Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2) and an eye is becoming more visible on satellite imagery. There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola – as wind shear in its general vicinity continues to decrease. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain and strong winds are likely in the already rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Hurricane Florence stalled out last month. While it appears the DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will not get a direct hit from the remains of Michael, there will be rain here on Thursday as the tropical system interacts with a strong cold front and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Quite cool and dry weather should follow in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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Any time the upper-level pattern evolves this time of year to one with very strong high pressure ridging centered over the NE US and SE Canada, it is time to monitor closely the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, a tropical system that is currently located in the western Caribbean Sea is likely to turn northward over the next couple days and head out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This system will perhaps reach Tropical Storm status as “Michael” within the next 24 hours and could threaten the Florida Panhandle as a hurricane by mid-week. Once landfall is made, this system may turn in a northeasterly direction and head up along the eastern seaboard spreading some unwanted heavy rainfall in the Carolinas and perhaps as far north as the Mid-Atlantic late in the week as it interacts with a frontal system.
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Talk about a nation divided…next week’s weather pattern will bring cold and snow to the western US and summer-like warmth to much of the east. Abnormally strong high pressure ridging will set up early next week centered over southeastern Canada and the Northeast US at the same time deep upper-level troughing takes up shop over the Rocky Mountains. As a result, temperatures will soar to the 80’s for highs next week in many parts of the east and will be confined to the 40’s across many sections out west where snow can even pile up in higher elevation locations. In the “battle-zone” region across the middle of the country, expect lots of rainfall over the next week or so.
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While we have passed the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season, the unfolding weather pattern will become favorable for more tropical activity in the eastern US during the next couple of weeks. Abnormally strong high pressure ridging will set up in coming days over the northeast US and southeastern Canada and this will allow for any potential tropical systems to “slide underneath” and head right towards the US. As a result, close attention should be paid to the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks as the Atlantic Basin tropical season drags on.
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Hurricane Rosa is now rated as a major (category 4) storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds at 145 mph and it will take a track in coming days right towards the southwestern US. While it’s winds will diminish significantly over the next few days as it very likely weakens to tropical storm status before reaching the Southwest US, its moisture field will remain largely intact and flooding rains could be the result in places like Arizona, southern California and Utah. Once Rosa arrives in the Southwest US, upper-level winds could very well carry its moisture field all the way across the US and into southeastern Canada by late next week.
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There has been plenty of unseasonably cold air across Canada in recent weeks and it looks like it will stay bottled up there for another several days. However, an overall pattern change may develop in coming days that involves a typhoon in the western Pacific and this could result in an impressive shot of cold air for the eastern US in about ten days to two weeks. Another tropical system that has formed in the eastern Pacific may have a significant impact on the Southwest US later next week.
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The remnants of Florence are centered over the Ohio Valley at mid-day and showers and thunderstorms are wrapping around the system and now impacting much of the Mid-Atlantic region. The threat for occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue in the I-95 corridor into the early part of tomorrow night when a frontal system will finally clear things out. Some of the rain will be heavy at times and some of the storms can be on the strong side. In fact, accelerating tropical systems of this nature sometimes generate tornadic-producing thunderstorms on its east side so that may also become a threat over the next 24-36 hours.
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Florence made landfall earlier today near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it has nearly grinded to a halt in recent hours with movement of only 3 mph to the west-southwest. This extremely slow movement of Florence will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than two feet of rain by the time all is said and done. Florence will push inland on Saturday and cross over the state of South Carolina in a weakened state and then begin a looping process on Sunday. This looping process will begin with an acceleration to the northwest by early next week and then an even more rapid movement to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this potential break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and during part of the month of October.
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Hurricane Florence continues to close in on the Carolina coastline and it will arrive in the NC/SC border region on Friday. Hurricane Florence has weakened during the past 24 hours and is now rated as a category 2 storm. The “slowing down” process of Florence has begun and the hurricane will grind nearly to a halt when it reaches the coastline and painfully crawl along to the southwest during the next couple of days.
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Hurricane Florence remains a category 4 (major) storm at mid-day and is currently moving northwest at 15 mph and is headed for the Carolina coastline. It should arrive near the North and South Carolina border region by early Friday where it will become influenced by blocking upper-level high pressure to the north. As a result, Florence will slow down dramatically and drift southwestward along the Carolina coastline. By the latter part of the weekend, Florence is likely to push inland over South Carolina or Georgia and then eventually loop back around to the east. We may have to deal with Florence until the middle of next week before it likely finally exits off the US east coast - perhaps off of New Jersey.
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