A potpourri of weather to talk about in today's posting. Earlier this week, I posted about the incredible cold coming to Asia and indeed it has arrived with temperatures of more than 50 degrees (F) below normal in an extensive area. The snow pack is deep, the cold air is dense, and it is now resulting in tremendous high pressure that is forecasted to reach as high as 31.47 inches (1066 millibars) later this weekend. This colder-than-normal pattern has persisted for weeks in that part of the world while we have enjoyed warmer-than-normal conditions here in North America – that is about to change.
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After a couple of warm days to end the week, a wintry blast will arrive in the Northeast US on Saturday night and it promises to be winter-like in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and Monday with well below normal temperatures, strong winds, and perhaps even some snow shower activity in the I-95 corridor. This weekend cold blast will set off the Great Lakes snow machine and there will be widespread accumulating snow as a result in areas just downstream of the water; especially, in higher elevation locations. In fact, the Great Lakes snows may develop explosively this weekend given the expectation of cold, Arctic air flowing over the still relatively warm waters - thundersnows could be the result. The chill sticks around here early next week and then it should ease somewhat by mid-week, but we may then have to deal with a storm system by Thanksgiving Day. Looking ahead, signs continue to point towards a more sustained colder weather pattern as we head through late November and into December.
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A blast of cold air will rush into the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and Sunday promises to be a wintry day for the region with winter-like chill in the 40's, strong winds and perhaps even some snow shower activity reaching close to or actually into the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. This weekend cold blast will turn on the Great Lakes snow machine resulting in the first widespread Great Lakes snow event of the season in higher-elevation locations just downstream from the water. This weekend blast of cold air will follow a couple of warm days around here with high temperatures on Friday afternoon soaring well into the 60’s and then returning to near 60 degrees for highs on Saturday ahead of the strong cold front that will be advancing rapidly towards us from the Great Lakes.
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While we’ve been enjoying warmer-than-normal weather in the US and Canada in recent weeks, much of Europe and Asia have suffered through sustained bitter cold. In fact, it is likely to get even worse for them later this week as some computer forecast models suggest temperatures could fall an astonishing 50 degrees below normal in Siberia - the coldest air yet this season. In addition to the cold, the month of November began with well above normal snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere with more snow than normal across both sides of the North Pole. All of this cold and snow around the Northern Hemisphere suggests it could indeed turn out to be quite interesting around here in the eastern US between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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September was well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region (PHL +4.4°, DC +5.0°, NYC +3.8°), October turned out above-normal as well (PHL +2.9°, DC +3.6°, NYC +1.0°); however, there are signs for a major temperature pattern flip during the middle and latter parts of November that will bring dramatic changes to the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. In fact, this expected upcoming pattern flip to colder that was discussed in detail in the recently posted Vencore Weather Winter Outlook, may very well stick around for awhile and lead us right into a colder-than-normal winter season in the Mid-Atlantic region. The month of December is likely to be a far cry from the unusually warm weather that we experienced a year ago and the period from Thanksgiving-to-Christmas could be very interesting indeed.
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Philadelphia officially broke a record yesterday as the airport reached 86 degrees which easily bested the old record of 80 degrees set back in 1947. In fact, there has been much record warmth during the past few days in the eastern states, but big changes are coming by the weekend. A strong cold front whips through the region tomorrow night and its passage will usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend and it’ll generally stay below-normal into the middle part of next week.
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Hurricane Matthew continues churning northwest through the Bahamas and towards the east coast of Florida. It has now been upgraded to a dangerous category 4 classification and should arrive in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral, Florida early Friday morning with an outside chance at reaching category 5 status before its arrival. The eye has become noticeably more visible in recent satellite images indicating strengthening is on-going and as Matthew moves over very warm Gulf stream waters, the central pressure could continue to drop, and it is possible category 5 status may be attained by early tomorrow. If indeed Matthew makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, it would end an unprecedented streak in the US without a major hurricane since Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005. Since its last encounter with a major hurricane, the population in Florida has grown by the millions and lots of that growth has been near the coast.
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Major Hurricane Matthew continues to be a serious threat for the region from Florida to North Carolina. The storm is currently headed northwest through the Bahama Island chain and towards the east-central coastal region of Florida. It could make landfall there by early Friday and has a shot at ending the on-going streak in the US without a major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). That unprecedented streak (actually 4000 days as of tomorrow) without a major hurricane strike in the US has persevered since October 2005 at which time Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida. Hurricane Matthew is the 14th Atlantic hurricane since 1950 to be a major hurricane for at least 120 consecutive hours.
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The center of Hurricane Matthew has passed over the western tip of Haiti and is now back out over water on its way towards the eastern tip of Cuba. Its brief encounter with land has obscured the eye from its quite distinct appearance earlier this morning. Some further slight weakening can take place later today and tonight as Matthew briefly encounters the land mass of eastern Cuba, but the overall environment is quite favorable for it to maintain “major” hurricane status during the next couple of days.
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Matthew continues to churn through the central Caribbean as a major hurricane (category 4) with its latest measured max sustained winds at 140 mph and central pressure of 941 millibars (27.29 inches). It is grinding northward at 6 mph, and unfortunately, this slow movement will result in an extended period of high winds and heavy rain for many areas. In fact, there is the threat for as much as 40 inches of rain during the next couple of days in Haiti where this is an especially dangerous situation.
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