The first seven days of November have averaged more than 2.6ºC colder-than-normal across the nation and there is another very impressive cold air outbreak on the way for the eastern two-thirds. The first blast of much colder-than-normal air arrived in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the overnight hours and tonight will be the coldest so far this season. The next shot of Arctic air is already building up in Canada and it will reach the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later in the weekend, cross the Great Lakes on Monday, and then into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Tuesday. This blast of Arctic air will not only spread out across a larger portion of the country compared to the initial shot, but it will be even colder. In fact, numerous daily low temperature records are likely to be set next week across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there will likely be many sites recording their lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season.
Read More
The first five days of November have been colder-than-normal across a large part of the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least the middle part of the month. The next blast of cold air will reach the eastern states in the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame and then another shot comes by the early-to-middle parts of next week. Rain will accompany the arrival of the first cold frontal system later tomorrow into tomorrow night and it can even end as some snowflakes in parts of the I-95 corridor. Accumulating snow is likely late tomorrow night in far interior regions of the NE US from southwestern NY to northern Maine with the influx of the cold air. The Arctic frontal system arriving early-to-middle next week could feature the development of low pressure along its boundary zone and that puts rain-changing-to-snow on the table for the I-95 corridor.
Read More
November has started off much colder-than-normal across the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation into at least the middle part of the month. The cold start to the month follows a colder-than-normal October across the CONUS with more than twelve-hundred sites experiencing the lowest temperature ever in the month of October and, even-more impressive, many locations set their monthly record for the month as a whole. Multiple cold air outbreaks will ride along the polar jet stream during the next couple of weeks from the northern part of Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with the first one arriving in the Thursday night/Friday time frame and another next Monday. The late week cold blast will also feature rain-changing-to-snow in parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic and NE US and several inches can accumulate from western New York State to upstate Maine.
Read More
November has started off colder for the nation as a whole than all but two years (1991, 2002) going back to the late 1970’s and there won’t be much let up for the eastern 2/3rds through at least the middle part of the month. The powerful frontal passage late last week in the eastern US was part of an overall pattern change and the warmth of October has transitioned to the cold of November. There will likely be multiple cold air outbreaks over the next couple of weeks that ride along in the polar jet stream from central Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. After a bit of a warm up on Tuesday, it’ll turn cooler again at mid-week, but it is the late week when another impressive cold air blast will arrive. This next shot of cold air will drop southeastward from Canada and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the Thursday night/Friday time period. Another cold air outbreak is destined to reach the central and eastern US early next week. Both of these cold air outbreaks may present some snow possibilities for the Great Lakes and interior NE US and even to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Read More
Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that not only brings about a change in air mass for the short-term, but it can be associated with a longer-term pattern change and that looks to be the case with the powerful cold front that blasted through the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US last night. In this particular case, the frontal passage happened to occur right around the transition from October-to-November and the overall temperature pattern indeed looks to me like it’ll flip across the nation. In October, temperatures were generally above-normal in the eastern US and below-normal in the western can central states - and in some cases significantly so. All signs point to a flip of this pattern in November with colder-than-normal weather for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US/Midwest/Great Lakes and warmer-than-normal conditions in the western part of the country.
Read More
All the ingredients are coming together for a wild weather event tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US. Vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere associated with a powerful jet streak will combine with a low-level jet, very warm and humid air, and an intensifying surface low pressure system to generate a squall line along a slow-moving cold frontal boundary zone. This squall line should arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region of DC-to-Philly-to-NYC between 8 and 11 PM with torrential downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, 50-60 mph wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes.
Much colder air will arrive late tonight riding in on strong NW winds and a secondary push of colder air will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze from late Sunday night into early Monday morning in the I-95 corridor. In fact, the overall weather pattern will tend to change dramatically with tonight’s powerful cold frontal passage with colder-than-normal conditions likely in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US for much of the month of November following a warmer-than-normal October.
Read More
Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that is a longer-term pattern changer and tomorrow night, we will experience such a front in the Mid-Atlantic region and NE US. October has been generally warmer-than-normal in the eastern US with Philly, for example, at +3.2 ºF for the month so far and Washington’s Reagan National Airport at +4.4 ºF. The strong cold front that will pass through the region tomorrow night with downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and howling winds gusting up to 50 mph will usher in much cooler air for Friday and Saturday and then a secondary front on Sunday will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. A widespread freeze is likely on Sunday night for the first time this season in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and a colder-than-normal pattern is likely to continue for much of the month of November.
Read More
Record-breaking cold has spread from the western US into the central part of the nation and several sites have experienced their coldest temperatures ever for the month of October during the past couple of days. In fact, there is an unofficial report of nearly 35 degrees below zero in a remote observing station in northern Utah on Monday morning which would be the coldest temperature ever recorded in the Lower 48 during the month of October. Accumulating snow is accompanying the record cold in many places with several inches likely again today across much of Colorado and the region from Nebraska to Wisconsin is in store for some accumulations as well over the next couple of days.
The slow-moving strong cold front at the leading edge of the cold air mass will arrive in the I-95 corridor later Thursday night and it could be accompanied by torrential rain and possible strong thunderstorms. Once the cooler-than-normal air arrives in the eastern US, it looks like the below-normal temperature pattern will stick around for awhile as we head through the month of November.
Read More
Amarillo, Texas received 5.5 inches of snow on Thursday – the 6th earliest snow accumulation on record – and the much colder-than-normal weather is not over with yet in the south-central US. In fact, another cold air outbreak next week will likely bring much colder-than-normal air to a large part of the nation with records lows possible in the Rocky Mountain States and then central US. The colder-than-normal air mass will spread quite slowly to the eastern US with a possible arrival time to coincide with Halloween Night (Thursday night) or early Friday - and that means possible rain, wind and even strong thunderstorms for the “trick-or-treaters” in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with mild conditions just ahead of the strong cold front. Once the colder-than-normal pattern becomes established late next week, it looks like it could stick around awhile as we head through the beginning of the month of November.
Read More
While the eastern US is enjoying calm and seasonably cool conditions today under the domination of sprawling high pressure, there is a lot of weather to talk about across the rest of the nation. First, an unusual cold shot for late October has plunged all the way into the south-central US and it is going to be a contributing factor to accumulating snow later today in places like the Texas Panhandle. In addition, a strong tropical wave has become better organized during the past several hours over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico and it will make a move to the north in coming days. As a result, copious amounts of tropical moisture will merge with an eastward moving cold front over the next couple of days and the result will be significant rainfall from the Gulf of Mexico to the Ohio Valley.
Looking ahead, another cold air mass for this time of year will drop down from Canada early next week into the Rocky Mountain States and spread out across the central US. This next air mass will likely be cold enough to generate widespread record low temperatures during the early and middle parts of next week from the Rockies to the Plains and more accumulating snow is likely to fall in many of those areas.
Read More
