The latest GOES-13 satellite image shows a widespread area of deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rains continuing over western Cuba where there has been significant flooding. Tropical Depression #9 is likely closing in on "tropical storm" status and it will be investigated this afternoon by NOAA hurricane hunters to better determine its actual current strength. All indications are that intensification will take place over the next couple of days as vertical wind shear over the system decreases. Heavy rain on the order of 6-12" is possible from this system across portions of central and northern Florida later this week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season is around the middle of September and tropical activity has certainly ramped up right on schedule. There are four different systems in the western part of the Atlantic Basin that bear watching over the next few days, an additional wave in the eastern Atlantic, and an impressive wave over the western part of Africa. The tropical system known last week as "99L" is now classified as a tropical depression (#9) and it could very well end Florida’s hurricane drought later this week. Another tropical depression (#8) is spinning towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could reach tropical storm status over the next few days. The strongest system right now is Hurricane Gaston and it is located out over the open Atlantic and should not have any direct impact on the US. Meanwhile, a fourth system that is currently unnamed and unnumbered is noticeably spinning east of the Bahamas - and it too bears watching. The wave over the west coast of Africa will be something to watch closely over the next 10 to 14 days or so.
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The tropical system still officially known as "99L" is currently located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. An area of showers and thunderstorms has increased in intensity and coverage during the past few hours, but it still appears to be separated from the low-level circulation center just off to its west. However, even though the system is currently disjointed, there are some factors that are favorable for intensification in the near term and this is reason to continue to closely monitor the situation; especially, for those in Florida and along the entire Gulf coast.
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The tropical system still officially known as 99L is currently located near the island of Hispaniola and it is still disorganized. The main areas of showers and thunderstorms are on the southern side of Hispaniola, but there is reason to believe the low-level circulation center is just to the north of the island (i.e., a disjointed system). There is mountainous terrain on Hispaniola and this will inhibit intensification of tropical system 99L in the short term; however, once passed this current obstacle, there are reasons to believe some intensification will take place. In fact, it is possible that a tropical storm (would be named Hermine) reaches Florida by late Sunday - perhaps as far south as the Florida Keys. After that, it could spill out into the Gulf of Mexico where additional development can take place - perhaps even to major hurricane status.
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Amazingly, the state of Florida has not had a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005. Hurricane Wilma was also the last major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) to strike US soil in what has turned out to be another amazing streak. Both of these streaks are unprecedented in the record-keeping era and there is a chance that one or both come to an end in the next week or so.
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Amazingly, the state of Florida has not had a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005. Hurricane Wilma was also the last major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) to strike US soil in what has turned out to be another amazing streak. As the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season approaches (mid-September), we now have quite an active scene with three different tropical systems. Tropical Depression Fiona is in a weakening state (at least for now) and it should have little or no impact on the US over the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Gaston is situated in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and it will likely strengthen significantly over the next few days as it heads in a general northwest fashion, but it is likely to never reach the US coastline before it curves towards the northern Atlantic. And then there is the third system - which is yet to be named - currently sitting a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. It is this system that has a good chance of intensification over the next few days (would become named Hermine), and it has a chance to end the hurricane drought in Florida by the early part of next week.
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The tropics are quite active now as we gradually move towards the climatological peak (mid September) of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season. There are three tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean and one of these is likely to completely dissipate in the next few days, a second may impact the northern Caribbean Sea or the Southeast US/Bahamas region, and a third is likely to strengthen significantly as it treks towards the US. The front runner system is Tropical Depression Fiona and it is of least concern as it shows little sign of intensification. On its heels is another tropical system that is of some real concern as it is entering an area of very moist air and it will take a southern route towards very warm waters of the western Atlantic or Caribbean Sea. The third system is far out in the eastern Atlantic and it will take more of a northern route towards the US east coast and it should strengthen noticeably in the near future; however, it is unclear as to whether it will ever even make it close to the US coastline.
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The official Atlantic Basin hurricane season has just begun and it may be more active than normal and more active than recent years as El Nino fades in the tropical Pacific Ocean and La Nina conditions develop (see tropical outlook). Tropical Storm "Bonnie" formed this past weekend and lasted as a minimal tropical storm for little more than 14-15 hours before making landfall Sunday morning near Charleston, SC. “Bonnie” has actually re-developed this morning into a tropical depression and is likely to produce additional heavy rainfall over coastal eastern North Carolina during the next 6-12 hours. In addition, signs indicate a new tropical storm is likely to form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week and then cut across Florida potentially producing several inches of rain for a good portion of the state. If this next system were to become a named tropical storm, it would be called “Colin” and be the third of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season (“Alex” formed in January).
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Let me paraphrase poet T.S. Eliot and say “April can be the cruelest month”. The long winter season is over, baseball is about to begin, trees are blossoming, and colorful early season flowers dot the landscape, yet all it takes this time of year is the passage of a strong cold front to put the Northeast US back in the deep freeze. Or, a simple shift of low-level winds to an onshore direction can bring about a quick twenty degree drop in temperatures as the ocean remains quite cold this time of year (i.e., the dreaded back door cold front). Indeed, just when it appeared that we were on the door step of sustained warmth in the Northeast US, it looks like the first 10 days or so of April will feature multiple cold air outbreaks and there may be numerous chances for snow.
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There is a blizzard raging today across the Rockies and it’ll greatly impact the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next 12 to 24 hours or so with significant snow and wind. By no means, however, is this winter’s last gasp for that part of the country and indeed, there are numerous signs for a major cold air outbreak for much of the central and eastern US as the calendar turns from March to April. Multiple “teleconnection” indices support the idea of a pattern change to colder-than-normal around here by the time April begins and it could last right into the second week of the month. Looking even farther ahead, once this upcoming cold spell disintegrates likely by the middle of next month, we could very well go from “winter-like” to “summer-like” in a hurry.
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