“Isaias” weakened slightly yesterday into “tropical storm” status and it remains so early Sunday morning despite a burst of deep convection in the overnight hours. That burst of thunderstorm activity has not resulted in any significant improvement in the overall structure of “Isaias” which is currently about 40 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, FL and it is not outside the realm of possibility that it regains enough strength later today to reach weak hurricane status. Nonetheless, “Isaias” will ride up to fairly close to the east-central coastline of Florida with some heavy rainfall and strong winds to last about 12 hours or so once they begin later this morning. On Monday, “Isaias” will begin to take a turn to the north and then northeast and likely make landfall somewhere in the Carolinas - perhaps as a hurricane. After that, “Isaias” will continue to ride up along the east coast and generate a major rain and wind event for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US - ultimately resulting in impact extending all the from Florida to Maine.
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“Isaias” became the second hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season in the overnight hours as it pulled away from the island of Hispaniola and out over the very warm waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean. The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start - now with nine named systems – and it will very likely remain quite dynamic as we begin the month of August. In fact, a couple other tropical waves are now churning over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic - virtually guaranteeing the energetic season will continue in coming days. Hurricane “Isaias” is likely to continue on a NW track over the next 24-36 hours that will bring to a position just off the east coast of Florida this weekend with significant impacts to the Bahama Islands and southern/eastern Florida. “Isaias” is now classified as a category 1 hurricane and there is a chance it intensifies to a category 2 storm before it makes its closest approach to Florida’s east coast. After that, “Isaias” may very well ride up along the east coast ultimately resulting in a significant rain event all the way from Florida to eastern New England.
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A meandering frontal system will keep it unsettled around here through the upcoming weekend with a shot at showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis and there is potential today for some heavy rainfall. A bigger story will be the drop in temperatures with highs today doing no better than the 80 degree mark and highs should be generally confined to the 80's over the next several days. Meanwhile, Hurricane “Isaias” is going to significantly impact the Bahamas and southern/eastern Florida over the next 24-48 hours and then its moisture field could ride up along the east coast during the early part of next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start now with nine named storms - the newest one being “Isaias”. Tropical Storm “Isaias” has been pounding away at Puerto Rico since last night with torrential rainfall and is now interacting with the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic). This particular island has mountainous terrain with peaks of over 10,000 feet and it is likely to limit the intensification of “Isaias” – at least in the short-term. In addition, an interaction with this northern Caribbean island frequently causes a “re-positioning” of the low-level circulation center of a given tropical cyclone so we’ll look for that to take place over the next 12-24 hours. After that, Tropical Storm “Isasis” is likely to significantly impact the Bahama Islands - perhaps as a hurricane - and likely take a track over or just off the east coast of Florida with substantial rainfall and strong winds on the table. There is a chance that the moisture field of the tropical storm then rides up along the southeast US coastline to the Carolinas - and potentially as far north as the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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A stalled-out frontal system will lift north today and raise chances for isolated PM showers and thunderstorms. It’ll stay unsettled again on Friday with the front remaining in close proximity and there can be some heavy rainfall. This same front will meander in the Mid-Atlantic region all weekend long keeping it unsettled. Temperatures will edge downward on Friday with highs confined to the 80's and the 80's should rule right into the early part of next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaias will likely have a significant impact on the Bahamas and Florida this weekend and its moisture field could ride up along the east coast early next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another wave that has reached the Caribbean Sea is quite likely to become the ninth (“Isaias”). This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and had somewhat limited intensification possibilities over the past few days as it battled with dry air in the central Atlantic that originated over the Sahara Desert region of northern Africa. As such, the tropical wave appeared rather elongated and disorganized yesterday morning, but has since “escaped” the dry air mass and is now becoming better organized. There is a good chance that this system will reach tropical storm status in the next 24 hours and continue on a west-to-northwest track which will result in an impact on the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba as well as the Bahamas.
After that, the tropical system may very well impact Florida by later Saturday, but its intensification prospects beforehand may be somewhat limited due to its possible interaction with these islands and a possible increase in southwesterly wind shear. By early next week, the tropical system could begin to take a more northerly track as it interacts with an unusually strong upper-level trough that will be “digging” into the south-central US and slowing down in its eastward progression. As a result, its moisture field could very well ride northward along the east coast in the early part of next week - potentially resulting in a significant rain event all the way from Florida to the Northeast US.
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A cool frontal system passed through the region last night and the result should be a rain-free day; however, it stays rather hot with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 90’s. That same front stalls out just south of here today and low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary zone on Thursday into Friday leading to more unsettled weather conditions. In addition, it should turn cooler on Friday with highs likely confined to the middle 80’s as we close out the work week. Elsewhere, a tropical system continues on a track that should take it towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then perhaps to the southern part of Florida by the latter part of the weekend. This system could ultimately have an impact on the rest of the eastern US during the early part of next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave closing in on the Lesser Antilles. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next couple of days as it continues on a general west-to-northwest track. There is a high probability that this system intensifies enough to become classified as a tropical storm and, if so, it would be named “Isaias” – the ninth named storm of the still relatively young 2020 tropical season and the earliest date for the “I” storm. There is a good chance that this system continues on a track that’ll bring it to near Puerto Rico later this week and then to the southern Bahama Islands at weeks end. After that, there is a growing chance that the likely-to-be-named “Isaias” will threaten Florida and the Southeast US by the latter part of the upcoming weekend.
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The week started off on a hot note with no rain-fall on Monday, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase later today as a cool frontal system approaches the region. Any thunderstorm late today or early tonight associated with the frontal system can be on the strong side. The front will tend to push very slowly southward through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. As a result, it'll stay somewhat unsettled and our temperatures will trend slightly downward by week's end with highs on Friday likely confined to the middle 80’s.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave over the central Atlantic. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next few days as it takes a general W-NW track. There is a good chance that this system moves first towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then to near the Bahamas over the next several days. Whether or not this tropical system ultimately impacts the Southeast US may be largely dependent on an unusually strong upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central states by the weekend.
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