The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start now with nine named storms - the newest one being “Isaias”. Tropical Storm “Isaias” has been pounding away at Puerto Rico since last night with torrential rainfall and is now interacting with the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic). This particular island has mountainous terrain with peaks of over 10,000 feet and it is likely to limit the intensification of “Isaias” – at least in the short-term. In addition, an interaction with this northern Caribbean island frequently causes a “re-positioning” of the low-level circulation center of a given tropical cyclone so we’ll look for that to take place over the next 12-24 hours. After that, Tropical Storm “Isasis” is likely to significantly impact the Bahama Islands - perhaps as a hurricane - and likely take a track over or just off the east coast of Florida with substantial rainfall and strong winds on the table. There is a chance that the moisture field of the tropical storm then rides up along the southeast US coastline to the Carolinas - and potentially as far north as the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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An active weather pattern continues across the Tennessee Valley with multiple short waves that will rotate through an upper-level trough of low pressure. As a result, there will be a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms and any storm can result in some heavy rainfall given high available moisture. In addition, a big change will be to the temperature pattern beginning today as highs should be confined to the 80’s for the next few days as compared with the recent experience with the persistent 90’s. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Isaias continues on a WNW track this morning that should take it towards the Bahamas and Florida this weekend.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another wave that has reached the Caribbean Sea is quite likely to become the ninth (“Isaias”). This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and had somewhat limited intensification possibilities over the past few days as it battled with dry air in the central Atlantic that originated over the Sahara Desert region of northern Africa. As such, the tropical wave appeared rather elongated and disorganized yesterday morning, but has since “escaped” the dry air mass and is now becoming better organized. There is a good chance that this system will reach tropical storm status in the next 24 hours and continue on a west-to-northwest track which will result in an impact on the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba as well as the Bahamas.
After that, the tropical system may very well impact Florida by later Saturday, but its intensification prospects beforehand may be somewhat limited due to its possible interaction with these islands and a possible increase in southwesterly wind shear. By early next week, the tropical system could begin to take a more northerly track as it interacts with an unusually strong upper-level trough that will be “digging” into the south-central US and slowing down in its eastward progression. As a result, its moisture field could very well ride northward along the east coast in the early part of next week - potentially resulting in a significant rain event all the way from Florida to the Northeast US.
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An active weather pattern is unfolding for the Tennessee Valley with numerous short waves in coming days that will rotate through an upper-level trough of low pressure. As a result, there will be a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms and any storm can result in some heavy rainfall given high available moisture. In addition, a big change will be to the temperature pattern as beginning today, highs should be confined to the 80’s for the next few days as compared with the recent experience with the persistent 90’s throughout the region. Elsewhere, a tropical system continues on a track that should take it towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then perhaps to the Bahamas by the end of the week. This system could ultimately have an impact on the southeastern US during the early part of next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave closing in on the Lesser Antilles. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next couple of days as it continues on a general west-to-northwest track. There is a high probability that this system intensifies enough to become classified as a tropical storm and, if so, it would be named “Isaias” – the ninth named storm of the still relatively young 2020 tropical season and the earliest date for the “I” storm. There is a good chance that this system continues on a track that’ll bring it to near Puerto Rico later this week and then to the southern Bahama Islands at weeks end. After that, there is a growing chance that the likely-to-be-named “Isaias” will threaten Florida and the Southeast US by the latter part of the upcoming weekend.
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The new week started off with hot, humid conditions and scattered showers and thunderstorms – much the same type of weather as the previous several days. Big changes are coming, however, by the middle of the week in the Tennessee Valley. A fairly unsettled weather pattern will develop as an upper-level trough drops southward from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley during the mid-week. One big change here will be the noticeable change in temperatures which started the week well up in the 90’s for afternoon highs, but likely will be confined to the 80’s during the latter part of the week. Elsewhere, we’re keeping a close eye on the tropics as a system in the central Atlantic could threaten the Southeast US by early next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave over the central Atlantic. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next few days as it takes a general W-NW track. There is a good chance that this system moves first towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then to near the Bahamas over the next several days. Whether or not this tropical system ultimately impacts the Southeast US may be largely dependent on an unusually strong upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central states by the weekend.
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The new week will start off with much of the same type of weather as the old week with hot, humid conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Big changes are coming, however, by the middle of the week. A fairly unsettled weather pattern will develop around here at mid-week as an upper-level trough drops southward from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. One big change will be with respect to the temperatures which will start the week well up in the 90’s for afternoon highs, but likely be confined to the 80’s during the second half of the week.
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The Atlantic Basin now features three tropical systems to closely monitor in this very active early part of the 2020 tropical season. Tropical Storm Hanna is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico and is on a path to make landfall on Saturday in southeastern Texas - quite likely as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Gonzalo has been relatively steady recently in terms of its intensity, but there are signs that it should weaken over the next couple of days as it moves towards the Caribbean Sea. A third and quite large tropical wave has just emerged from the west coast of Africa and it has great potential for intensification over the next several days. This third system is likely to head to a position quite close to where Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently resides, and it very well could have an impact on the US in 10-15 days.
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Tropical air remains well-entrenched across the region as we end the work week and this will lead to another hot and humid day along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. More of the same weather can be expected this weekend with highs in the 90’s and a continuing shot at daily showers and thunderstorms. The first half of next week is likely to be a bit less hot than the next few days. Then a strong front may bring bring cooler temperatures for the second half of next week as an upper-level trough forms in the eastern US. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active with Tropical Storm Hannah over the western Gulf of Mexico closing in on the Texas coastline and Tropical Storm Gonzalo churning to the west over the central Atlantic. This second system will end up pushing over the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
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