An active weather pattern will produce a freezing rain threat in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Thursday, a heavy rain and flash flooding threat from Thursday night into early Friday, and then perhaps some accumulating snow from Saturday night into Sunday. A strong cold frontal passage in the overnight hours will result in a dramatic drop in temperatures from this afternoon’s well above normal levels to more winter-like conditions on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The same front will then push back to the north as a warm front late Thursday and pave the way for a strong low pressure system to generate some heavy rainfall around here from Thursday night into early Friday. Yet another low pressure system could generate some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming weekend.
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The month of February begins on Saturday and it’ll turn quite warm in the Mid-Atlantic region by the beginning of the work week and some records may be broken. In fact, it looks like it’ll become much warmer-than-normal in DC, Philly and NYC in the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and potentially into Thursday as well. Unfortunately, the warm up next week will come with numerous chances of rain as a slow-moving cold front becomes the focus area for multiple waves of low pressure.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next couple of days and two of these – one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream - are likely to interact by early Saturday to generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline. This low pressure system is then likely to intensify as it pushes to the northeast to a position well off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Saturday and it can throw some rain and/or snow into the I-95 corridor.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next few days and a couple of these are likely to interact and generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline on Saturday. The fact that there may be multiple waves competing for energy and that these are rather fast-moving systems may inhibit the storm from intensifying rapidly until after it pushes off the east coast thereby potentially limiting its impact on the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures are likely to borderline on Saturday with respect to precipitation type so if precipitation does develop, there would likely be a battle zone in the I-95 corridor between rain and snow. Most of these upper-level waves of energy are still way off in the distance so details on this threat won’t be ironed out until late this week. Looking ahead to next week, there are signs that some of the cold that has been bottled up over Alaska in recent days will finally “break loose” in early-to-mid February and head towards the central and eastern US.
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It could be worse….it could be snow although many might prefer that this time of year. A significant rain event is likely for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the Friday night/Saturday time period as a strong wave of energy moves into the Ohio Valley by the early part of the weekend. A wave of low pressure will initially form over the Ohio Valley by later tomorrow and then a secondary system will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. This secondary system will become the main player and it is likely to result in some soaking rainfall for DC, Philly, NYC and Boston. On the heels of the storm, windy and cold conditions will develop on Sunday and there can be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A strong wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will drop into the Ohio Valley by the early part of the weekend and it’ll play an important role in the likelihood of rain and snow in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Initially, a wave of low pressure at the surface will push into the Ohio Valley, but ultimately, a secondary system should form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Odds currently favor rain in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but a small change in the positioning of the upper level low to the south and east could result in a slightly colder solution for the big cities.
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Dew point temperatures have plunged in the last 24 hours as a cold and very dry Arctic air mass takes hold in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will set the stage for a wintry mess on Saturday to include snow, sleet, freezing rain and some accumulations. This Arctic air mass is being anchored by strong high pressure building into the southeastern part of Canada and it will be very reluctant to give up its ground on Saturday as precipitation moves in from the Ohio Valley. As a result, temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing on Saturday; especially, in the northern and western suburbs along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this will likely result in an extended period of frozen precipitation.
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Watch the dew points over the next 24 hours or so as they will plummet as a cold and very dry Arctic air mass pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on strong NW winds that can gust to 50 mph. This incoming air mass will be anchored by strong high pressure centered over the southeastern part of Canada from Friday into Saturday and it will set the stage for an extended period of frozen precipitation on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will only be able to reach the low-to-mid 30’s for highs on Friday afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…some 20 degrees lower than yesterday. On Saturday, low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Lakes and precipitation will slide eastward from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Given the cold and very dry air mass in place on Saturday morning, there is likely to be an extended period of frozen precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region with accumulations of snow and ice likely at the onset of this event.
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Temperatures are climbing into the 50’s today in the I-95 corridor which is well above-normal for this time of year, but a strong frontal passage early tomorrow will usher in a much colder air mass for the end of the work week. The much colder air will ride into the region on strong NW winds that can gust to 50 mph at times. Strong high pressure will build into southeastern Canada on Friday and high temperatures in the I-95 corridor will be some 20 degrees lower compared to this afternoon’s readings. On Saturday, low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to the central Great Lakes and precipitation will move east into our area. Given the cold, dry air mass in place on Saturday, there is likely to be a period of frozen precipitation at the onset in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with some accumulations likely.
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Temperatures will climb back into the 50’s on Wednesday in the I-95 corridor which is well above-normal for this time of year, but a strong frontal passage early Thursday will usher in a big change for the end of the week. Arctic air will flood the region later Thursday and Thursday night riding in on strong NW winds which can gust past 40 mph. As a strong cold high pressure system builds into southeastern Canada on Friday, temperatures in the I-95 corridor will struggle to reach the middle 30’s. The influx of an Arctic air mass anchored by strong high pressure to the north will set the stage for a wintry mess on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region that is likely to include some accumulating snow; especially, north of the PA/MD border. This late week blast of Arctic air does not look like it will be an isolated event as there will likely be numerous cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US in coming weeks.
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