One strong storm system has impacted the west coast states from Washington-to-California in the past 24 hours or so with significant rainfall, but an even stronger storm is likely have an impact from Sunday into Monday. In fact, this next storm could become the strongest system in many years to impact the region from British Columbia (Canada) to California. Rainfall will be excessive with this next storm, winds will be powerful and potentially damaging, and snow will pile up in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California. The upper-level support for this system is likely to then cross the country next week and that could result in a mid-week severe weather outbreak and a late week storm near the eastern seaboard.
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Much of California and the rest of the western US has been experiencing “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions in recent weeks, but that could change in a big way in coming days. A very powerful storm will slam into the US west coast from Sunday into Monday and it could generate a foot or more of rain in the northern part of California and heavy snowfall across interior higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. In addition, winds associated with this monster storm are likely to be excessive and potentially damaging in many spots along the west coast and even inland. This same system is likely to cross the country later next week and it could wind up as a significant east coast storm by week’s end.
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The winter season of 2020-2021 featured La Nina conditions in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean which then weakened to near neutral status during the spring and summer of this year. New cooling has formed in the same region and it appears that a second year La Nina will take place for the upcoming winter season. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean were but one of several factors considered in the 2021-2022 “Winter Outlook”.
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It has been a drab and dreary weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region during the past several days with plenty of low-level moisture and rather stubborn cloudiness. Thick clouds rule the skies today and will likely do so again for much of Wednesday; however, there is reason to believe sunshine will return later in the week and this will be accompanied by a warming trend. In fact, temperatures by Friday afternoon should climb into the 80’s across much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. A strong cold front arrives this weekend bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms and it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Sunday and Monday.
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The next week to ten days or so will feature quite differing weather conditions across the nation with colder-than-normal temperatures across the western half and warmer-than-normal in the eastern half. An upper-level trough of low pressure will park itself over the western US in coming days and a strong ridge of high pressure will center itself over eastern Canada and the eastern US. By the third week of October, this upper-level ridge of high pressure may “retrograde” back into central Canada and this shift could allow for a big cool down in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the 18th or 19th of October.
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October begins on Friday and there are several factors that I am closely monitoring which may give some clues as to what kind of winter weather we can expect in the Mid-Atlantic region. To begin, whenever dealing with longer-range forecasting such as with seasonal outlooks, I like to examine the current and projected sea surface temperatures around the world which can play an important role in an upcoming winter season across the US. The Pacific Ocean is most crucial as it is by far the largest body of water, but the water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean can be critical to a winter season; especially, in the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, though the sun is clearly crucial in the long-term when it comes to all weather and climate, it can actually play an important role in the shorter-term – such as during an upcoming winter season - depending on its overall activity levels. Finally, the building snowpack across the northern hemisphere this time of year is always of interest as it can play a role in the formation of cold air masses that can impact the US in subsequent winter months.
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A cold front continues to push slowly to the south and east today generating scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region and it should clear the coast by midnight. As a result, clearing skies will set in late tonight and it’ll turn quite cool by tomorrow morning with a few suburban locations likely to drop into the 40’s. In fact, the next few nights could feature overnight lows in the 40’s in suburban locations to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor. In terms of rainfall, following today’s frontal precipitation, it looks to be dry for the next few days following today’s precipitation associated with the cold frontal system.
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A significant rain event is now getting underway in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will continue into early Friday as a cold front inches its way across the area. This cold front has support aloft from a strong disturbance that will center itself over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and there will be plenty of low-level moisture within a persistent and broad south-to-southeast flow of air that is forming on its front side. Showers have already pushed into interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be an afternoon thunderstorm or two. The showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous on Thursday and Thursday night and some of the storms can reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes on the table. Flash flooding is an increasing concern in the Mid-Atlantic region given the already well-saturated grounds from recent significant rain events.
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There is a good chance for significant rainfall later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region as a cold front inches its way across the area. This cold front will have support aloft from a strong disturbance that will center itself over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and there will be plenty of low-level moisture within the broad south-to-southeast flow of air that forms on its front side. Showers are likely to first develop on Wednesday across western sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and then gradually spread eastward on Wednesday night and Thursday. There is also likely to be a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night to go along with the heavy rain threat.
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There is a chance for some significant rainfall later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region as a cold front inches its way across the area in the late Wednesday to late Thursday time period. The slow moving surface cold frontal system will have support aloft with a strong disturbance and will have lots of moisture to work with as a broad southerly flow of air develops just ahead of it. The front will be followed by cooler-than-normal air for the eastern states for the late week and the upcoming weekend.
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