperatures.

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**Severe weather threat(s)...additional cold air outbreaks...stratospheric warming impact...recap of weekend's dramatic "back door" cold frontal passage**

Paul Dorian

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat later today and tonight across much of the eastern US including in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This same frontal system resulted in numerous damaging wind gusts on Sunday across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley with a few tornadoes reported there as well and that same part of the nation will likely have a repeat performance of severe weather on Wednesday. In fact, numerous severe weather outbreaks are on the table for the month of April largely as the result of a recent stratospheric warming event which, in turn, enhances the likelihood for additional cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern states setting up “battle zone” regions. Finally, we’ll revisit the passage of a “back door” cold front this weekend that impacted the northeastern states and, in some locations, there were record-breaking temperature swings.

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7:00 AM | **Rain late today and tonight and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms...rain can be heavy at times and there is a risk of damaging wind gusts with any late day/nighttime thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will approach the region later today and then push through late tonight bringing with it rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The rain will be scattered though mid-afternoon and then becomes more widespread late today and tonight and it can fall heavily at times bringing the risk of flash flooding to some parts of the area. Any thunderstorm late today/tonight can result in damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Following the cold frontal passage, it turns much cooler on Tuesday and breezy as well with temperatures holding in the upper 50’s for afternoon highs…below-normal for the first day of April. High pressure stays in control at mid-week, and then another strong frontal system approaches on Thursday with a surge of warmth on its front side pumping temperatures to near 80 degrees along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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