The month of October has seen above-normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere in recent years and there is likely to be some significant snow accumulations later this week in the region from the Colorado Rockies to the Northern Plains. This snow will be made possible by a tremendous shot of cold air for early October that will bring temperatures down to potential record low levels in the Rockies, central/northern Plains and Great Lakes during the next several days. Meanwhile, low pressure will intensify along a stalled out frontal boundary zone over the NW Atlantic over the next few days and it may impact the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from tomorrow into the end of the work week.
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Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon were in record territory for the date in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and, in some cases, October monthly high temperature records were threatened or broken. In the overnight hours, however, a dramatic change in air mass has taken place in areas north of the PA/MD border as a back-door cool front dropped north-to-south across the region. Temperatures this morning across the northeast US were as much as 25 degrees colder compared to yesterday morning at the same time and they are likely to go nowhere over the next few hours in places like Philly and NYC. The cool air sticks around into the weekend and then it’ll turn a bit warmer early next week and that warm up could be associated with a significant rain event in the I-95 corridor.
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It wasn’t that long ago that there was a fear in Montana’s Glacier National Park (GNP) that the Jackson Glacier was going to disappear in coming years, but that sentiment has changed dramatically recently largely due to extensive cold and snow in the latest winters. In fact, the Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade. As recently as September 2018, there were posted signs within the park warning that GNP’s glaciers were expected to disappear completely by 2020, but these have been removed due to the recent change in sentiment on this warning. If this weekend’s snowstorm is any indication, the recent cold and snowy weather pattern across Montana in recent winters may certainly be an on-going phenomenon.
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In this the climatological peak time of the year for the Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are three systems now on the scene. The most important tropical system in terms of immediate impact is Tropical Storm Imelda which is right near the southeast coastline of Texas. It is likely to produce some tremendous amounts of rainfall over the next few days with 20+ inches on the table. A second system, Hurricane Humberto, continues to slowly pull away from the US east coast now with category 2 status and it could climb to “major” (category 3+) hurricane status within a day or two out over the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, a third system is pushing northwest in the central Atlantic and it will continue to slowly intensify in coming days likely requiring it to become a named storm.
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Here we go again…another slow moving tropical system will impact the Bahamas and Florida over the next couple of days in what is a very active looking tropical scene. There are numerous systems of interest right now across the Atlantic Basin which is not too unusual given the time of year which is the climatological peak period of the tropical season. In addition to the system over the Bahamas, there is a batch of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that may organize in coming days and two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic. Furthermore, multiple systems over the continent of Africa – the breeding grounds for the Atlantic Basin – assure us that it’ll remain active as we progress through the month of September.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around September 10th and it is adhering to history with not one, not two, but three different systems lined up in the tropical Atlantic and additional waves lurk over the Africa continent. The first wave is likely to move through the Florida Straits or over South Florida this weekend and it could strengthen into a tropical storm. Regardless of development, this system is liable to produce heavy rain and gusty winds in the Bahamas and Florida in coming days. The next system out in the central Atlantic is facing long odds of survival as it will encounter unfavorable wind shear in the near term. The third wave is currently far out in the eastern Atlantic and it poses a potential longer-term threat to the Bahamas, Florida and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico region as it will slowly trek across the tropical Atlantic in coming days and ultimately, it should find favorable atmospheric conditions for intensification.
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The eye of Hurricane Dorian passed over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, earlier today which makes it the the first (and only) landfall by this storm on the US mainland. It made landfall on the Outer Banks as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 90 mph and is the first landfall by a hurricane in North Carolina since Arthur in 2014. The storm has begun an acceleration to the northeast in recent hours as it is increasingly being influenced by an approaching upper-level trough. There is still some impact being felt in coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England where heavy rain bands are rotating around Hurricane Dorian.
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Hurricane Dorian has regained some strength in the overnight hours and has been re-classified as a “major” category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. It is moving slowly to the NNE at 8 mph and is currently just off the coast of South Carolina. There will be a major impact over the next 24 hours by Hurricane Dorian in the coastal Carolinas in places like Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. By mid-day Friday, Hurricane Dorian will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it will become increasingly influenced by an advancing upper-level trough over the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will accelerate to the northeast on Friday and pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic, but some impacts are likely that will in many ways resemble a “nor’easter” with the greatest impacts along coastal sections. Looking ahead, by no means does it look like the Atlantic Basin tropical season will slow down with the departure of Hurricane Dorian as numerous tropical waves are lining up over the continent of Africa.
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Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm at midday and it has picked up a bit of forward speed now moving NNW at 9 mph with 105 mph maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 964 millibars. Gusty squalls are rotating around Hurricane Dorian and impacting much of the coastal region in northeastern Florida as well as coastal sections of Georgia, South and North Carolina. Hurricane Dorian is likely to at least maintain its category 2 strength as it moves closer to the Carolina coastline and it very well could undergo some intensification as it heads over warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and leaves “upwelling-induced” cooler water behind. By early Friday, Hurricane Dorian will move to a position over the Outer Banks (NC) and will become increasingly influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This upper-level feature will cause it to accelerate to the northeast passing well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, but important impacts are still on the table for coastal sections.
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Hurricane Dorian has finally resumed some movement today as the latest measurements have it moving to the northwest at 2 mph after being stationary for nearly 24 hours. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed. It’ll then close in on the Carolina coastline by Thursday where it is not out of the question that it makes a landfall somewhere on its way to the Outer Banks (North Carolina). After that, Hurricane Dorian will likely pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline from Thursday night into Friday with its greatest impact limited to coastal sections.
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