A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Friday and it’ll feature some quite cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall from Texas to the Carolinas will intensify after it moves into the western Atlantic. While this storm will be situated well off the east coast by later Friday, there can be an inverted trough of low pressure (aka “norlun” trough) extending from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic region which can also contribute to some instability in the atmosphere. The combination of the “clipper” system and the inverted trough is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers on Friday and Friday night and we’ll have to closely monitor the situation to see if any heavier bands of precipitation develop; especially, across places like eastern PA and NJ.
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An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms has developed across eastern Ohio and West Virginia associated with a cold frontal system and they’ll advance to the east over the next few hours. By later this evening, brief downpours will be possible in the I-95 corridor region and there can be an embedded strong thunderstorm or two as well. High pressure will take over for much of Wednesday and Thursday, but then a strong “clipper” system will create instability in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Friday and Friday night with the threat of rain and/or snow showers.
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A strong wave of energy is sitting off the coast of southern California at mid-day Monday and it’ll push eastward across northern Mexico and then into Texas by mid-week. This upper-level system will help to spawn the development of a strong surface low pressure system in Texas by early Wednesday and this storm will spread significant rainfall to the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas in the Wednesday/Thursday time period. By late Thursday, the southern low will push towards the Carolina coastline at the same time a northern stream wave of energy drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. This two upper-level features will likely phase together at the end of the week, but it’s a little too early to tell the exact timing and placement of the phase which will have an impact as to how far north and west the southern storm’s precipitation shield can extend. Temperatures are likely to be borderline in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US at the end of the week with respect to rain versus snow; however, colder air will be sitting just to the northwest and it certainly can feed in making this an unfolding scenario to closely monitor in coming days.
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The weekend will turn out to be quite cold for this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but a warming trend will begin on Sunday across the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a strong wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will crash into California and this will become one key player in the eastern half of the nation by the middle of next week. The combination of warmer and increasingly humid air and strong energy aloft may very well result in a major rain event next week from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern US.
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It’ll stay relatively quiet this afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region with nothing more than some light rain or drizzle at times to go along with mild conditions for the latter part of February. The weather story will be quite different, however, from late tonight into the day on Thursday. A very energetic weather situation is evolving for late tonight as a strong cold front will come barreling through the Mid-Atlantic region likely with brief downpours, gusty winds and perhaps a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms. It’ll turn much colder early tomorrow with stiff NW winds and these winds will actually intensify later Thursday as low pressure intensifies dramatically over the Northeast US with gusts possible to 50 mph. This incoming colder air mass will be reinforced by the early part of the weekend leading to below-normal conditions right through the upcoming weekend.
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There will be mild conditions and occasional rain or drizzle in the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, tonight and on Wednesday along with patchy, dense fog at times; especially, in the overnight hours. A much more energetic weather situation is evolving for tomorrow night as a strong cold front will come barreling through the Mid-Atlantic with possible downpours and perhaps even some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. It’ll turn very windy and much colder following the frontal passage late Wednesday night and Thursday with NW wind gusts possible to 50 mph. The colder-than-normal air conditions that develop on Thursday will stick around right through Sunday as a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive by the early part of the weekend.
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It has turned colder today across the Mid-Atlantic region and an even colder air mass will push in for tomorrow and Friday. At the same time, a large batch of moisture will push northeastward on Thursday and the combination of the fresh, cold air and moisture should lead to a significant snow event from southern Virginia-to-North Carolina-to-upstate South Carolina. As has been the case for much of the winter season, the corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will very likely escape without any appreciable snowfall, but there are some signs for more sustained cold and perhaps a better chance for snow as February winds down and March gets underway.
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It goes without saying that this winter has been very frustrating for snow lovers in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as there just hasn’t been the right combination of cold and moisture to result in significant snowfall. A strong cold frontal passage at mid-week will indeed usher in a cold air mass fully capable of producing snow in the Mid-Atlantic region as long as moisture becomes available. In fact, there will be plenty of moisture meandering across the southern US over the next couple of days and it looks like some of this will northeastward into the Carolinas and as far north as southern Virginia at the same time this upcoming cold air mass becomes firmly established. The result may be a significant snow event from southern Virginia to upstate South Carolina with half a foot possible in North Carolina and – as has been the case for much of the winter – snow lovers from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will be looking with envy from the outside. Longer term, there are some signs of hope for cold and snow in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor, but we have had false promises already this winter and time is beginning to run short.
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An Arctic front has pushed through the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest at mid-day and temperatures have plunged to below zero in many locations. In addition, winds are quite strong in these same areas resulting in dangerous wind chill values as low as 30 degrees below zero. This Arctic air outbreak will continue to push to the south and east over the next 24 hours and will bring some of the coldest readings yet this season to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by the early part of the weekend. As has been the case for much of the winter, the cold air will be rather short-lived and temperatures will ease noticeably by Sunday afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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An active weather pattern will result in freezing rain for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region during the next 12-24 hours and heavy rainfall is likely from later tomorrow into early Friday with the potential of flash flooding. A strong cold frontal passage last night has resulted in a dramatic drop in temperatures from yesterday’s unseasonably mild conditions and they will drop quite close to the freezing mark in several of the northern and western suburbs along the I-95 corridor. Meanwhile, another batch of rain will arrive here from the Tennessee Valley and this can result in freezing on some surfaces in these normally colder locations. This same front will push back to the north as a warm front on Thursday and pave the way for a strong low pressure system to generate heavy rainfall from later tomorrow into early Friday.
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