Quite a muddy mess in the Mid-Atlantic region today with occasional rain, snowmelt, and some patchy fog as well - all out ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system that has wreaked havoc on much of the heartland during the past couple of days with snow, ice and rain. That cold front will inch its way across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor tomorrow morning and an Arctic air mass will filter into the region from the northwest-to-southeast. After a very mild start early in the day along the immediate I-95 corridor, temperatures will fall throughout the remainder of Friday following the passage of the Arctic front. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early tomorrow can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces by mid-day or early afternoon across suburban locations to the north and west. The rain can also mix with or change to sleet and/or snow for a brief time later in the day on Friday. It does appear that the icing potential in this case will be rather limited in nature around here as drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable amounts of precipitation while we are on the cold side of the front. Temperatures are likely to continue to drop tomorrow night which can lead to a quick freeze-up of any standing water that still remains.
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Phil saw his shadow this morning in upstate Pennsylvania signaling there will be 6 more weeks of winter which is probably the right forecast as it looks now. At the very least, it is looking quite wintry going into the middle of the month for much of the central and eastern US as additional cold air outbreaks are quite likely and there should be other storm threats as well. A slow-moving Arctic frontal system is the focus of attention today across the nation’s heartland as it is being accompanied by a little bit of ice in some spots and a lot of snow in other areas.
After a mild and wet Thursday and Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic, this slow-moving cold front will inch its way across the region early Friday morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from northwest-to-southeast. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early Friday can begin to freeze on some surfaces in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor potentially leading to an icy mess; especially, in some of the suburbs to the north and west. Later Friday, the precipitation can change from freezing rain to sleet and then perhaps for a brief time to all snow before winding down early Friday night. Temperatures are likely to drop sharply on Friday night so any roads that remain wet can quickly “freeze-up” - including in those areas along coastal New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula where temperatures may not drop to freezing until early Friday night.
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Tomorrow is Ground Hog Day and if I could provide some advice to my fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator, it would be to lean towards the prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. At least it is looking quite wintry for the next few weeks in much of the central and eastern US as cold air outbreaks will continue and there are likely to be multiple storm threats on the table. The next few days will feature a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system across the nation’s heartland that will be the focus area for all kinds of precipitation. There will be rain and thunderstorms on the warm side of the front (southeast) and ice and snow on its cold side (northwest). In fact, the ice and snow will impact a large region of the country extending from the Southwest US to the Northeast US before the week is done with some regions likely to experience substantial snowfall and other areas to suffer with some serious icing.
In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, Thursday will start off as a relatively mild day with some rainfall, but interior sections may begin to see a changeover to ice and/or snow later in the day as low-level Arctic air filters in. Sometime on Friday the rain can change to ice and/or snow in the immediate I-95 corridor with the arrival of the Arctic air and by Friday night, temperatures could be dropping rather sharply - potentially setting the stage for a quick “freeze-up”. Looking ahead and this is still in the speculation phase, another storm system is likely to develop near the Southeast US coastline early this weekend and it could result in some snow/ice in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day today and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system will easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and then the main event will come tonight and Saturday from this intensifying storm. Very cold air will push into the eastern states during the height of the storm on Saturday and it’ll be bitter cold tomorrow night with brutal wind chills. This Arctic blast will plunge all the way down to southern Florida and even to Cuba. Miami is likely to experience lows in the 30’s this weekend for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out during the day on Friday across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US as an Arctic cold frontal system arrives and small accumulations are even possible. The main event by the rapidly intensifying ocean storm will take place on Friday night and Saturday. Very cold air will follow on its heels later this weekend all the way down to the southern part of Florida where Miami could see lows in the 30’s for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The exact timing of the rapid intensification and the ultimate track of the storm are still somewhat unclear at this time and while a significant impact appears quite likely for eastern New England, there is a chance that at least part of the Mid-Atlantic region escapes with only a moderate or minor impact.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this week across the eastern US and there is continued potential for an intense ocean storm at week’s end. Many ingredients are likely to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure somewhere off the US east coast. These ingredients include the following: strong jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of very cold air to the north and west, relatively warm waters in the western Atlantic, and deepening low pressure aloft that will at some point take on a “negative” tilt in its axis orientation. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding intense ocean storm scenario.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is growing potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the Friday night/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure including the following: jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of cold air to the north and west, and deepening low pressure aloft that takes on a “negative” tilt. At this time, it is just too early to tell if this ocean storm will track well off the coast, close in or perhaps even ends up taking a slightly inland track which is a scenario that is still on the table though not too likely. It certainly looks like it’ll be an interesting next few days as we track this growing threat.
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An Arctic frontal system will work its way through the Mid-Atlantic region early tomorrow and some “post-frontal” snow can cause slick spots on the roads from about the time of the AM rush hour to around mid-day. Rain will break out later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ahead of the Arctic front, but then as colder air filters into the region, precipitation will mix with and then change over to snow right around morning commute time on Thursday. Accumulations are likely to end up in the 1-3 inch range by mid-day tomorrow after the changeover takes place. Bitter cold conditions will follow the system for tomorrow night and Friday with overnight lows in the 10-15 degree range and highs doing no better than the 20’s to end the work week.
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An Arctic frontal boundary zone will be a key player in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days as it will be a focus area for the formation of low pressure systems. One such low pressure system should bring a period of accumulating snow early Thursday upon the arrival of the next Arctic blast. Another low pressure system will form along the stalled-out frontal boundary zone at week’s end and the extent to which it can push to the north will dictate how much snow, if any, can fall on Friday night and/or Saturday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system will have to be watched for later in the upcoming weekend as the cold and active weather pattern in the eastern US will continue right through the rest of the month.
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