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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: HSV
High pressure nearby remains in control of our weather as we wind down the work week and then it’ll slide to the east of here by the weekend. As a result, it’ll turn more unsettled this weekend and slightly cooler with the chance of showers returning to the area.
Read MoreIn our “2026-2027 Winter Outlook” that was issued a couple of weeks ago, we focused on the strong El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean that looks to continue well into the upcoming winter season. In addition, we discussed in detail the generally favorable prospects for a polar vortex disruption during the upcoming winter; especially, during the second half of the season. Little did we know that there could be polar vortex disruption as soon as the early-to-middle part of November which would be quite a rare event indeed for this early in the season. Computer forecast models indicate there will be a weakening of stratospheric winds sometime during the first half of November indicating a slowing or disruption of the Arctic polar vortex which could have “winter-like” ramifications on the weather across the continental US later in the month or during December.
Read MoreHigh pressure nearby remains in control of our weather as we being the new work week and then will slide to the east of here by middle and latter parts of the week. As a result, it’ll turn warmer as the week progresses with afternoon highs at or slightly above the 80-degree mark during the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday time period.
Read MoreHigh pressure to our north will control the weather around here for the next several days with cool nights and pleasantly mild days. Meanwhile, strong low pressure will hang around the western Atlantic Ocean for another couple of days, but its impact in the eastern US will be mainly confined to coastal sections.
Read MoreHigh pressure to our north will control the weather around here for the bulk of the week with cool nights and pleasant days. Meanwhile, strong low pressure will hang around the western Atlantic for much of the week, but its impact in the eastern US will be mainly confined to coastal sections.
Read MoreTemperatures today will remain on the warm side, but about ten degrees lower than yesterday following the passage of a frontal system. A strong front will usher in even cooler air for the weekend with highs on both days likely in the mid-to-upper 60’s.
Read MoreToday will again feature unseasonably warm conditions with afternoon highs flirting with the 90-degree mark in the metro area. It’ll be more manageable in terms of temperatures tomorrow following the passage of an initial frontal system and then even cooler this weekend behind a second front.
Read MoreA very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.
Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
Read MoreHurricane Isaias continues to intensify and can reach strong category 2 status by later today or possibly even “major” category 3 classification. Landfall is likely early tonight somewhere near the Mobile Bay region of the central Gulf coast. Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk later tonight and on Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After tomorrow, the impact from Isaias will continue well to the north of the Gulf coast with its rain shield moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
Read MoreHurricane Isaias indeed intensified during the past 24 hours and is now right on the verge of classification as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is likely around midnight on Friday night near the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle. There can be some weakening of Isaias in the few hours just before landfall due to increasing wind shear; nonetheless, it will remain a dangerous hurricane with heavy rain, damaging winds, and significant storm surge along the Gulf coast. Impacts will extend northward to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday with heavy rain, damaging winds and potentially severe weather to include the risk of isolated tornadoes. Rain and wind will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms mixed into the picture as well.
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