Hurricane Laura came ashore last night in southwestern Louisiana as a category 4 storm and its remains will have an impact on the weather here on Saturday. A warm frontal system lifted northward through the region in the overnight hours and temperatures today will spike to the 90 degree mark. The sudden surge of heat will also come with a threat of late day or nighttime showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can reach severe levels. Another frontal system will advance this way on Saturday and will combine with the remnants of Hurricane Laura as they push east from the Tennessee Valley region. As a result, rain is likely here on Saturday, some of it can be heavy at times, and there can be some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. All of this activity will push off the coast by Sunday and as high pressure returns so will the sunshine and the new air mass will be very comfortable for this time of year with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels.
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Hurricane Laura has reached “major” hurricane status as a category 3 storm and it should intensify into a category 4 system this afternoon as it heads on a collision course with the Texas/Louisiana border region and expected landfall later tonight. Hurricane Laura intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours in a favorable environment of low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures and continues to intensify today - now just a bit under the required levels for a category 4 classification. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall later tonight, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states on Thursday producing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and damaging wind gusts. By the early part of the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will turn to the east and get intertwined with a frontal system and an incoming vigorous upper-level trough to potentially produce some heavy rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Once off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the remnants of Hurricane Laura could actually re-intensify as it moves out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic.
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A cold front passed through the region late yesterday and the result today will be quieter weather and very comfortable temperatures with afternoon highs near the 80 degree mark. This same front will turn around and push northward as a warm front later on Thursday and our temperatures are likely to spike to 90 degrees for afternoon highs. After that, we’ll monitor the remains of Hurricane Laura as they could push northward into the south-central US later in the week and then eastward this weekend into the Mid-Atlantic region – potentially resulting in some heavy rainfall around here on Saturday and possible severe weather.
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A cold front is pushing towards the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it is going to generate thunderstorms in the region late today and early tonight and some of the storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. A line of thunderstorms is now showing up on radar across northwestern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and these will likely strengthen and expand in coverage this afternoon as they move into increasingly unstable air. The most likely timetable for thunderstorm activity in the I-95 corridor is 5-9 PM.
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Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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A cold front will approach the region later today and there are likely to be scattered PM showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. After a generally quiet day on Wednesday, this same front will lift back to the north as a warm front by early Thursday and our temperatures are likely to spike into the middle 90’s for afternoon highs. After that, we’ll monitor the remains of Tropical Storm Laura as they could push northward into the south-central US later in the week and then could turn eastward and impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday – potentially bringing some heavy rainfall here and strong thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Laura could reach "major" hurricane status before making landfall late Wednesday night possibly near the TX/LA border.
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While the main focus of attention has been on tropical activity in recent days, there has been some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region and that threat will continue from this afternoon into mid-week. A surface trough of low pressure situated in the I-95 corridor is helping to fuel the formation of numerous showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these will make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later in the day and early tonight. A cold frontal system will then approach the I-95 corridor later Tuesday and it too can generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. As that same frontal system stalls out just to the south of here on Wednesday, there still can be some strong thunderstorm activity to monitor at mid-week.
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Tropical Storm Marco is undergoing weakening as it approaches the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The wind shear is being generated in an area that is between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level ridge to the east. There is little chance that Marco intensifies from this point on and it should fall apart over the next few days. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Laura is moving along the southern part of Cuba and it will enter the Gulf of Mexico by early tomorrow and likely intensify into hurricane status as it rides over the very warm waters. Tropical Storm Laura is then likely to heads towards the border region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall as a hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday. The remains of the Tropical Storm Laura could actually bring some heavy rainfall to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region by the upcoming weekend. In the near-term, there can be scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight and more numerous storms on Tuesday – some of which can be strong-to-severe.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues and there is likely to a “double-strike” of tropical storms on the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Marco is now out over the open waters of the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is likely headed towards a landfall on Monday in the central Gulf region (Louisiana). Tropical Storm Marco is now flirting with hurricane status and its trek over the very warm water of the Gulf could give it the boost needed to attain category one hurricane status. Tropical Storm Laura is currently interacting with the island of Hispaniola and it too is likely to make a run towards the central Gulf region (Louisiana/Texas border region) by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Laura may also get a boost from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which could boost it to hurricane status before landfall later in the week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and two systems are likely to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico by the early and middle parts of next week. One system is likely to cross over or right near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then push over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. A second system is likely headed near or over the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the near-term and then perhaps through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Both of these systems are likely to intensify into named tropical storms status – one would be “Laura” and the other “Marco” – and perhaps even to hurricane status before possible landfalls next week as high sea surface temperatures will aid in further intensification.
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