There are two big stories in the world of weather and both are covered in this discussion. First, an extended and significant rain event is headed to much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the period of late tomorrow into Saturday with the heaviest rain likely centered on tomorrow night into Thursday night. Some areas of the Mid-Atlantic region can end up with five inches of rain or more by the time the weekend begins. The second big story is the likelihood for a hurricane this weekend in the Caribbean Sea. In fact, the tropical system still known officially as Invest 97L could become a major hurricane at some point while moving westward over the warm Caribbean Sea waters. At some point early next week, this system is likely to take a turn towards the north or northwest and it could threaten anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the US east coast - but those details will have to wait.
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It is now known officially as Invest 97L, but it soon could become “Matthew” and it is likely to head into the Caribbean Sea over the next few days and it will have to be monitored closely not only in that region, but also from the northern coast of South America to the Gulf of Mexico and eastern US. While currently this system is just an area of showers and thunderstorms, environmental conditions will become favorable for it to attain tropical depression status in the short term – and then potentially major hurricane status by the weekend in the Caribbean Sea.
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Tropical Storm Karl continues to churn to the west today in the central Atlantic Ocean and it could very well reach hurricane status by the early part of the weekend and be situated somewhere between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will be slowly pushing eastward to southeastern Canada at this time and this feature will become a crucial player in the eventual storm track of Karl. Latest computer model forecasts strongly suggest Karl will get influenced by the upper-level trough and driven to the northeast away from the US coastline; however, it still needs to be closely monitored as a small shift in the timing of weather systems can result in quite a different outcome.
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We have now entered the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and there are three different systems to monitor over the next several days. To begin, an impressive tropical wave has now achieved “tropical depression” status in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and all indications are that it will strengthen to tropical storm status in the next day or two. In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ian is moving northward and it appears to be no threat to the US mainland. Meanwhile, just offshore of the George/South Carolina border region, Tropical Storm Julia is moving very slowly and this poses a big problem in terms of rainfall for coastal Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of days. There is a chance that some of the moisture associated with “Julia” interacts with an eastward moving frontal system and enhances rainfall around here late in the weekend or early next week.
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The latest GOES-13 satellite image shows a widespread area of deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rains continuing over western Cuba where there has been significant flooding. Tropical Depression #9 is likely closing in on "tropical storm" status and it will be investigated this afternoon by NOAA hurricane hunters to better determine its actual current strength. All indications are that intensification will take place over the next couple of days as vertical wind shear over the system decreases. Heavy rain on the order of 6-12" is possible from this system across portions of central and northern Florida later this week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season is around the middle of September and tropical activity has certainly ramped up right on schedule. There are four different systems in the western part of the Atlantic Basin that bear watching over the next few days, an additional wave in the eastern Atlantic, and an impressive wave over the western part of Africa. The tropical system known last week as "99L" is now classified as a tropical depression (#9) and it could very well end Florida’s hurricane drought later this week. Another tropical depression (#8) is spinning towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could reach tropical storm status over the next few days. The strongest system right now is Hurricane Gaston and it is located out over the open Atlantic and should not have any direct impact on the US. Meanwhile, a fourth system that is currently unnamed and unnumbered is noticeably spinning east of the Bahamas - and it too bears watching. The wave over the west coast of Africa will be something to watch closely over the next 10 to 14 days or so.
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The tropical system still officially known as "99L" is currently located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. An area of showers and thunderstorms has increased in intensity and coverage during the past few hours, but it still appears to be separated from the low-level circulation center just off to its west. However, even though the system is currently disjointed, there are some factors that are favorable for intensification in the near term and this is reason to continue to closely monitor the situation; especially, for those in Florida and along the entire Gulf coast.
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The tropical system still officially known as 99L is currently located near the island of Hispaniola and it is still disorganized. The main areas of showers and thunderstorms are on the southern side of Hispaniola, but there is reason to believe the low-level circulation center is just to the north of the island (i.e., a disjointed system). There is mountainous terrain on Hispaniola and this will inhibit intensification of tropical system 99L in the short term; however, once passed this current obstacle, there are reasons to believe some intensification will take place. In fact, it is possible that a tropical storm (would be named Hermine) reaches Florida by late Sunday - perhaps as far south as the Florida Keys. After that, it could spill out into the Gulf of Mexico where additional development can take place - perhaps even to major hurricane status.
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Amazingly, the state of Florida has not had a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005. Hurricane Wilma was also the last major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) to strike US soil in what has turned out to be another amazing streak. Both of these streaks are unprecedented in the record-keeping era and there is a chance that one or both come to an end in the next week or so.
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Amazingly, the state of Florida has not had a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005. Hurricane Wilma was also the last major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) to strike US soil in what has turned out to be another amazing streak. As the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season approaches (mid-September), we now have quite an active scene with three different tropical systems. Tropical Depression Fiona is in a weakening state (at least for now) and it should have little or no impact on the US over the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Gaston is situated in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and it will likely strengthen significantly over the next few days as it heads in a general northwest fashion, but it is likely to never reach the US coastline before it curves towards the northern Atlantic. And then there is the third system - which is yet to be named - currently sitting a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. It is this system that has a good chance of intensification over the next few days (would become named Hermine), and it has a chance to end the hurricane drought in Florida by the early part of next week.
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