A severe weather outbreak is in the cards for later today and tonight in much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region and it can result in severe thunderstorms across northern Alabama by the evening. The combination of strong and strengthening low pressure, an incoming cold, dry air mass, and increasingly humid air near the Gulf will lead to widespread showers and storms later today and tonight and some of those storms can reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts the main risk though isolated tornadoes are on the table as well.
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The month of March is now underway and it certainly can feature multiple severe weather outbreaks as the air becomes increasingly warm and humid across the southern states at the same time colder-than-normal air masses continue to push south and east from Canada into the US. The ingredients are falling into place for severe weather during each of the next three days as indeed colder-than-normal air from the western states will push eastward into a warmer-than-normal air mass that today will be centered over the central states. The main threat zone for severe weather today is likely to extend from Texas-to-Oklahoma-to-Kansas and then an enhanced risk is likely on Tuesday centered over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region. Spring-like storm conditions will reach the eastern states on Wednesday with windy, warmer weather, soaking rainfall, and the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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A severe weather outbreak is in the cards for Tuesday and Tuesday night in much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region and it can result in severe thunderstorms across northern Alabama. The combination of intensifying low pressure over the Northern Plains/western Great Lakes, an incoming cold, dry air mass, and increasingly humid air near the Gulf will lead to showers and storms later tomorrow and tomorrow night and some of those storms can reach severe levels. Winds will gusts past 40 mph from mid-day Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon and the highest risk of severe weather during any thunderstorm that forms will be for damaging wind gusts.
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A mild and relatively dry stretch of weather should into the upcoming weekend, but the quiet pattern is likely to end next week. Signs point to a possible severe weather outbreak across the southern states by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week...something we’ll closely monitor in the days to come.
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Today’s weather features above-normal temperatures across much of the nation and the next couple of days will remain on the mild side in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures approaching 60 degrees in some areas. We are about to flip the calendar from February to March and it appears quite likely that there will be occasional cold air intrusions from Canada into the US during the next few weeks. Supporting evidence for additional cold air outbreaks during the month of March include the strong likelihood of a “disrupted” stratospheric polar vortex with significant warming near the North Pole by the middle of March and the movement of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These occasional cold air outbreaks will contribute to an overall active weather pattern in the month of March and likely set the stage multiple severe weather outbreaks. In addition, the continuing cold air intrusions will certainly keep hope alive for snow lovers with multiple upcoming chances; especially, across interior higher elevation locations of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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Today’s weather features above-normal temperatures across much of the nation and the remainder of the week will be generally on the mild side including in the Mid-Atlantic region where high temperatures of 60+ degrees will be commonplace. As nice as it may feel during the next few days, it appears likely that additional cold air outbreaks will make their way from Canada into the US during the next few weeks and this “back and forth” in temperatures could set the stage for multiple severe weather outbreaks during the month of March perhaps with a focus in the region from the Gulf coast to the Tennessee Valley. As the new month progresses, increasing strength of the sun will allow for warmer air masses to develop down across the southern states and any incoming cold air mass from Canada can produce “clash zones” with the prospects of severe weather. One such threat could take place next week somewhere in the middle of the nation with cold air from the north and west pushing towards warm, humid air to the south and east and there can be a repeat performance in the week to follow.
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A mild and relatively quiet week continues across the Tennessee Valley with today’s high temperatures in the middle 60’s to go along with mainly sunny skies. A shower or two is possible on Wednesday night and Thursday; otherwise, dry conditions should accompany the mild temperature pattern through the upcoming weekend.
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A mild and relatively quiet week in the Tennessee Valley with the 60’s for highs likely on most days and we could touch 70 degrees at mid-week. A shower or two possible on Thursday; otherwise, dry conditions will accompany the mild temperatures.
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Arctic high pressure that has dominated the weather pattern during the past few days will finally weaken and shift to the east of here as we move into the weekend. As such, temperatures will begin a climb from afternoon highs in the 30’s today to near 50 degrees on Sunday and then the middle 60’s are on the table during the first half of next week.
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Arctic air covers much of the nation again today with a continuing tight grip on the central states where numerous daily low temperature records have been set all the way from the Dakotas to Texas and, in a few cases, monthly low temperature records have been challenged. The average temperature across the continental US earlier today was 15.0°F below the average for this time of year and, in a few spots, temperatures were between 45 and 50 degrees below the average (e.g., Nebraska, SW Missouri). Temperatures will gradually moderate over the upcoming weekend and next week promises to feature above-normal temperatures across a wide part of the nation. It is, however, quite likely that additional very cold air masses will be able to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as the month of March gets underway.
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