It’ll stay relatively quiet this afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region with nothing more than some light rain or drizzle at times to go along with mild conditions for the latter part of February. The weather story will be quite different, however, from late tonight into the day on Thursday. A very energetic weather situation is evolving for late tonight as a strong cold front will come barreling through the Mid-Atlantic region likely with brief downpours, gusty winds and perhaps a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms. It’ll turn much colder early tomorrow with stiff NW winds and these winds will actually intensify later Thursday as low pressure intensifies dramatically over the Northeast US with gusts possible to 50 mph. This incoming colder air mass will be reinforced by the early part of the weekend leading to below-normal conditions right through the upcoming weekend.
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There will be mild conditions and occasional rain or drizzle in the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, tonight and on Wednesday along with patchy, dense fog at times; especially, in the overnight hours. A much more energetic weather situation is evolving for tomorrow night as a strong cold front will come barreling through the Mid-Atlantic with possible downpours and perhaps even some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. It’ll turn very windy and much colder following the frontal passage late Wednesday night and Thursday with NW wind gusts possible to 50 mph. The colder-than-normal air conditions that develop on Thursday will stick around right through Sunday as a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive by the early part of the weekend.
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It has turned colder today across the Mid-Atlantic region and an even colder air mass will push in for tomorrow and Friday. At the same time, a large batch of moisture will push northeastward on Thursday and the combination of the fresh, cold air and moisture should lead to a significant snow event from southern Virginia-to-North Carolina-to-upstate South Carolina. As has been the case for much of the winter season, the corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will very likely escape without any appreciable snowfall, but there are some signs for more sustained cold and perhaps a better chance for snow as February winds down and March gets underway.
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It goes without saying that this winter has been very frustrating for snow lovers in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as there just hasn’t been the right combination of cold and moisture to result in significant snowfall. A strong cold frontal passage at mid-week will indeed usher in a cold air mass fully capable of producing snow in the Mid-Atlantic region as long as moisture becomes available. In fact, there will be plenty of moisture meandering across the southern US over the next couple of days and it looks like some of this will northeastward into the Carolinas and as far north as southern Virginia at the same time this upcoming cold air mass becomes firmly established. The result may be a significant snow event from southern Virginia to upstate South Carolina with half a foot possible in North Carolina and – as has been the case for much of the winter – snow lovers from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will be looking with envy from the outside. Longer term, there are some signs of hope for cold and snow in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor, but we have had false promises already this winter and time is beginning to run short.
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An Arctic front has pushed through the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest at mid-day and temperatures have plunged to below zero in many locations. In addition, winds are quite strong in these same areas resulting in dangerous wind chill values as low as 30 degrees below zero. This Arctic air outbreak will continue to push to the south and east over the next 24 hours and will bring some of the coldest readings yet this season to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by the early part of the weekend. As has been the case for much of the winter, the cold air will be rather short-lived and temperatures will ease noticeably by Sunday afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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An active weather pattern will result in freezing rain for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during the next 12-24 hours and heavy rainfall is likely from later tomorrow into early Friday with the potential of flash flooding. A strong cold frontal passage last night has resulted in a dramatic drop in temperatures from yesterday’s unseasonably mild conditions and they will drop quite close to the freezing mark in several of the northern and western suburbs along the I-95 corridor. Meanwhile, another batch of rain will arrive here from the Tennessee Valley and this can result in freezing on some surfaces in these normally colder locations. This same front will push back to the north as a warm front on Thursday and pave the way for a strong low pressure system to generate heavy rainfall from later tomorrow into early Friday.
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An active weather pattern will produce a freezing rain threat in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Thursday, a heavy rain and flash flooding threat from Thursday night into early Friday, and then perhaps some accumulating snow from Saturday night into Sunday. A strong cold frontal passage in the overnight hours will result in a dramatic drop in temperatures from this afternoon’s well above normal levels to more winter-like conditions on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The same front will then push back to the north as a warm front late Thursday and pave the way for a strong low pressure system to generate some heavy rainfall around here from Thursday night into early Friday. Yet another low pressure system could generate some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming weekend.
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The month of February begins on Saturday and it’ll turn quite warm in the Mid-Atlantic region by the beginning of the work week and some records may be broken. In fact, it looks like it’ll become much warmer-than-normal in DC, Philly and NYC in the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and potentially into Thursday as well. Unfortunately, the warm up next week will come with numerous chances of rain as a slow-moving cold front becomes the focus area for multiple waves of low pressure.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next couple of days and two of these – one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream - are likely to interact by early Saturday to generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline. This low pressure system is then likely to intensify as it pushes to the northeast to a position well off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Saturday and it can throw some rain and/or snow into the I-95 corridor.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next few days and a couple of these are likely to interact and generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline on Saturday. The fact that there may be multiple waves competing for energy and that these are rather fast-moving systems may inhibit the storm from intensifying rapidly until after it pushes off the east coast thereby potentially limiting its impact on the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures are likely to borderline on Saturday with respect to precipitation type so if precipitation does develop, there would likely be a battle zone in the I-95 corridor between rain and snow. Most of these upper-level waves of energy are still way off in the distance so details on this threat won’t be ironed out until late this week. Looking ahead to next week, there are signs that some of the cold that has been bottled up over Alaska in recent days will finally “break loose” in early-to-mid February and head towards the central and eastern US.
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