We are approaching the climatologically warmest time of the year for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes regions of the country and it looks the weather pattern will live up to those long-term averages. The hottest weather of the season so far will begin this weekend and continue through the middle of next week. The hottest days during this stretch for the I-95 corridor will likely turn out to be Sunday and Monday when temperatures should climb to the mid and upper 90’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC-Boston corridor.
Read More
Heavy rain bands are rotating around Tropical Storm Fay at this hour and extending northwestward into eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. There has already been a boat load of rain over the Delmarva Peninsula with several inches in some spots and flooding has been prevalent in some Delaware beach towns such as Bethany Beach. Tropical Storm Fay will continue to push in a general northerly direction over the next several hours though it could bobble around at times in slightly different directions. The storm’s center is likely to push through New Jersey from south-to-north later today and then continue northward tonight into the Hudson Valley region of New York State.
Read More
The main focus today is on a low pressure system over the coastal sections of North Carolina as it poses a threat for heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region. This system is likely to push to the northeast during the next several hours out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and then make a move in a more northerly direction likely reaching a position over the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula by early tomorrow. There is a good chance that when this system moves out over the ocean later today, it’ll intensify enough to become a “named” tropical storm (would be “Fay”). Whether or not it becomes a "named" storm, it has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic region along with quite gusty winds along coastal sections.
Read More
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to plague the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-day and this threat will continue into tonight. On Thursday, attention will turn to the Outer Banks region of North Carolina as this is where low pressure is likely to be located early in the day. This system is then likely to push to the northeast out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and then make a move northward reaching a position near the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula by early Friday. There is a chance when this system moves over the open waters of the western Atlantic, it’ll intensify enough to become a “named” tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Whether or not it becomes a "named" storm (it would be “Fay”), it has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic region along with gusty winds and strong rip currents in the western Atlantic Ocean. The departure of this coastal storm on Saturday will likely not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall into the first half of next week.
Read More
There was significant rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with as much as 4-8 inches just to the southeast of Washington, D.C. and grounds are very well-saturated in many spots. While there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity later today, it should not be nearly as widespread nor as intense as to what took place late yesterday. The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday and then attention will turn to the Southeast US as low pressure slowly pushes through the Carolinas and heads toward the western Atlantic Ocean. This tropical/sub-tropical low pressure system is likely to then take a turn to the northeast and ride up over or just to the east of the the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result could be some heavy rainfall on Friday - likely along and to the east of Route I-95 - and strong rip currents are likely to form in the ocean as well with gusty winds. The departure of this coastal low on Saturday won’t be the end of the wet weather pattern for the eastern states as an impressive upper-level trough is likely to develop by later in the weekend leading to more rainfall into the early part of next week.
Read More
An upper-level low continues to meander over the Northeast US and showers and thunderstorms will again “pin wheel” around this system during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms will reach strong-to-severe levels with highly unstable conditions given the cool air aloft combined with warm lower levels of the atmosphere. Any thunderstorm that forms today can include heavy downpours and perhaps small hail as the freezing level is rather low in this pattern. The upper-level low will finally slide to the southeast by tomorrow and this will reduce the chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Read More
Temperatures will spike on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region after a comfortably warm day on Friday and the sudden warm up will be accompanied by plenty of instability in the atmosphere. Multiple waves of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will shift eastward on Saturday from the Northern Plains across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In addition, there will be a frontal boundary zone extending all the way from the Northern Plains into the eastern Great Lakes and this too will help to create some instability. As a result, strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday afternoon and evening; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.
Read More
An unusually large and intense outbreak of dry, dusty air from northern Africa has crossed the Atlantic Ocean and is now turning skies brownish in the Caribbean Sea. There is a possibility that some of this dusty air mass makes it all the way into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic later this weekend after first moving over the southern US. This layer of dust is commonly referred to as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) which is a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert in northern Africa during the late spring, summer, and early fall and it can move westward over the tropical North Atlantic on a regular basis during the Atlantic Basin tropical season. SAL activity usually ramps up in mid-June and peaks in mid-August and sometimes the individual outbreaks can cover vast portions of the Atlantic Ocean and reach as far west as the central US and Central America.
The SAL has unique properties of dry air, strong winds and warmth that can have a significant inhibiting effect on the formation and/or intensification of Atlantic Basin tropical systems - at least on a temporary basis. In addition to its potential inhibiting effect on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, dusty air masses that travel over the Atlantic Ocean from Africa can actually have long term impacts on beaches in the Caribbean and soils in the Amazon. This particular outbreak of dry, dusty air is more widespread than usual - perhaps one of the most massive in several decades - and it likely formed during mid-June when strong winds from thunderstorms kicked up dust to an altitude of about 20,000 feet or so over the Sahel region of northern Africa.
Read More
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert in northern Africa during the late spring, summer, and early fall and it can move westward over the tropical North Atlantic on a regular basis during the Atlantic Basin tropical season. SAL activity usually ramps up in mid-June and peaks in mid-August and sometimes the individual outbreaks can cover vast portions of the Atlantic Ocean and reach as far west as the central US and Central America. The SAL has unique properties of dry air, strong winds and warmth that can have a significant inhibiting effect on the formation and/or intensification of Atlantic Basin tropical systems - at least on a temporary basis. This outbreak of dry, dusty air is more widespread than usual and appears to have formed when strong winds from thunderstorms kicked up the dust to an altitude of about 20,000 feet in mid-June over the Sahel region of northern Africa.
Read More
There is a surface low pressure system this morning near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and satellite imagery clearly shows an upper-level low spinning over the central part of the same state. This upper-level has resulted in substantial rainfall in recent days across the Carolinas and westward to West Virginia and southwestern Virginia and it is about to finally make a move to the next. As a result of this movement, showers will move into the DC metro region later today and likely edge into Philly later tonight or early Thursday and once the threat of rain arrives, it’ll likely stick around all the way into next week. In fact, another significant upper-level trough of low pressure is likely to push into the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/NE US by the middle of next week and this will more than likely continue the wet pattern that is unfolding for this part of the nation.
Read More
