The unusual early season chill will moderate some today and tomorrow, but it’ll stay below-normal for the middle of November and we’ll take another downward step on Saturday following the passage of another cold frontal system. High temperatures on Friday afternoon will be near the 50 degree mark in the NYC metro region, but will likely hold in the upper 30's on Saturday afternoon. By late in the weekend and early next week, we’ll have to watch a strengthening low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean which could impact coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic region. A second coastal low will have to be monitored for the middle of next week.
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Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month. In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern. For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.
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Low temperature records were set this morning in dozens and dozens of locations across the eastern US including at the following nearby stations: JFK, LGA, Newark, NJ and Central Park, NY. In fact, Central Park has had record lows 3 times in just the past few days (11/8, 11/12, 11/13). Despite plenty of sunshine today, temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 30's which may be the “lowest” high temperature ever recorded here on November 13th. The unusual early season chill will only slowly moderate on Thursday and Friday and then take a step backwards on Saturday following the passage of another cold front which may knock ten degrees off the afternoon highs between Friday and Saturday. By early next week, we’ll have to watch low pressure near the coastline as it tracks northeastward over the western Atlantic.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
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An Arctic air mass has arrived in the I-95 corridor and temperatures have already peaked for the day and will drop into the 30's as the day progresses. Rain associated with the arrival of the Arctic front may change briefly to snow before the precipitation winds down - watch for "black ice" later in the day as temperatures near the freezing mark. By late tonight, temperatures could be in record low territory in the upper teens - way below-normal for the middle of November. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to pass the freezing mark for highs which may turn out to be the "lowest" high temperature ever recorded for the date.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass will pass through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early tomorrow morning and it will likely result in a rain-changing-to-snow weather scenario. This Arctic blast is likely to result in numerous daily record lows across the central and eastern US over the next few days and, in some cases, perhaps the lowest temperatures ever recorded for this early in the season. In addition, significant accumulating snow is likely over the next 24-36 hours from Ohio/Michigan to western New York to northern New England. Rain should arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC just before daybreak and then, as colder air filters into the region, a changeover to snow for a brief time is likely not only in the immediate I-95 corridor, but ultimately all the way to the coastline. The precipitation will wind down later tomorrow and then temperatures will drop to the upper teens in many spots by early Wednesday morning – perhaps breaking low temperature records in some locations. The much colder-than-normal conditions will stick around into Thursday and then some moderation will take place at the end of the week, but temperatures will remain below-normal.
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First let me mention that today is "Mercury transit day"...a rare astronomical event and the skies are cooperating (see perspectaweather.com for more. A much colder-than-normal air mass for this time of year will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region early Tuesday. There will be a period of rain from late tonight into tomorrow morning which may change to snow for a brief time as the colder air filters into the region. Temperatures tomorrow night will drop to the upper teens in some spots and some records could fall by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will then struggle to reach the mid 30's on Wednesday – some 25 degrees below normal for this time of year. The unusual early season chill will stick around on Thursday and then there will be some moderation in temperatures at week’s end, but still remaining colder-than-normal.
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The first seven days of November have averaged more than 2.6ºC colder-than-normal across the nation and there is another very impressive cold air outbreak on the way for the eastern two-thirds. The first blast of much colder-than-normal air arrived in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the overnight hours and tonight will be the coldest so far this season. The next shot of Arctic air is already building up in Canada and it will reach the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later in the weekend, cross the Great Lakes on Monday, and then into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Tuesday. This blast of Arctic air will not only spread out across a larger portion of the country compared to the initial shot, but it will be even colder. In fact, numerous daily low temperature records are likely to be set next week across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there will likely be many sites recording their lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season.
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A much colder-than-normal air mass with its origins in northern Canada arrived in the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and the next couple of days will be well below-normal for this time of year. Another cold blast will push across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes early next week and arrive here by Tuesday night. Next week's cold blast could feature a rain-changing-to-snow scenario at the onset, but it doesn't look like anything significant at this time.
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One cold shot is headed this way from northern Canada and another one is coming for the early and middle parts of next week. As the cold air pushes to the southeast later today, moisture will push northeast along the advancing frontal boundary zone and rain is likely here late in the day and early tonight. The rain could mix with some flakes before ending tonight as the colder air pours into the region and the next two days will see highs confined to the 40's. Next week's cold blast could feature a rain-changing-to-snow scenario at the onset in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US.
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