A powerful storm system is churning northward today through the Appalachian Mountains and is having an important impact on a large part of the eastern third of the nation. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor has had steady and heavy rainfall this morning and the afternoon will present the possibility of some severe thunderstorm activity. Meanwhile, it is cold enough in the Midwest for snow to fall at mid-day and portions of the Ohio Valley will receive significant snowfall during the next 24 hours or so. An especially hard hit region may be northeastern Ohio where more than a foot of snow is possible in localized areas later tonight and Tuesday. This storm system is coming at the front end of an overall pattern change that will bring persistent colder conditions to the central and eastern US as we transition from the month of November to December.
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The weather pattern will get pretty interesting in much of the US as we transition to the month of December and it is likely to include some significant temperature and height anomalies for this time of year. High pressure ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere will intensify dramatically next week across Canada at the same time colder-than-normal air sets up across the central and eastern US and there will be plenty of strong energy aloft. The transition to this colder and stormy weather pattern in the central and eastern US (and warm weather pattern across Canada) could begin with a major storm system in the Monday/Tuesday time period (i.e., last day of November and first day of December). A second storm could threaten the east coast at the end of next week and that system should have more in the way of cold air to work with in the eastern states.
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The weather pattern will get pretty interesting next week to coincide with the beginning of the month of December and it will include some significant temperature and height anomalies across North America for this time of year. High pressure ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere will intensify dramatically next week across Canada at the same time colder-than-normal air sets up across the south-central US and there will be plenty of strong energy aloft. The transition to this possible colder and stormy weather pattern in the US (and warm weather pattern across Canada) could be preceded by a significant rain event in the eastern states as we end the month of November.
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The unseasonably warm conditions of last week and the earlier part of this week will be but a memory in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US by the time we get to the middle of next week. One strong cold front will arrive on Sunday night and usher in a chilly air mass for the middle of November as we begin the new work week and then a secondary cold front will push through by late Tuesday and pave the way for an even colder air mass by mid-week. Many spots in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US have already experienced at or below-freezing temperatures this season, but, if not, additional opportunities will come on both late Tuesday night and late Wednesday night of next week.
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Eta reached hurricane status this morning as a category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, but that is likely its peak intensity as it should weaken during the next several hours while encountering increasing vertical wind shear and some dry air. Nonetheless, much of western Florida - including the Tampa area - will experience heavy rain squalls today and tonight with localized flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes. As a weakening system on Thursday, the remains of Eta will cross the northern part of the Florida Peninsula and it should exit into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean around nightfall.
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Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this week as a category 4 (“major”) storm on the northeastern coastline of Nicaragua in Central America. After landfall, Eta brought torrential rainfall and widespread flooding to both Nicaragua and Honduras as it traveled slowly to the west. While over land, the system weakened into tropical depression status, but it has now emerged back out over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea just to the east of Belize. As such, it is likely to intensify as it treks northeastward this weekend and will likely return to at least tropical storm status by the time it reaches the island of Cuba for a second landfall. After that, Eta is likely head to the Florida Straits and could impact the Keys of southern Florida early next week – perhaps even as a hurricane.
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An extended stretch of mild weather has begun in the eastern half of the nation as strong high pressure ridging dominates at all levels of the atmosphere. Given the time of year with increasingly long nights, this mild weather pattern will be quite conducive to the formation of late night and early morning fog. At the same time, much of the western US experiences will experience colder-than-normal conditions in coming days with upper-level low pressure in control.
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Eta is a “major” hurricane and is edging its way to the northeastern coastline of Nicaragua in Central America. The extreme strength of Hurricane Eta combined with its very slow movement is bad news as it will likely result in catastrophic wind damage, tremendous rainfall amounts of up to three feet in some spots, and landslides in some of the higher terrain sections of Central America. After landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later today, Hurricane Eta will inch slowly westward over the next couple of days and push over Honduras on Thursday. Later in the week, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta (or its remnants) to turn northward and then to the northeast. This change in course will likely result in a re-strengthening of Eta as it pushes back out over the open waters of the western Caribbean Sea by the early part of the weekend and then the threat from this tropical system will perhaps shift to Cuba and southern Florida by the latter part of the weekend or early part of next week.
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The calendar has flipped to November, but the unfolding weather pattern suggests tropical threats are not over just yet for the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US. Hurricane Eta has strengthened into a strong category 2 storm in the western Caribbean and it is headed for a landfall in Central America in the near term – likely as a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). In fact, there is a decent chance that Hurricane Eta strengthens into category 4 “major” hurricane status before making landfall early Tuesday in the country of Nicaragua. After landfall, Hurricane Eta will push westward and likely reach Honduras later in the week and then it may skirt Belize as it heads back to the open waters of the still warm western Caribbean Sea. It is at this time that the concern may begin to increase significantly for residents in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US as whatever remains of Eta could re-strengthen and push northward towards the US by early next week.
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The remains of Hurricane Zeta are now racing to the northeast and are resulting in a widespread heavy rain event today from the Appalachian Mountains to New England. This system will push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline early tonight, but a second low will form in the same general region by early tomorrow as a vigorous upper-level low arrives from the Tennessee Valley. This second storm will pull in colder air from the northwest by early tomorrow and the rain is likely to change to snow in interior, higher elevations sections of the Northeast US with small accumulations on the table in places like the Poconos (PA), Catskills, and Hudson Valley region of New York State. The first freeze will take place late tomorrow night in many spots of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and a cold Halloween Day will follow. Another cold blast arrives on Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold weather conditions with “lake effect” snows around the Great Lakes and to the western side of the Appalachians.
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