The combination of an upper-level trough, high moisture content in the lower atmosphere, and a weak frontal boundary zone will be enough to result in very unstable atmospheric conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early tonight enhancing the chance for severe thunderstorm activity. A somewhat similar setup will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, the 4th of July, with the greatest chance once again coming during the afternoon and early evening hours. Not all areas will get hit during this next 36 hours, but any thunderstorm that does form can contain torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado or two. The overall unsettled weather pattern that began in late June may relax a bit on Wednesday and Thursday; however, it should resume in full force by the end of the shortened work week and continue through the upcoming weekend.
Read More
The atmosphere will quickly destabilize today in the Mid-Atlantic region raising the chance for severe thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight. Any thunderstorm can produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. Torrential rainfall can lead to flash flooding conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in those areas hit hard by downpours this past weekend. The threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday and the overall wet weather pattern looks like it’ll resume at week’s end after a short-break and continue into the first half of next week.
Read More
Lawns were turning brown and soil moisture was at very low levels earlier this month and during the month of May in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. There have been a couple of rain events in the past couple of weeks that have alleviated the dry conditions; especially, in areas to the north of the PA/MD border. The overall weather pattern is now evolving into one that will bring copious amounts of rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region in coming days and it may get to the point in which many will say “we’re now getting too much of a good thing”.
Read More
The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has come to life in recent days with two systems located in the tropical Atlantic. The front running system has reached named tropical storm status (“Bret”) and it could very well intensify into a hurricane during the next couple of days as it heads towards the eastern Caribbean Sea. Later in the week, however, a few factors are likely to come together to cause a weakening of this initial tropical system. A second system following closely behind Bret could reach named tropical storm status as well in coming days (would become “Cindy”) as it heads on a general westward track.
Read More
Much-needed rainfall fell in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with 1-2 inches commonplace across eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and western New Jersey. The next several days will bring additional chances of rain to the area with the first threat coming on Wednesday as an upper-level low pressure system moves close by. As a result, the atmosphere will destabilize later tomorrow as colder air moves in aloft and an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms is quite likely. In fact, some of the thunderstorms that do form later tomorrow can become quite strong with brief downpours and small hail a possibility. Another batch of showers is possible on Friday as another upper-level low spins its way into the Mid-Atlantic region and yet another disturbance can raise the chances for rain in the Monday/Tuesday time frame.
Read More
It is quite common to have a “Bermuda High” type of weather pattern in the eastern US this time of year with high pressure stationed over the western Atlantic and southwesterly flow of air pushing hot and humid air to the Mid-Atlantic region from the Gulf of Mexico. Our current weather pattern is about as opposite as you can get with a meandering upper-level low centered over Maine/Nova Scotia leading to persistent northwesterly flow in the lower part of the atmosphere. This type of wind flow is influencing the weather in multiple ways.
First, it is leading to quite comfortable temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region for the early part of June and, second, it is resulting in unusually low humidity levels. In addition, this persistent northwesterly flow continues to bring smoke into the area from wildfires that developed several days ago in Quebec, Canada. In fact, the most dense smoke of all in this current outbreak may push into New York City, Pennsylvania and New Jersey this afternoon and evening and the smell of smoke should become much more noticeable. In terms of rainfall, there were scattered late day showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and a couple of troughs can bring isolated showers/thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week. Looking ahead, there is a glimmer of hope for a more appreciable rainfall early next week with another upper-level low likely to spin into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Great Lakes.
Read More
The central third of the nation will be the part of the country with the most rainfall in coming days and also the highest likelihood for severe weather. An area of focus for the rainfall will be the state of Texas with a big concern for excessive amounts in the Texas/Mexico Rio Grande border region. Severe weather including isolated tornadoes is a threat today from Kansas-to-Oklahoma and to the east of there across Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. Severe weather will remain as a threat in the same (central) part of the nation in coming days as well.
Read More
An active weather pattern will continue across the nation into early May largely fueled by the continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US. One such cold shot will push east on Thursday from the south-central states into the northern Gulf region and this “clash” between the incoming cold, dry air and the entrenched warm, humid air mass is likely to result in strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from Texas-to-Florida and perhaps as far north as the Tennessee Valley.
This storm system will push northeast on Friday and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline later Friday night. A similar scenario will develop from Sunday into Monday with an initial (primary) low pushing towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm likely to form near the northeastern US coastline. The end result…back-to-back soaking rain events for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from Friday into Monday.
Following the passage of the second storm system, very chilly air for early May will flood the northeastern quadrant of the country for the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and the atmosphere will be quite unstable. As a result, there are likely to be some instability rain showers during the first half of next week and snowflakes and/or ice pellets can mix in across some of the higher-elevation, interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
Read More
Cold air outbreaks continue to work their way from Canada into the US as we wind down the month of April and it appears they will continue to do so right through the early part of May. As long as this kind of pattern holds, there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather outbreaks in the US and an increased chance for the formation of strong storm systems. In fact, more severe weather is possible on Wednesday in places like Texas and Oklahoma as cold, dry air advances from the west and clashes with entrenched warm, humid air across the south-central US. This severe weather threat will then shift eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, there are signs for a soaking rain event in the eastern US from Friday into Saturday and then a second and perhaps stronger system may form later in the weekend and produce more significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This second storm system may feature some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity of its own in its warm sector from late Sunday into Monday and perhaps even some wet snow and/or ice on its cold side in some of the higher-elevation, interior spots of the northeastern US…just as we begin the month of May.
Read More
Tropical activity is likely to be nearly normal this season in the Atlantic Basin with competing factors in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 of those actually attain “major” classification status (i.e., category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).
The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally acts to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin due to increased wind shear. The development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures comes after three years of La Nina conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean features plenty of warmer-than-normal water which is generally favorable for the development and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic Ocean makes the east coast somewhat more vulnerable than normal to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
Read More
