No doubt this is a very complicated forecast in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next five days or so as we’ll experience a deep freeze which will be followed by a rather rapid thaw which will then be followed by another freeze. In addition, there will be multiple systems that can impact us with accumulating snow, ice and/or rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday night/early Thursday and it’ll be even colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to be confined to the 20’s for highs and early morning lows on Friday could be in record-breaking territory in many parts of the Northeast US. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision could lead to significant snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before an eventual late day changeover to plain rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll be colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to hold in the 20’s on both days and overnight lows by Friday morning could be record-breaking and bottom out in the single digits near New York City, near 10 degrees in the Philly metro region, and in the 10-15 degree range across DC. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air could lead to significant snow and/or ice problems in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before a late day or nighttime changeover to plain rain.
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This December is a far cry from last year which ended up warmer-than-normal virtually throughout the entire nation. It has been colder-than-normal so far this year throughout a good part of the nation and another significant Arctic blast will cross the northern US this week - reaching the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday night and Thursday – and this blast will be colder than the last one.
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The coldest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region is keeping temperatures confined to the 30’s which is well below normal for this time of year and strong NW winds are creating even lower wind chills. This air mass is apparently just a teaser. There are signs that another Arctic blast will occur later next week and it looks even colder – maybe significantly so. In addition to the Arctic air masses, there are likely to be two or three snow threats next week. The first system could bring some snow to areas north of the PA/MD border late Sunday/Sunday night on the order of a coating to an inch or two and there can be some freezing rain involved with this eventThe second threat could bring some snow to the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday as the next Arctic cold front approaches. After that, there may be a third threat during the weekend of the 17th/18th as the late week Arctic blast begins to retreat.
The 12Z Euro 850 mb temperature anomaly loop from today through next Friday shows well the movement across the US of the next Arctic air outbreak. It arrives during the mid-to late week time period in this region and by Friday, the Northeast US could be very cold. More details in this afternoon’s video discussion.
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VENCORE WEATHER FEATURED ON WTKI RADIO; Paul Dorian, Vencore meteorologist, was interviewed on WTKI Radio in Huntsville, AL. Listen to the interview here.
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The flood gates appear to have opened up for multiple Arctic air masses to plunge from northwestern Canada/Alaska into the US over the next few weeks and this type of weather pattern will surely increase the odds for snow around here. By no means is there anything set in stone yet for the snow, but the unfolding weather pattern will be much more favorable compared to recent weeks. One Arctic blast is already being felt today across the northwest and north-central part of the country and will arrive here later tomorrow/tomorrow night. By Friday, temperatures will be confined to the 30’s for the afternoon highs, strong NW winds will produce even lower wind chill values, and there can be some snow shower activity. A second Arctic blast will drop out of Canada into the northern US early next week and it should arrive here during the middle of next week. Looking even farther ahead, there are signs for yet another (third) Arctic blast to follow as we progress into the second half of December.
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You probably want to get your Christmas lights up this weekend if you haven't done so already. The month of November ended on a warm (and wet) note in the Mid-Atlantic region and December is starting off slightly colder-than-normal, but big changes will take place by late next week. A widespread and very cold air mass is headed in Alaska this weekend where temperatures could plunge to 50 degrees below zero and then this very cold, dense Arctic air will dive into the western US early next week. After that, the Arctic air mass will spread to the south and east across much of the nation and reach the Mid-Atlantic region around Thursday and then we’ll likely be in a a struggle to pass the freezing mark on Friday.
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While we end November on a warm note here in the eastern US, there are changes unfolding across the Northern Hemisphere that will likely bring a widespread very cold air mass into the US next week. This cold air mass is first going to arrive in Alaska this upcoming weekend with some spots in that state plunging to 40 degrees below zero and way below normal for early December. After that, the cold air dives into the western US during the first half of next week and then it’ll likely blast into the eastern US late next week. In fact, by the time Saturday, December 10th rolls around, there may be colder-than-normal conditions all the way from Alaska to the southeastern US. Beyond that, it looks like this colder pattern will indeed have some staying power as we move deeper into the month of December.
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Two separate low pressure systems will bring significant rain and possible thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region over the next 48 hours and also to much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation where it has been quite dry in recent weeks. Atlanta, Georgia, for instance, has not had any measurable rain in 42 days - but that is all about to change. An eastward-moving frontal system that extends from a powerful storm over the North Plains will stall out in the eastern US over the next 12 hours or so and this frontal boundary zone will act as a conduit for copious amounts of moisture to ride along into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Deep South.
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