Our “January thaw” will continue into next week with temperatures generally running at above-normal levels, but this period will be accompanied by more rainfall. The next shot at rain comes late Friday into Friday night from moisture pushing to the northeast from the Southeast US. Following that, there are increasing signs for a major storm to head into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Southeast US during the late Sunday into Tuesday time period and it is likely to bring substantial rainfall to the area.
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It is not uncommon for a “break in the action” to occur in the northeast US during a given winter season. In fact, this extended period of warmer-than-normal weather often takes place right in the heart of the winter season during the middle or latter part of January and has become known as the “January thaw”. It looks like we are indeed in store this year for a “January thaw” with warmer-than-normal weather beginning around the middle of next week and lasting for perhaps a week or so. Beyond that, however, there are numerous signs (high-latitude blocking, MJO, stratospheric warming) that point to a return of a cold weather pattern for the northeast US – one that could last well into February.
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Our topsy-turvy temperature pattern will continue over the next several days here in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures on Thursday will climb to the highest levels of the week with 60+ degrees likely for highs in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but then a cold front slides through on Friday, Arctic high pressure builds to our north, and the weekend will turn out much colder. This same front will stall out nearby this weekend allowing for a couple of disturbances to ride along its boundary zone bringing us the chance for some snow and/or ice – depending on location. At this time, this early weekend event appears to be on the light-to-moderate side in terms of total precipitation amounts. Once the Arctic high pressure system pushes to the east early next week, much warmer weather will return to the Mid-Atlantic region and it could turn out to be the much coveted “January thaw” that we hope for every winter lasting several days. A colder pattern is likely to return later this month.
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While we’ll get noticeably milder on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region, building Arctic high pressure to our north at the end of the week will result in much colder conditions for the weekend. A frontal system will pass through the region on Friday and this will set off some drastic changes around here as we head into the weekend. To make matters worse, moisture will head our way from the south-central US and the combination of this moisture with strong surface Arctic high pressure to our north may result in a prolonged period of ice and/or snow.
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A significant blast of Arctic air will become quite noticeable tonight as the sun goes down, temperatures drop, and the winds pick up out of the northwest and it’ll stay colder-than-normal right into the early part of next week. In addition to the cold, accumulating snow is likely around here tomorrow night and early Friday from one low pressure system and then there will another system to monitor this weekend near the eastern seaboard. Although odds currently favor the worst effects of that weekend system to stay just to our south and east, there are reasons to believe that it could shift to the north and west somewhat from current model projections.
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If the first week of the new year is going to be any indication as to how active the weather will be in 2017 then we are going to have some very interesting times ahead of us. A major blast of Arctic air will arrive here later tomorrow and it’ll be very cold from tomorrow night through Monday in the I-95 corridor with temperatures having a hard time to break above the freezing mark for highs. In addition to this cold blast that is sweeping across the nation, there will be a couple of snow threats over the next several days. The first chance for snow in the I-95 corridor will come Thursday night/early Friday from an initial wave of low pressure that will intensify near the east coast and then the second and more impressive threat comes this weekend as another wave of low pressure will strengthen near east coast. Both of these threats currently favor areas to the south and east of the DC-Philly-to-NYC corridor for the best chance of accumulating snow; however, there is plenty of time for a slight shift to the N and W which would make it quite interesting around here.
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If the first week of the new year is going to be any indication as to how active the weather will be in 2017 then we are going to have some very interesting times ahead of us. A major blast of Arctic air will sweep across the country next week from the northwest to the southeast so that by the weekend of January 7th and 8th, it’ll be colder-than-normal virtually from coast-to-coast. This wall of cold will be preceded by a significant warm up in the eastern US during the first half of next week, but then a mid-to-late week cold frontal passage will begin to turn the temperature pattern upside down. In addition to the cold wave that will spread across the US next week, there are some early signs that a significant storm system could pull out of the southern states and head towards the eastern seaboard by the weekend of the 7th and 8th.
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Much colder air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a cold frontal system on Wednesday. Meanwhile, another cold front is headed towards the east coast and this will be supported by vigorous upper-level energy. As a result, low pressure is likely to form on Thursday just off the New Jersey coastline and then rapidly intensify as it moves northeastward reaching Maine’s east coast as a powerful storm by early Friday morning. This storm will become a major snow producer for interior sections of New England by tomorrow night where more than a foot can pile up in portions of (inland) Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire – coastal New England will receive far less (e.g., 1-3 inches around Boston).
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Temperatures today are well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a cold frontal passage will usher in noticeably colder air for tonight and Wednesday. Another surface cold front will arrive in the I-95 corridor on Thursday supported by vigorous upper-level energy and this will set the stage for a rapidly intensifying low pressure to form along the Northeast US coastline. This system is likely to generate some snow in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (north of the Mason-Dixon Line) and ultimately, lead to a major snowstorm for much of New England. Following the departure of the Thursday storm, quite cold air will flood the region on Friday riding in on strong NW winds and there can be some snow shower activity in the I-95 corridor from Philly-to-NYC. In the longer term, there will likely be another warm up in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week; however, signs are growing for widespread cold to develop across most of the US as we progress towards the second week of January.
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There have been several significant Arctic air outbreaks during the past few weeks that have chilled the central and eastern US, but the overall upper-level pattern of recent days will undergo changes in the near term. The general result of these upper atmosphere changes will be milder weather in the Mid-Atlantic region as we heads towards the new year. There are reasons to believe that this change; however, will just be a temporary break in the cold for us and a colder weather pattern will very likely return in a couple of weeks.
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