An energetic stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region with the arrival of a strong cold front on Friday night that will lead to periods of rain and a possible thunderstorm or two. On Saturday, deepening low pressure in the upper atmosphere will pass overhead leading to somewhat unsettled conditions with increasing winds and a possible snow shower or two. The air turns colder on Saturday and the wind will become noticeable out of the northwest and snow showers will be possible at any time. While there will be some sunshine on Sunday, winds will remain quite noticeable and it’ll remain on the chilly side in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A stratospheric warming event that began several weeks ago has set off a chain of events in the atmosphere to bring some severe cold and snow to portions of Europe and Asia in recent days. Meanwhile, much of the northern part of the US has experienced above-normal temperatures in the first ten days of January, but the overall pattern is undergoing some important changes that will likely result in much colder weather during the second half of the month. Specifically, the overall pattern aloft will evolve into one which features high-latitude blocking across Greenland/northeastern Canada and high pressure ridging across the west coasts of Canada and the US. This change will allow for the transport of very cold air masses from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we progress through the latter half of January.
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Changes to the overall upper-level pattern across North America during the next week or so will result in much colder air for the second half of the month of January in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. The upper part of the atmosphere will evolve into a pattern that features high-latitude blocking across Greenland/northeastern Canada, high pressure ridging across the west coasts of Canada and the US, and even “cross-polar” flow which could transport Siberian air to this side of the North Pole. In addition, numerous waves of energy aloft will ensure the recent active weather pattern continues with numerous storm threats in coming days for much of the nation. One storm system will bring accumulating snow on Friday to the southern Appalachians from northeastern Georgia to southwestern Virginia and another system next week could threaten the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with snow and/or rain.
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While there certainly has been some moderate cold in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the first part of the month, the overall weather pattern that is unfolding will likely result in much colder air relative-to-normal for the second half of the month of January. The upper part of the atmosphere will evolve into a pattern that features high-latitude blocking across Greenland/northeastern Canada and high pressure ridging across the west coasts of Canada and the US. This combination will allow for the transport of increasingly cold air masses into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US as we progress through January. In addition, numerous waves of energy aloft will ensure the active pattern continues as well with many storm threats to come in coming days for much of the nation.
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The overall weather pattern has been quite active in recent days in the eastern US with two different storm systems impacting the area in just the last three days. Numerous signs in the atmosphere point to a continuation of the stormy weather pattern in coming weeks across the eastern US and it is likely to become increasingly colder - raising the chances for accumulating snow. An on-going stratospheric warming event raises the prospects for high-latitude blocking in coming weeks which, in turn, increases the chance for increasingly colder outbreaks into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Teleconnection trends in such indices as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) support the notion for a sustained period of high-latitude blocking which, in turn, would be more favorable for coastal storm development. In the near-term, one storm will likely push to the Carolina coastline on Friday and it may then stay to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as it heads out-to-sea - but it still needs to be closely monitored. Another winter storm is likely to threaten the southern and eastern US during the early or middle parts of next week as the active pattern continues.
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An active weather pattern will continue into the new year for the eastern half of the nation with one low pressure system bringing a potpourri of precipitation on Friday and then a second system late in the weekend that should intensify near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The first system will result in accumulating snow for parts of the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley on New Year’s Day (Friday) and mainly a rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region. However, it can be cold enough at the onset on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region for a brief period of sleet and/or freezing; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border. Late in the weekend, a second low pressure system will likely intensify near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it would have an influx of colder air – a potential setup that needs to be monitored in coming days.
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A powerful cold front will come barreling towards the eastern seaboard later this week and it’ll bring some wild weather with it to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Christmas Eve (Thursday) into early Christmas Day (Friday). Ahead of the front, there will be heavy rain, possible strong thunderstorms, and potentially damaging winds which, unfortunately, raises the prospects of power outages. It’ll become much milder as well on Thursday with temperatures likely flirting with the 60 degree mark for late day highs in places like DC, Philly and NYC. The combination of heavy rainfall and mild conditions will cause a rapid melting of snow and this is likely to lead to localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.
On the back side of the front, temperatures will drop rapidly following the heavy rain event to below the freezing mark in many spots resulting in a quick freeze-up of standing water on untreated surfaces. Snow accumulations of several inches are likely in the colder air mass across portions of the Ohio Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. There can even be a brief changeover to sleet and/or snow in the I-95 corridor early Friday morning as the colder air rushes into the region, but a “flash freeze” is the greater concern.
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An active weather pattern continues this week in the central and eastern US with the main weather event being the late week passage of a powerful Arctic cold frontal system. This front will result in a heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from late Thursday into Thursday night which will be accompanied by strong winds, mild conditions and a possible thunderstorm. With snow cover still in place in many areas north of the PA/MD border, the upcoming heavy rain event may lead to localized flooding conditions.
Behind the front, temperatures will drop sharply potentially leading to a quick ice-up in some spots and inland areas from West Virginia to central/western NY will likely see accumulating snow. In fact, there can even be some small accumulations of snow early Friday in the I-95 corridor on the heels of the frontal passage; especially, in some of the northern and western suburbs. The much colder air that arrives on Christmas Day (Friday) will stick around into the upcoming weekend and next week promises to be quite energetic with the potential of multiple storm threats to monitor.
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The first major winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US has just passed and the overall weather pattern is likely to remain quite volatile through the remainder of the month. There will be numerous strong waves of energy in coming days that will head into the eastern states. In addition, all signs point to a continuation of cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US over the next couple of weeks. In fact, perhaps the coldest air mass of the season so far could push into the central US by the middle of next week and arrive in the eastern states by Christmas Day (Friday). There is also a chance that heavy rain and accumulating snow will accompany the arrival of the cold blast late next week in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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The first major winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US is winding down today and there will be lots of cold air in its wake. In fact, the next several days are likely to remain colder-than-normal in the eastern US and there are increasing signs for a significant cold blast late next week – just in time for Christmas Day. In addition to the threat for more cold weather, it looks like volatile weather will continue next week and beyond with several impressive waves of energy to monitor that will be heading into the eastern states.
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