Two big weather stories going forward for the DC, Philly and New York City metro regions: (1) a heavy rain event is coming from later tomorrow night into Friday and it can be accompanied by strong thunderstorms and (2) an extended period of colder-than-normal weather from this weekend into the latter part of next week. This chilly stretch of weather could even result in accumulating snow in some of the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic region as well as in portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Strong low pressure will form tomorrow in the south-central states - aided by tremendous upper-level energy - and then push northward towards the eastern Great Lakes. Colder-than-normal air pushes in this weekend following the passage of a strong cold front and thanks to the formation of a classic “omega”-shaped blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, it will stay colder-than-normal for several days.
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There are two big weather stories for the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC going forward over the next week-to-ten days: (1) a heavy rain event is coming that will be centered on late Thursday night and Friday and (2) an extended period of colder-than-normal weather from this coming Saturday through Thursday of next week and this overall stretch could even result in accumulating snow in some of the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong low pressure will form at mid-week in the south-central US and head towards the Great Lakes region later Thursday. Rain should overspread the I-95 corridor from west-to-east late Thursday or Thursday night and continue into Friday resulting in a soaking rainfall for DC, Philly and NYC. Colder-than-normal air pushes in this weekend following the passage of a cold front and thanks to the formation of a classic “omega”-shaped blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, it will stay colder-than-normal around here for several days.
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Much warmer air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay quite warm right through Saturday. The peak of this current warm spell will take place on Saturday afternoon when temperatures could soar to around 90 degrees for highs in parts of the I-95 corridor. A back door cold front will then drop southward through the Northeast US late Saturday night and it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Sunday in New York City, Philly and DC. After a brief warm up on Monday, it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Tuesday following the passage of a strong cold front and there are additional cool air masses coming our way as we progress through the month of May.
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This weekend will turn noticeably cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be some rain to go along with that cool down; especially, south of the PA/MD border. We’ll then stay quite cool during the first half of next week, but a significant jump in temperatures is likely to arrive in the eastern US at the end of next week or during the following weekend. In fact, this surge of heat could result in the first 90 degree readings this year for parts of the Northeast US.
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Two strong upper-level waves of energy will bring rain events to the Mid-Atlantic region between tonight and Friday and each event can feature strong or severe thunderstorms. The first wave arrives this evening and will produce rain in the overnight hours in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two. On Tuesday, the steadiest and heaviest rain will be gone, but there can be an occasional shower and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two in the I-95 corridor as it turns noticeably windy and warmer.
The next event looks especially volatile and will feature a powerful low pressure system in the Northeast US and it'll impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from Thursday into Friday night. Rain is likely to be quite heavy on Thursday and Thursday night and there can be some severe thunderstorm activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and very windy around here on Friday with additional rain showers likely. Accumulating snow is likely on Friday in the Ohio Valley and also in the higher elevation locations of western NY, western PA, western MD, West Virginia, and the Smoky Mountains of the Tennessee Valley. One final note, grounds are now pretty well saturated after the recent heavy rain event and this will raise concerns for localized flooding during each of the this week’s rain events.
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The next week to ten days will feature numerous strong upper-level waves of energy traveling from the eastern Pacific Ocean all way across to the northeastern US on a fairly regular basis averaging every few days or so. Today's tranquil weather in the Mid-Atlantic region will soon give way to a major rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor that could result in more than two inches of rain by early Saturday in some spots. This active weather pattern will not only bring soaking rain to the Mid-Atlantic as we close out this current work week, but there will be another chance for significant rain early next week and then yet another chance late next week. In addition to the heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic, this active pattern will bring substantial springtime snowfall to interior upstate New York and New England as well as across the Colorado Rockies in the western US. Severe weather will also be a major consequence of this energetic weather pattern with numerous threats coming to the Midwest, south-central, and southeastern US.
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Today's soaking rain and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region appears to be just the opening round in what is looking like a very active weather pattern for much of the nation in the foreseeable future. The next ten days or so will feature wave-after-wave traveling across the country in a general west-to-east fashion and each one can produce snow over the Rockies and in New England, severe weather in the central and southern states, and significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, its been somewhat dry in recent weeks in much of the south-central and eastern US and those are the regions that are most likely to get pounded with significant rainfall in this unfolding active weather pattern.
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Winter will not go away easily. After another cold, dry day on Friday, attention will turn to the next system that could bring some snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region between tomorrow night and early Sunday morning. Beyond that, there will be some modifications in temperatures during the early part of next week, but then another significantly colder-than-normal air mass reaches us by the middle of next week.
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All signs continue to point to a major storm roaring up the east coast Monday night and Tuesday and it should result in a substantial snowfall for the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. The “sweet spot” for heaviest snowfall amounts could end up being just to the north and west of Route I-95 where more than a foot can fall in the suburbs of the big cities. Mixing with rain or ice can become an issue to the areas just south and east of Route I-95 and there will be a sharp drop off in snowfall totals from that narrow zone to the coastline, but odds favor primarily snow in and to the north and west of the big cities. In addition to the heavy precipitation, winds will become a problem with this powerful coastal storm and power outages are even a possibility in areas with heavy, wet snow accumulations and strong wind gusts. While the brunt of the storm will be Monday night and Tuesday morning in terms of heaviest snow, there will be enough instability in the upper-levels of the atmosphere that some “wrap around” snow is quite likely later Tuesday and Wednesday that can add some accumulations to the totals. It stays very cold following the storm on Wednesday and Thursday as well and, believe it or not, there could be another threat of snow for next weekend.
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All signs continue to point to a major storm along the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Tuesday and it could result in a substantial snowfall for parts the I-95 corridor. This storm looks like it will have the potential to produce 1-2 feet of snow, but exactly where that heaviest snowfall sets up is still in question as the storm track could be anywhere from just inland to just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline - and this difference can be crucial to the I-95 corridor. The end result is that there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm – perhaps setting up from right along Route I-95 to the coast. By the way, the last great snowstorm during the month of March for the Mid-Atlantic region was the so-called "Storm of the Century" in March 1993.
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