There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
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There is a much cooler air mass headed this way for Friday, Saturday and Sunday and it’ll be an active stretch of weather in the Mid-Atlantic as we make that transition from today’s heat and humidity to the weekend comfort. There is a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US as a surface low pressure trough will combine with high humidity and upper-level energy to destabilize the atmosphere later in the day. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue from Thursday/Thursday night into Friday as a strong cool front only slowly grinds its way through the region. Elsewhere, a minimal tropical storm (Chantal) has formed out over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no threat to the US; however, another system now near the Bahamas will have to be closely monitored in the coming week or so.
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It has been quite awhile since Barry reached tropical storm status over the Gulf of Mexico and then made landfall (briefly) as a hurricane in southern Louisiana – the first hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic Basin tropical season. In fact, there is currently no activity across the Atlantic Basin and none is likely over the next five days or so. There are signs, however, for activity to ramp up later this month and a more active pattern is looking more and more likely for September as well.
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An active weather pattern is setting up for the I-95 corridor for later today/early tonight extending all the way from the Carolinas to New England. There is an approaching vigorous wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere that will combine with diurnal heating and an advancing surface frontal boundary zone to destabilize the atmosphere over the next few hours and the result will likely be widespread showers and thunderstorms between about 2 and 9 PM in the I-95 corridor. Any storm that forms later today can produce torrential rainfall, flash flooding, and perhaps even damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead, a second frontal system will pass through the region early Friday and it’ll be followed by a much more comfortable air mass for the weekend with noticeably lower humidity levels.
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An active couple of days is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with scattered showers and thunderstorms today and more widespread showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow. There is a wave of upper-level energy setting off some powerful and slow-moving thunderstorms at mid-day along the Delaware River region of the Mid-Atlantic and an even stronger system will likely generate numerous showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow into tomorrow night. Any of these thunderstorms can produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding given the well-saturated grounds. Looking ahead, a beautiful air mass for August will arrive on Friday and provide comfortable weather conditions for the weekend.
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The Mid-Atlantic region has experienced generally rain-free conditions over the past several days, but heavy downpours are on the table for this afternoon and evening. A cool front is edging this way and the result will be slow-moving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Any slow-moving shower or storm can produce heavy rainfall amounts in a relatively short period of time and some of the storms can reach severe levels potentially producing damaging wind gusts. Given the still well-saturated grounds in the Mid-Atlantic region, any heavy rainfall can result in flash flooding conditions.
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The month of August begins this week and that is climatologically the period when the Atlantic Basin tropical season begins to ramp up with activity before typically reaching a peak in the middle of September. As if right on schedule, there are now multiple waves to monitor in the tropical Atlantic and some reasons to believe the atmosphere is becoming somewhat more favorable for the potential of tropical storm formation over the next week or so.
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The next three days will likely be the hottest stretch all summer long in the Mid-Atlantic region with urban areas along Route I-95 likely to make a run at the 100 degree mark (e.g., DCA, PHL, NYC) over the weekend. (Philly Airport hasn’t reached the 100 degree mark in the last 7 years). There is significant relief coming to the Midwest, NE US and Mid-Atlantic region next week and temperatures are quite likely going to be below-normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. The transition from the extreme heat and humidity expected this weekend to the cooler-than-normal conditions next week may very well come with strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Sunday night to early Tuesday time period with more torrential rainfall and potential damaging winds.
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There are two big weather stories unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days with the potential of severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall later today and tonight as the remains of Barry pass through the region and then the hottest weather of the summer so far in the Friday through Sunday time frame. An already very warm and moist atmosphere will get even more unstable later today and tonight as a trough of low pressure associated with what was once tropical cyclone Barry passes through leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Once this large tropical moisture field pushes away from the area, an atmospheric blow torch will setup and cause temperatures to soar on Friday in the I-95 corridor and it’ll stay excessively hot and humid this weekend with a run to 100 degrees possible during this stretch. There can be scattered showers and storms late Sunday with a weak frontal system and then more showers and storms on Monday associated with an even stronger frontal system which will usher in cooler air by next Tuesday. In fact, the remainder of July looks much more pleasant across the eastern half of the nation with normal-to-below normal temperatures and we could very well look back on this Friday-to-Sunday heat wave as the worst of the summer in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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There are two big weather stories unfolding in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week and the upcoming weekend with the potential of some strong-to-severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over the next couple days as the remains of Barry pass through the region and then the hottest weather of the summer so far in the Friday into Monday time frame. Showers and thunderstorms are possible from tonight into Thursday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor - any one of which can produce heavy rainfall. Once this large moisture field associated with Barry’s remnants pushes away from the area, an atmospheric blow torch will set up and cause temperatures to soar on Friday in the I-95 corridor and triple digits will be possible over the upcoming weekend. A strong cool front is likely to bring a round of showers and storms to the Mid-Atlantic late on Monday and more reasonable air is likely for the middle and latter parts of next week.
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