The Pacific Ocean is the planet’s biggest and its sea surface temperature (SST) pattern has a tremendous influence on all weather and climate around the world. In particular, El Nino conditions (warmer-than-normal) in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean can have a tremendous impact on winter weather in the US depending on its intensity and duration. In addition to duration and intensity, the specific location of an El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean can be quite crucial to wintertime temperatures and precipitation patterns in the US and current signs point to a weak-to-moderate strength El Nino that is “central-based” and this raises the prospects for a cold and snowy winter in the eastern US.
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Hurricane Lane weakened some in the past 24 hours as it has encountered increased southwesterly wind shear, but it remains a “major” category 4 storm as it slowly closes in on the Hawaiian Islands from the south. There is still a good chance that Hurricane Lane will not make actual landfall on any of the island chain; however, it'll still generate tremendous amounts of rainfall on parts of the state and some sections can experience hurricane conditions (e.g., Maui, Oahu). The fact that it is a slow mover and will come close to the island chain will allow for a prolonged period of torrential rainfall, especially, on windward facing slopes with up to two or three feet possible on the Big Island. This is very likely not going to be the last tropical threat for Hawaii this season as warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a developing El Nino in the central Pacific Ocean will likely aid in the formation of additional systems in coming days.
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In general, the Pacific Ocean has had more tropical activity this season compared to the Atlantic Basin and that trend should continue in the near term. Sea surface temperatures are playing a role in this trend and they are currently warmer-than-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii with a major hurricane headed in that direction. Fortunately, Hurricane Lane is likely to not make a direct hit on the islands and it should undergo steady weakening in coming days due to increasing amounts of wind shear. Nonetheless, Hurricane Lane will be a formidable storm for the state of Hawaii with potential significant impact in terms of rainfall; especially, on the Big Island. This is very likely not going to be the last tropical threat for Hawaii this season as warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a developing El Nino in the central Pacific Ocean will likely aid in the formation of additional systems in coming days.
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It has been a very wet summer in much of the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic and significant rain is likely to fall in many areas over the next several days. In fact, I think the chances are quite high that some spots see several inches of new rainfall between late today and the middle of next week and this will fall on already well-saturated grounds. A slow-moving cool frontal system will only grudgingly move across the area over the next 48 hours and this will result in numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning late today and lasting well into the upcoming weekend. This will make it the 10th weekend of the past 13 with some rainfall in at least parts of the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic. Another front will approach the area late Tuesday and it’ll be supported by a vigorous upper-level energy which is likely to result in more downpours come late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
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The Atlantic Basin has been relatively quiet in recent days in terms of tropical activity and it continues to look like this will be a less active tropical season compared to 2017. One of the main factors that led us to an outlook for a less active tropical season back in the springtime was the large patch of colder-than-normal water at that time in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This continues to exist and is quite likely an inhibiting factor for the formation or intensification of tropical activity in the tropical Atlantic and there are a couple other factors as well that are likely deterring activity. First, Saharan Desert (dry) air has persistently flowed westward from western Africa and into the tropical Atlantic and there are signs that this general pattern will continue into at least the near future. In addition, wind shear has been quite prominent across the tropical Atlantic in recent days and there are reasons to believe that this will continue to impede tropical activity in coming weeks. Don’t let your guard down; however, as all it takes is a direct hit by one storm to make it a memorable tropical season.
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A strong cool front is closing in on the I-95 corridor and strong-to-severe thunderstorms are popping over the past couple of hours. Daytime heating is contributing to increasing instability in the atmosphere and the coverage and intensity of shower and thunderstorm activity should increase through the afternoon hours. Any storm that forms over the next several hours can produce brief downpours, damaging gusty winds and even some hail. There is also the potential for some steadier and heavier rain this evening; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border.
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A low pressure system will form later today along the Delmarva/New Jersey coastal region and it will result in more downpours, gusty winds and perhaps even a period of steady, heavy rain for much of the I-95 corridor. In recent days, the axis of heaviest rainfall has extended from the Chesapeake Bay/DC metro region to central Pennsylvania, but this coastal low pressure system will bring some heavy rainfall to places farther east such as New Jersey and New York City.
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A very wet weather pattern will continue through mid-week in the Mid-Atlantic region as the combination of an upper-level trough over the Southeast US and a Bermuda High over the Atlantic pumps in deep moisture from the tropical Atlantic. There will be numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday night and given the tremendous amount of available moisture in the atmosphere, any shower or storm can produce heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time. The threat of localized flooding will remain high through mid-week as grounds are thoroughly saturated and several inches of additional rainfall are possible.
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A very wet pattern is unfolding for much of the eastern third of the nation and it’ll begin this weekend with the formation of a deep “negatively-tilted” upper-level trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley and a significant east coast storm. The upper-level system will slowly dig into the Southeast US over the next few days and ultimately contribute to an influx of moisture from the tropical Atlantic to the Mid-Atlantic. The strong coastal storm will generate heavy rain and strong winds later tomorrow and tomorrow night from the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor to coastal sections from Virginia-to-Long Island.
The coastal storm will then ride northward late tomorrow night into interior sections of New England where it will weaken later Sunday. The passage of the coastal storm; however, will not end the rain threat for the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, this significant coastal storm will just be the beginning of a very wet pattern in the eastern US for the next week or so with localized flooding potentially becoming a serious problem in many areas. By the time the latter part of next week rolls around, some spots in the eastern US may have seen the accumulation of at least half a foot of rain.
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A very wet pattern is unfolding for much of the eastern third of the nation and it’ll begin this weekend with the formation of a deep “negatively-tilted” upper-level trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This upper-level system will become a slow-mover and it will contribute over the next several days to a persistent flow of air into the Mid-Atlantic region from the tropical Atlantic. In addition, there will be the development of a strong surface low pressure system along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday which will likely bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to coastal sections from the Delmarva Peninsula-to-southern New England and perhaps even inland to the immediate I-95 corridor. By the time next weekend rolls around, several inches of rain could have fallen in much of the eastern US and localized flooding may become a serious concern.
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