An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across the country and into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the next several days, but the lack of sustainable cold air is still problematic for snow lovers. A couple different waves of energy will consolidate in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and bring more rain followed by windy and colder conditions for Saturday night and Sunday. A “clipper” low pressure system will then drop southeastward on Sunday from central Canada to the Great Lakes and it could throw some snow showers into at least parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic/NE US from late Sunday night into early Monday. Finally, another system - perhaps the one with the most potential for accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor - is likely to form on Tuesday over the Ohio Valley as additional waves of upper-level energy come together. This system should be able to produce some rain and/or snow in the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday night. Another cold air outbreak will follow for the middle of next week, but, once again, it won’t last too long.
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When Alaska is colder-than-normal this time of year, chances are that the central and eastern US are warmer-than-normal mainly due to the typical wintertime distance between upper-level troughs and ridges across the Northern Hemisphere. Indeed, record lows temperatures of around 55 degrees below zero have struck Alaska at the same time places like Chicago, IL enjoyed some of the warmest weather ever around the Christmas holiday. Some of the cold air that has been bottled up over Alaska and Siberia in recent days may make a push into the central and eastern US in ten days or so.
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The weather looks quite favorable this weekend for traveling purposes from the Mid-Atlantic to the Upper Midwest, but a major storm will impact Florida and the rest of the Southeast US. A slow-moving and deep upper-level low pressure system will spin from the south-central US to the northern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend and the result will be a strong surface storm that will likely bring a widespread 2-3 inch rainfall to Florida and much of the Southeast US from Louisiana to the Carolinas.
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The low pressure system that resulted in a wintry mix of precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US over the past 24 hours or so will reach a position off the New England coastline by later today. This system will drag a cold front through the I-95 corridor by early tonight and winds will pick up as a moderately cold air mass moves into the area. Watch for icy spots later tonight as temperatures drop into the 20’s in most areas and there may still be some wet roadways. Another front will arrive in the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon and this front will represent the leading edge of an Arctic air mass. The arrival of the Arctic frontal system on Wednesday afternoon will be accompanied by strong wind gusts, scattered snow showers, and perhaps an isolated snow squall or two. It’ll stay windy tomorrow night and on Thursday and it’ll turn sharply colder with some of the lowest wind chill values and temperatures of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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One storm system continues to impact the Mid-Atlantic/NE US today and another one will impact the same area from Monday into Tuesday. The next storm will intensify over the Lower Mississippi Valley early Monday and it will take a track to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by Tuesday afternoon. As the storm intensifies on Monday, it will generate a west-to-east swath of precipitation that will push into the Mid-Atlantic region during the morning or mid-day hours on Monday. The air is likely to be cold enough for a period of snow and/or ice at the onset and there are likely to be some accumulations before any changeover to rain; especially, from the northern and western suburbs of DC to areas near and north of the PA/MD border.
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There will be two storms to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US over the next few days with the first storm already impacting parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and another storm will impact the same area from Monday into Tuesday. The initial storm is going to be predominately a ‘plain’ rain event in the I-95 corridor and some of it will become heavy at times, but there are a few pockets of freezing rain at this hour in areas well to the north and west of Route I-95. Patchy fog may form as well in the overnight hours as the in flux of milder air moves over still cold grounds. The departure of this initial storm will result in an influx of another cold air mass at the end of the weekend and this could set the stage for some snow and/or ice on Monday at the onset of the next storm; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border.
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A strong cold front is pushing across the Upper Midwest and it is the leading edge of some very cold air for this time of year (Minneapolis, for example, to drop to five degrees below zero later tonight). This frontal system will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing from the southwest to the northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be moving to the northeast from the south-central US and it’ll ride up along the slowly advancing frontal boundary zone. As a result, precipitation will become enhanced behind the surface cold frontal system and this will lead to a rain-changing-to-snow scenario along the I-95 corridor from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulations are likely during this rain-to-snow event early Wednesday on the order of a coating to three inches and this should take place in the big cities as well.
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A strong cold front will push across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday and usher into these regions a bitter cold air mass for this time of year. This front will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing front the southwest-to-northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be pushing along the southwestern portion of the front system in the Deep South and this is likely produce a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary zone which could result in a rain-changing-to-accumulating snow scenario for the I-95 corridor from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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A strong cold front will push across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week and usher into these regions a bitterly cold air mass for this time of year. This frontal system will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing from southwest-to-northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be moving over the southwestern portion of the frontal system in the south-central US on Tuesday. This setup could produce a wave of low pressure that forms along the frontal boundary zone and perhaps result in a rain-changing-to-snow scenario along the I-95 corridor late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
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The snow pack across the nation is well above-normal for early December and it is actually at or near record high levels across all of North America. In addition, the first few days of December are colder-than-normal across the nation as a whole and this follows a colder-than-normal month of November for the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Looking ahead, multiple cold air outbreaks are destined to reach the central and eastern US from Canada right into at least the middle part of the month, but there will be some short-lived warmer-than-normal breaks as well.
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