The east coast of the US will be an interesting area to monitor over the next week or so in terms of the weather as we’ll see a tropical system just east of Florida in the near term and then perhaps a coastal low by the end of next week which could impact the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure is now forming over the Florida Straits and it’ll intensify over the next 24-48 hours as it makes a move to the northeast over the relatively warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This system may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast in coming days and may play a role in the development of a coastal low by the end of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Another cold shot is coming to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US for the first half of the week and it could lead to more record or near record low temperatures and the possibility of frost during the next couple of late nights. As with the remarkable cold air outbreak this past weekend, attention should be paid to sensitive vegetation with this unusual late season chill. The end of the week will bring about a dramatic turnaround and summer-like warmth is quite likely on Friday as a “Bermuda-high” type pattern develops over the eastern US and Atlantic Ocean.
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A remarkable cold air outbreak is coming to the northeastern quadrant of the nation for Friday night and Saturday and it will be accompanied by a rain-changing-to-snow event for many interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This cold blast is likely to result in some of the coldest daily temperatures ever recorded both at the surface and in the upper atmosphere and, in some cases, monthly temperature records may be set. In addition, some spots might see their latest measurable snowfall in the Friday night/Saturday time period. Some interesting notes…in Philadelphia, there has not been a temperature in the 30’s on May 9th or later in more than fifty years (1966) and it could happen on both Saturday (9th) and Sunday (10th) mornings. In Buffalo, the predicted temperature of -40°C this weekend at the 500 millibar level would shatter the previous record of -35.7°C for the entire month of May. In Baltimore, there has not been a measurable snowfall in the month of May since 1872 and the latest on record there is May 9th (1923).
In addition to the cold and potential snow, winds will become an important factor as well on Saturday with gusts past 50 mph on the table in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this will raise the chance for scattered power outages. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern that has resulted in multiple cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US during the past several weeks is likely to finally break down during the third week of May, but we’ll have to endure some pain before we get to those expected warmer-than-normal conditions.
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Today is an unusually chilly day in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures far below-normal for the 6th of May aided by a low-level easterly flow of air and thick cloud cover. In fact, high temperatures today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region will be confined to levels rarely experienced for this time of year. Believe it or not, this air mass may pale in comparison to what is on the way for the early part of the weekend.
Quite an amazing outbreak of cold air will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Friday night and the cold frontal passage may actually be accompanied by a rain-changing-to-snow event – even into higher elevation suburban locations just to the north and west of I-95. Saturday will turn out to be a very windy and unusually cold day in much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation with temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC perhaps more than twenty degrees below normal. While Sunday, Mother’s Day, will remain colder-than-normal, the afternoon will become much more bearable when compared to Saturday as there should be far less in the way of wind and plenty of sunshine. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue into mid-May across the central and eastern US, but a pattern change to warmer looks like it’ll begin during the 3rd week of the month - and tropical season may not be far behind.
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The temperature reached 74 degrees yesterday at Philly Intl Airport, but a cold frontal passage ushered in considerably cooler air for today with mid-day readings still in the 50’s. It’ll turn even chillier on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of clouds around and occasional showers. In fact, some spots may experience some of the lowest maximum temperatures ever recorded for the 6th of May in this unusually cool air mass for this time of year. An even colder air mass is headed this way for the beginning of the Mother’s Day weekend and Saturday could turn out to be quite an amazing weather day in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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The contrast between this past weekend and next weekend will be quite remarkable in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. An unusually cold air mass for this time of year will drop into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by the early part of the upcoming Mother’s Day weekend and it will contrast markedly with the above-normal temperatures experienced this past Saturday and Sunday. In fact, the chill that is headed this way for the late week/weekend may very well result in near record lows across a wide region of the nation extending from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard and snow is even a possibility in the interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US will quite likely continue until at least the middle of the month May.
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Tropical moisture is flowing northward into the eastern US from the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic, and the Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical moisture is combining with a painfully slow-moving frontal system and a vigorous wave of energy in the upper atmosphere to fuel a widespread area of heavy rain that extends from Florida to the Northeast US. The heavier and steadier rain has moved into the DC metro region and should arrive in Philly this afternoon and New York City by this evening. The potential exists for as much as 1.5 - 3.0 inches of rain in much of the eastern US between now and mid-day Friday. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the heavy rainfall and the already pretty well saturated grounds. Winds will also be an important factor with this storm system as gusts could easily pass 50 mph in some spots; especially, near and along coastal regions - watch for power outages.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into the month of May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country is very active as we wind down the month of April and it has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one has dropped southeastward into the Mississippi Valley region from southwestern Canada. This wave of energy aloft and its corresponding surface low pressure system will move very slowly over the next 48 hours due to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere over the southern part of Canada. These slow-moving systems and a painfully slow-moving surface frontal boundary zone will combine with an influx of tropical moisture to produce a major rain event from tomorrow into early Friday in the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. Localized flash flooding is likely to become a serious concern during this upcoming event with 2-4 inches of rain on the table in many areas.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country as we close out the month of April is very active and has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one is on the way. This next powerful wave of energy aloft will dive southeast from southwestern Canada into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow afternoon and then slide into the Mid-Atlantic region by late Thursday. The combination of this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, a painfully slow-moving surface frontal system, and a strong flow of very humid air up along the east coast will likely result in a major rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night. Given the well saturated grounds from recent rainfall, this type of potential significant rain event could very well lead to localized flash flooding conditions and will have to be closely monitored.
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A very active weather pattern will likely continue across the eastern half of the nation into the early part of May in large part due to a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. These on-going cold air outbreaks are combining with increasingly warm and humid conditions across the southern US to help in the generation of storms and also has increased the chances for severe weather outbreaks; especially, across the southern states. In fact, tornadoes this year are running at above-normal levels and are the highest for the month of April since 2011. The next storm in a series of storms will impact the Mid-Atlantic region from today into late Friday and then another system arrives over the upcoming weekend and colder-than-normal conditions will persist through the period.
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