Tropical Storm Nate is likely to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and head towards the Louisiana/Mississippi southern border region. It is likely to make landfall in that part of the northern Gulf coast on Saturday night as a category 1 or 2 status hurricane. After landfall, Nate is likely to turn to the northeast and take an inland track through the eastern states on Sunday night and Monday. This expected path is likely to result in significant rainfall for much of the interior eastern US including the Mid-Atlantic region where it has been very dry in recent weeks.
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Tropical Storm Nate is now skirting the coastline of Nicaragua and is likely to continue on a northwest track and into the central Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. Nate could very well intensify into hurricane status by late Saturday over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico and then continue northward right towards the Louisiana/Mississippi border region by early Sunday. After that, Nate is likely to take a turn to the northeast and move through the Tennessee Valley on Monday and into the interior part of the Mid-Atlantic region. This potential path would likely bring some significant rainfall to much of the eastern US early next week which is welcome news for the area considering the dry weather pattern of the past few weeks.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season has undergone a relatively quiet spell in recent days, but that is about to come to an end. An area of showers and thunderstorms has become better organized over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and it is now officially known as “Tropical Depression 16”. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for this to become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours or so and, if so, it would become named “Nate” by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. By early in the weekend, we could be dealing with a hurricane somewhere over the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico and it could approach the panhandle of Florida by late in the weekend. After that, there are signs that this tropical system will push northeastward and ride up through the eastern states early next week on an inland track.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season has undergone a relatively quiet spell in recent days, but there are signs that this break will end shortly. An area of showers and thunderstorms has now formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and environmental conditions are likely to become quite favorable over the next few days for this to become a tropical depression. In fact, by later in the weekend, we could be dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere over the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there are signs that point to tropical moisture from this system to ride up northeastward through the eastern states on an inland track which would actually be welcome news in the Mid-Atlantic region which has been very dry in recent weeks.
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Typically, “African-wave” tropical systems wane during the latter stages of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and there are often more in the way of “home-grown” systems that form in more nearby locations to the US such as the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or western Atlantic region near the Southeast US coastline. In fact, there are strong signs that one tropical system may form near the eastern side of Florida over the next few days and then the medium-term (7-14 days out) is likely to feature a tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea/southern Gulf of Mexico which could eventually also have an impact on parts of the Southeast US.
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Hurricane Maria is now just to the east of the southeastern Bahamas and remains a “major” category 3 hurricane at 11 am with max sustained winds at 125 mph. Maria continues to move on a slow northwest track (8 mph) and will begin on a more northerly track this weekend. By the middle of next week, Maria will likely be situated to the east of the Carolinas; however, with very strong high pressure ridging firmly in place across southeastern Canada and the Northeast US, its movement beyond that point is still of concern for the east coast. A shift to the west in Maria's track is not out of the realm of possibility and that could present some problems to the US east coast from the Outer Banks to New Jersey.
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Hurricane Maria made landfall earlier today near Yabucoa Harbor in Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm and the eye has become filled in recent hours as it passed over the mountainous terrain on the island. Maria’s center will move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon in a somewhat weakened state and soon its current northwestward direction should become more northerly. Ultimately, Maria is likely to interact with the remains of Jose and it is still unclear as to how this will play out in terms of its chances of ever reaching the US east coast.
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The tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with Hurricanes Jose and Maria and Tropical Depression Lee. Hurricane Jose is now losing its tropical characteristics, but will still have an impact later tomorrow and tomorrow night on southern New England and eastern Long Island and perhaps as far to the southwest as western Long Island, New York City, and coastal New Jersey. Hurricane Maria is the biggest concern and has just reached “major” hurricane status. Maria is likely to strike Puerto Rico and the US Virgins Islands at mid-week as a "major" hurricane. Tropical Depression Lee is liable to fall apart in the next few days as it faces unfavorable environmental conditions in the far eastern Atlantic.
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Jose is currently classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 70 mph and a central pressure of 989 millibars. Jose is currently moving to the northwest at 9 mph and is likely to continue in this direction over the next couple of days. The latest satellite image of Jose is rather impressive with a “healthy-looking” symmetry to the storm and the possible beginnings of an eye formation. Hurricane status is likely to be regained shortly based on the latest observations and by the middle of next week, Jose could be a real concern for the northeast US; especially, across southern New England.
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Hurricane Jose has weakened to a category 1 storm with max sustained winds at 75 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb. It is currently just crawling along at 7 mph towards the southeast and may actually do a loop over the next several days in the central Atlantic. Beyond that, strong high pressure ridging is likely to form over the north Atlantic and this could halt the advance of Jose and it is not out of the question that Jose then starts creeping back towards the US east coast.
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