The risk is high today for a severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South and this threat includes the possibility of multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes. Numerous ingredients are coming together to result in a widespread severe weather outbreak later today and tonight including strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, a clash of air masses with cold, dry air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the east and south, and a strong surface low pressure system with its attendant cold front. In addition to the severe weather, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way for much of this same part of the nation from later today through the first half of the weekend with widespread flooding a serious concern.
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An on-going active weather pattern will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight across the middle of the country and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will become enhanced across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley and, this time, multiple strong tornadoes will be on the table. In this same part of the nation, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way from later tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with widespread serious flooding a real concern.
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We all know the words…
“the weather started getting rough, the tiny shipped was tossed…”
Indeed, stormy weather played a critical role in the shipwrecking of the S.S. Minnow on that fateful day in late September 1964 onto an uncharted “desert” island somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. The ship set sail that day on a three-hour tour with five passengers, the captain of the S.S. Minnow, Jonas Grumby (aka Skipper), and his first mate named Gilligan. A sudden storm interrupted the tour, damaged the tiny ship, and the two-man crew somehow managed to steer the boat to safety onto an uninhabited island not far from the Hawaiian Islands.
For years, there has been a cloud hanging over the head of the Skipper as the result of conjecture that he was somehow at fault on that day in putting the passengers at risk. However, new evidence has come to light that should exonerate the Skipper once and for all from any wrongdoing.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) is a collection of technologies that allow computers to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, and it is increasingly impacting the world of weather forecasting. The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) has made strides with its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) as it has recently become fully operational and is now run side-by-side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). According to the ECMWF, the AIFS has outperformed the physics-based model for many measures including, for example, tropical cyclone tracks. The increasingly important role of AI in weather forecasting will be to supplement and enhance traditional NWP models…and not to replace the. In addition to the ECMWF AIFS, there are at least four other known “A.I. trained” weather models including NOAA/Google GraphCast, Microsoft’s Aurora, NVIDIA’s FourCast, and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather.
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March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era before computer forecast models were being utilized by weather forecasters on a daily basis and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
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The winter of 1992-1993 was not bad at all in the Mid-Atlantic region in terms of cold and snow, but one storm at the end of the season will put that particular winter in the history books forever. One of the most intense storms ever observed in the eastern US took place from March 12-14, 1993 and it will be forever known as the “Storm of the Century”. This intense storm generated tremendous snowfall totals from Alabama through Maine, high winds all along the east coast, extreme coastal flooding along the Florida west coast and incredibly low barometric pressures across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The aftermath of the “Storm of the Century” was unseasonably cold and broke records in many spots for the middle of March. To this day, the storm also known as the “Superstorm of 1993” ranks among the deadliest and most costly weather events in US history.
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Running for his third presidential term, Franklin Roosevelt made a 1940 campaign promise to allow for the training of African American military pilots. In cooperation with the Tuskegee Institute in Alabama which was founded by Booker T. Washington in 1881, the Army created a program in 1941 to induct and train what would eventually amount to more than 14,000 airmen, of whom about 1,000 would become pilots; the others became navigators, bombardiers, radio operators, administrators, support personnel - and some became weathermen.
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It was a little past 1 AM on February 3rd, 1959 when American musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J.P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson were killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa along with pilot Roger Peterson. Weather conditions were certainly contributing factors in the plane crash as there was poor visibility on that cold night with snow blowing across the runway. Hours before, Holly and his tour mates were on the eleventh night of their “Winter Dance Party” tour through the snow-covered Midwest. It was a Monday and a school night, but 1,100 teenagers crammed into the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa for two sold out shows with the second one ending around midnight. The event later became known as “The Day the Music Died” after singer-songwriter Don McLean referred to it as such in his 1971 song “American Pie” which paid homage to the tragedy of February 3rd, 1959.
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Today marks the 39th anniversary of the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on January 28, 1986, when the NASA Space Shuttle orbiter Challenger (mission STS-51-L) broke apart 73 seconds into its flight leading to the deaths of its seven crew members. STS-51-L was the 25th American Space Shuttle Program flight since the program began in 1981. It was also the first mission to have a civilian on board, American teacher Christa McAuliffe. The spacecraft disintegrated over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida at 11:39 EST (16:39 UTC). According to the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, weather conditions were likely one of the factors that contributed to the incident. Tests conducted during the subsequent investigation showed that O-rings were much less resilient at lower temperatures, but the extreme cold at the Kennedy Space Center was not the only weather factor involved with this tragedy. Wind shear aloft may have been a contributing factor as well with two different airstreams in the vicinity of the launch site of the Space Shuttle Challenger.
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Bitter cold Arctic air persists across much of the nation with numerous daily low temperature records set across the southern and eastern states. In fact, a few all-time low temperature records were set this morning across southern Louisiana where clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, deep snowpack allowed temperatures to plunge to single digit levels across the region. A rare major winter storm has brought significant accumulating snow across the southern US from Texas-to-Florida-to-the Carolinas and, in some cases, this matched or surpassed the great winter storm of February 1895. The precipitation field associated with this southern storm will push off the southeast coast today, but the bitter cold will persist for a bit longer.
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