It looks like September will end and October will begin with an unusually cold air mass in much of the central and eastern US as a deep upper-level trough forms overhead. There may be two different cold frontal systems that will produce a “step-down” to the colder-than-normal conditions with the first pushing through early in the week and the second around mid-week. Once established, it looks like the colder-than-normal conditions will last right into the first full weekend of October. On the tropical scene, the Atlantic Basin has actually begun a quiet period with no activity currently over the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. This quiet stretch is very likely only a temporary phenomenon as October will no doubt feature more tropical activity in these still quite warm water regions of the Atlantic Basin.
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It looks like the month of October will begin with quite an impressive cold air outbreak in the central and eastern US as a deep upper-level trough forms overhead. The strong surface cold front that will be at the leading edge of the cold air mass is likely to reach the east coast at mid-week and colder-than-normal conditions will last right into the first full weekend of October. On the tropical scene, it looks like the Atlantic Basin may actually have some quiet time – at on a temporary basis - after a very active stretch in the month of September.
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There is a never-ending attempt by nature to balance things out in the atmosphere. For example, air will move from high pressure areas to low-pressure areas in an attempt to equalize and the movement is what creates wind. Another example of nature’s ceaseless attempt to balance things out has to do with tropical cyclones around the world. These storms act to bring transfer some and moisture from the tropics to the colder and drier higher latitudes and Hurricane Teddy is going to be a great example of this and may actually result in accumulating snow for the southern part of Greenland later in the week.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic and that has now exhausted the list of hurricane names for the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. As a result, the Greek alphabet will be used from here on out with the next named system to become “Alpha” and this may be the tropical wave that has been meandering over the western Gulf of Mexico in recent days. The last time the Greek alphabet had to be used for the naming of tropical storms was the very active year of 2005. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy has intensified into a category 4 “major” storm over the central Atlantic and it will likely effect Bermuda late in the weekend and then it may have a direct impact on Nova Scotia, Canada as an unfolding blocking pattern in the atmosphere changes its course.
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While the remnants of Hurricane Sally produce heavy rainfall today from the Southeast US to the Mid-Atlantic, attention is shifting to two other tropical systems of concern. One tropical system has been meandering over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in recent days and it looks like it will continue to do so for the next few days. As a result, it is very likely to soon intensify into named tropical storm status (would be called “Wilfred”) and it could ultimately have an impact pretty much anywhere on the Gulf coast from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, Teddy has become a major hurricane over the central Atlantic and it is likely headed to near the island of Bermuda over the next few days. After that, the storm track forecast gets more complicated for Hurricane Teddy as it will encounter a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere with strong high pressure ridging over southeastern Canada and an upper-level trough over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It is unclear as to whether this interaction will cause a turn to the northwest and perhaps towards northern New England/Southeastern Canada or if Hurricane Teddy will goes harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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There are currently five systems in the Atlantic Basin that are characterized as tropical depression or greater and that high number hasn’t happened since September of 1971. Currently, there are three systems that are classified as tropical storms, Sally, Teddy and Vicky, and one hurricane, Paulette, which passed over the island of Bermuda earlier today. Tropical Storm Sally is a slow-moving system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it may end up producing up to two feet of rain during the next couple of days in portions of the northern Gulf coastal region. After landfall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push to the north into southern Mississippi and then to the northeast through Alabama and Georgia – bringing some heavy rainfall along its path. The heaviest of the rain from Sally’s remains are likely to stay south of the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front barrels from northwest-to-southeast towards the eastern seaboard. That cold front will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the upcoming weekend.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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If you try to pinpoint the climatological peak in the Atlantic Basin tropical season to one particular day in terms of the number of active storms, it actually comes down to today, September 10th. Well, here we are and right on queue, there are numerous waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to just off the west coast of Africa. A few of these tropical waves are relatively close to the US and will have an impact in the near-term while another few systems are potential concerns for the second half of September. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean remains unusually quiet in terms of tropical activity in what should also be an active time of year. In fact, the overall tropical activity in the world’s largest ocean has been way below-normal in 2020 and this has contributed to a below-normal tropical season so far for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
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