The weather pattern is certainly quite interesting as we close in on the winter season with one of the strongest El Nino events in at least the last fifty years and one of the earliest stratospheric warming events ever recorded over the polar region of the northern hemisphere. In the past, very strong El Nino events have resulted in much warmer-than-normal conditions during December across much of the continental US including the most recent episode of 2015-2016. The current El Nino, however, is by no means your normal “east-based” event as a rare early stratospheric warming event over the polar region throws a monkey wrench in the conventional idea of a warm month of December. Indeed, there are signs of a widespread cold air outbreak later in November during what is likely to be an active Thanksgiving Day week, and signals point to the chance for additional cold air outbreaks as we progress through the first half of December. In fact, it could end up being a very interesting period of weather between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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Fifty-one years have passed since a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior taking the lives of all 29 crew members on November 10th, 1975. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and to this day she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on November 9th, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan when the storm hit.
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An unusually early polar vortex disruption is now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and it could have winter-like implications on the weather across portions of the continental US later this month and during the month of December. In a typical strong El Nino winter season, mild Pacific Ocean air can overwhelm the nation, but this rare early season polar vortex disruption throws a monkey wrench into the whole concept of a “normal” El Nino winter season. An analysis of upper-level data records going as far back as the 1950’s show just how rare this polar vortex disruption is with the closest analog coming in late November of 1968...some three weeks later than the current rare early season event. One final note, most computer forecast models are not currently showing much in the way of cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern during the second half of this month; however, I would expect them to trend colder very soon as they start “picking up” on this rare early season polar vortex disruption.
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Rapid changes in weather can be experienced in the northeastern US during the latter stages of October as to the west, cold Canadian air masses begin to regularly drop from Canada into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, and to the east, the Atlantic Ocean remains relatively warm as it loses its stored summer heat more slowly than the continent. In fact, hurricanes can still form over the still relatively warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the contrast between the increasingly frequent cold air masses to the west and the warmth to the east often results in powerful storms just offshore. In late October 1991, several ingredients converged to create an immensely powerful storm that took on a few names including “The Halloween Nor’easter” or the “Unnamed Hurricane”. The most well-known name for this storm, however, is “The Perfect Storm” with a book and subsequent film of the same name.
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In our “2026-2027 Winter Outlook” that was issued a couple of weeks ago, we focused on the strong El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean that looks to continue well into the upcoming winter season. In addition, we discussed in detail the generally favorable prospects for a polar vortex disruption during the upcoming winter; especially, during the second half of the season. Little did we know that there could be polar vortex disruption as soon as the early-to-middle part of November which would be quite a rare event indeed for this early in the season. Computer forecast models indicate there will be a weakening of stratospheric winds sometime during the first half of November indicating a slowing or disruption of the Arctic polar vortex which could have “winter-like” ramifications on the weather across the continental US later in the month or during December.
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The 2026 World Series begins on Friday night, October 23rd, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin between the hometown Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays. Neither team has ever won The Fall Classic with the Brewers losing once in 1982 to the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Rays losing twice in 2020 to the Los Angeles Dodgers and 2008 to the Philadelphia Phillies. Note – the Milwaukee Braves did win one championship in their tenure during the 1957 season by beating the New York Yankees and that franchise ultimately moved to Atlanta after the 1965 season.
One interesting facet of this World Series is that the Milwaukee Brewers play in a stadium with a retractable roof and the Tampa Bay Rays play in the only big-league stadium that features a permanent roof. As a result, the weather is likely be a minimal factor during the World Series, which cannot be said for numerous games in recent history where the weather ranged from biting cold to extreme heat and included snow or rain on many occasions.
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A very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.
Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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New England is currently experiencing a “hurricane drought” without having a direct hit in 35 years since Hurricane Bob made landfall in 1991. One of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and New England on this date, September 21, in the year 1938. It was the first major hurricane to strike New England since the year 1869. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph!
Today marks the 88th anniversary of storm known as "The Great New England Hurricane of 1938" as well as "The Long Island Express" and the "Yankee Clipper". With no warning, the powerful category 3 hurricane (previously a category 5) slammed into Long Island and southern New England causing approximately 682 deaths and massive devastation to coastal cities and became the most destructive storm to strike the region in the 20th century. Little media attention was given to the powerful hurricane while it was out at sea as Europe was on the brink of war and the overriding story of the time. There was no advanced meteorological technology such as radar or satellite imagery to warn of the storm’s approach.
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We have now reached rare territory for the Atlantic Basin due to the lack of hurricanes at this stage of the tropical season. In fact, this is the latest time without an Atlantic hurricane during the satellite era which began in 1966 and there is likelihood that one has to go all the way back to 1941 though confidence in the tracking of hurricanes is far less certain in the pre-satellite era. Having said that, an extremely quiet first half of the tropical season does not guarantee an uneventful second half…indeed, there are some signals that activity will pick up later this month.
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It is hard to believe that it was 25 years ago...a day that will never be forgotten...and the weather featured exceptionally clear, calm and sunny conditions across the Northeast US. A strong cold frontal system had pushed through the northeastern states on the previous night producing strong thunderstorms and paving the way for a spectacular weather day on Tuesday, September 11th, 2001. The 11th of September happens to fall right around the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and indeed there was a hurricane, Erin, that sat just 500 miles off the coast of New York City and its wind circulation helped to play a role in the aftermath of events that unfolded on that day.
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